I have been actively monitoring and chronicling the Tony Bloom-related project at Hearts since early 2025, with the first related analysis published here, that included this section referencing the competitive dynamics being different for Hearts in Scotland than what USG encountered in Belgium:

The league is relatively flat from a competitive situation, without mega clubs like Celtic. The opening up in revenue between Club Brugge and the next tier of clubs is similar to what I laid out in Serbia with Red Star/Partizan, and has become endemic within European football.

But within that next tier is a bunch of decent clubs with considerable resources, all of which pose challenges week in and week out. Away days for USG to Antwerp, Genk, Gent, Anderlecht, and Club Brugge, in total, are probably more challenging than what Hearts face at Aberdeen, Hibs, Rangers, and Celtic.

In contrast, Hearts have a relatively clear shot at Rangers, and then even possibly Celtic….only without a pesky playoff system. Rangers are a basket case and Celtic de facto run by a partriarchal major shareholder whose footballing sensibilities appear to be frozen in time from decades ago.

Hearts have a larger economic footprint and far easier pathway to securing revenues from Europe versus what USG faced, all within a league equivalent to a land of the blind where a ‘one-eyed man’ has been king for 20+ years.

Sixteen months after writing that analysis and there have been huge changes across all three of Celtic, Rangers, and Hearts.

I have been using the USG analog to try and better understand what the project at Hearts may entail, and most importantly, what that may mean from a Celtic perspective.

Usual reminder - the use of an analog is not to suggest the two things are the same, but to get our minds to frame two things to note differences as well as similarities. Describing as zebra as being like a horse is my go-to example.

With Derek McInnes leaving for Rangers, I fully expected Hearts to be more expansive with their managerial search, and the club has announced Wouter Vrancken is McInnes’ replacement generated two questions for me:

1. Who is he?

2. What might his hiring suggest about the USG analog - is it still a useful analog?

In the era of the internet and information overload, I will not be redundant in listing his CV, but highlights are his time as manager at Genk and Sint-Truiden in Belgium.

I ran him through my usual managerial performance framework:

I am not going to do a deep dive on his history here, but his Sint-Truiden team dramatically over performed their resources last season, while his Genk teams were likely a bit above that club’s relative resource position within Belgium.

Those two clubs were not ones I had included within the player trading benchmarking peer group, so added them to contextualize. As referenced when examining the Wilfried Nancy hire by Celtic, it can be difficult to decompose the impacts of recruitment quality, player talent cycles, etc. vs factors head coaches control. What we see from the graphic immediately above is that both of Vrancken’s two clubs have been doing pretty well on the player trading front.

Sint-Truiden were acquired by a Japanese company in 2017 and over the past 10-years almost caught Celtic on player trading profits, despite having a far smaller commercial footprint. Their stadium seating capacity is reported on Transfermkt as 11,337, which is about 2,000 seats smaller than Motherwell, and in between Dundee and St. Johnstone to place them within a Scottish context.

Both clubs have been far more profitable with their player trading over the past decade compared with Celtic, for example.

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Sherlock Holmes (“The Sign of Four”, by Arthur Conan Doyle)

With the speