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That said, a further trend was followed in that a win was eked out regardless of performance, which, based purely on xG difference, was merited.

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As of this writing, no news has been announced, but we trudge on nonetheless as if it may be coming.

Baur’s 2024-2025 season did not include material minutes at any particular club/level, so I focused this exercise on his 2023-2024 season in Bundesliga 3 playing at Freiberg II, and then 2025-2026 at Paderborn in Bundesliga 2.

The first thing that jumped out to me across both seasons is his positional flexibility and that he has played in a variety of roles across midfield and also as a wide attacker at times. I decided to keep his peer group for benchmarking as central midfielders for both seasons. For both seasons I have included a teammate with whom to compare that also played in central midfield.

The first graphic for the season showed him to be a material attacking contributor, primary dead ball deliverer, and generally a very attack-minded passer when he played the ball forward. Average chance quality for shooting not good and volume of open play shot assists (which were required to generate expected assists) on the low side.

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This will be painful as he is one of the leadership group, to flaunt that much loved phrase, an international player with multi–World Cup experiences, and whose return at the end of last season coincided with the winning run that led to a double.

How difficult will he be to replace?

Let’s find out!

*Sigh*

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Last season was a turbulent one for Celtic FC and its fans. The club seemed dysfunctional at every level, and relationships were strained between the players and coaches, the board, and the fans. Performances were patchy. There was no plain sailing as the club was buffeted by storms for the duration of the campaign. Like, I am sure, most other Huddle Breakdown readers and listeners, one event shocked me to my core - Martin O’Neill said that he didn’t much care for Expected Goals!

How could The Blessed Martin dismiss the foundational metric of probability-based football analysis so casually? My soul was torn by his treacherous disdain for the Mother of All Metrics.

Aye, well maybe. Let’s take a closer look at what we get from our favourite estimate-of-likelihood.

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Boniface moved to USG in 2022-2023, which was the same season Joel Mvuka went to FC Lorient for €5.5 million. Patrick Berg went to Lens for €4.5 million the prior season, and Jens Hauge to AC Milan for €4.8 million during the COVID season, both of whom are back at Bodo/Glimt for sums below for which they were sold.

More recently, in the 2023-2024 season they sold Hugo Vetlesen to Club Brugge for €7.75 million and Faris Moumbagne to Marseille for €8 million, with the former being a productive attacking midfielder in Belgium. They purchased Albert Gronbaek in 2022-2023 for €4.8 from Aarhus, then sold him for what appears to be the current club record sale of €15 million to Stade Rennais in 2024-2025. He’s gone on loans to Southampton, Genoa, and Hamburg, with the latter just paying €4.7 million to acquire him permanently.

Bodo/Glimt have been part of the peer group within the player trading benchmarking I conduct on Celtic each season - the most recent edition available here. Given the history, and particularly with attacking players, it is understandable for people to have some concerns about a “curse.”

Of course, in Huddle Breakdown Land, I see more misattribution vs a curse.

This first graphic displays basic performance metrics from their respective domestic league seasons, with 2026 current 15 games into the season. Per a quick web search, it appears their annual revenues have more than doubled over this period, with the latest report for 2025 somewhere around £50 million (estimate given fluidity of exchange rates).

We see from the performance metrics that the team’s level of domestic dominance has increased along with their revenues and correlated with their ascension into the 2025-2026 Champions League.

The club’s operating model is a unique one and been extremely effective, blending home grown talent with selective recruitment - mostly from other Norwegian and Scandinavian leagues.

But the story has not been similar to an analytics-fueled explosion in player trading volumes, ala Tony Bloom-related clubs. It seems to be heavily impacted by an incredibly well coached and consistent game model - think Askou’s Motherwell on steroids for those unfamiliar.

But what about Kasper Hogh, specifically?

The Dane began in his home country prior to moving from Aalborg to Stabaek for €350k in 2023, then to Bodo/Glimt for €700k in 2024.

He turns 26 on December 12, 2026, so is in his prime years. We can see from this first benchmarking graphic that he earned his move to Bodo/Glimt via limited minutes at Stabaek, but was a relatively productive striker in that brief stint. He was more of a finisher than a creator - that would come later at Bodo/Glimt. Some differences in style of play and his utilization within a far less attacking side at Stabaek were evident.

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Commenting on any Celtic transfer business fills me with trepidation to be honest but one area where the club seems exposed, and therefore we can expect some activity, is the goalkeeping position.

I do not know of any youngster who is being touted to contribute to the first team, and preseason thus far has seen time divided between Viljami Sinisalo and Ross Doohan.

For all the good it may do him, Martin O’Neill has commented that he sees bolstering that position. Whether that is for a definite number one, or competition for Sinisalo is perhaps the salient question.

So, for today, I’ll try and contextualise where Sinisalo sits within recent goalkeepers and therefore attempt to assess whether he should be considered the number one or nought point five!

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As is generally the case, as we ascend the scale for cost, player qualities tend to be pretty obvious. For example, Arne Engels’ tracking data will have been easily obtainable by clubs and his running at Augsburg well known. Similarly, a winger playing in La Liga will not be lacking in clubs with volumes of data available to make an assessment.

But let’s begin this analysis a season before last, when Haissem Hassan’s Real Oviedo side earned promotion from Segunda Division up to La Liga for 2025-2026:

For this exercise, I have included Hassan’s teammate Ilyas Chaira for contextual purposes. Hassan played mostly as a wide right attacker and Chaira as his left sided counterpart.

While earning promotion, Real Oviedo did not play a style that is analogous to how Celtic have played in recent seasons. They had about 52% possession, were not particularly aggressive in their pressing, and went long/direct at about double the rate Celtic have typically. These are not negatives - just context.

We see from the first batch of metrics that Hassan was VERY direct with his passing when he did pass forward. He was also very effective when it came to creating chances for his teammates, both in volume and average quality. Chaira, in contrast, was more of a recipient of chances vs someone who created, on a relative basis.

This second section speaks directly to where Hassan stands out, which is to say he appears quite “fast twitchy” - i.e. quick, fast, and enjoys running with the ball and taking on defenders 1 vs 1 via dribbles. At the Segunda Division level within the competitive dynamics at Real Oviedo, he was a dominant force in that regard. He appears to have not done a lot of defending or effective competing in the air.

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The Pole has returned to the club after a loan spell in Germany, and had featured in both friendlies played thus far, covering for both Cameron Carter-Vickers on the right and then Auston Trusty/Liam Scales on the left.

Martin O’Neill has been reported as stating that he is currently 5^th choice behind the aforementioned plus Dane Murray - “It’s going to be hard for him to battle through from that there.” O’Neill is reported as saying in the Celtic Way.

RC Lens will be in the Champions League next season after finishing behind Paris St-Germain in Ligue Une. They are well respected for their recruitment efforts.

With Carter-Vickers yet to prove his long-term durability, with Scales the cover for Kieran Tierney at left back, and with Murray not yet proven in terms of reliability, it seems a risk to go with those four only.

I would imagine he is vying with Murray for the spot to back up Carter-Vickers, being predominantly right footed. He is 25 so likely wanting to find regular first team football. Murray is 23.

Both have accumulated just over 1000 minutes in their time at Celtic although neither have had long runs in the team. With Murray on 1093 and Nawrocki on 1079 it is at least a fair comparison, and both have logged the requisite 900 minutes. The data here represents an aggregate view across multiple seasons.

This isn’t really about Murray or Nawrocki per se, it is about how Celtic may be thinking about transfers and squad management.

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Assuming Engels eventually departs, his tenure at Celtic and seeming departure for a healthy profit introduce a number of worthwhile factors to consider.

I used Engels’ signing as a case study to explore the transfer benchmarking exercise that is ever-evolving - my conclusion at the time was not very positive. Believe I even stated on the podcast shortly afterwards that Luke McCowan out producing Engels in attacking metrics should not surprise.

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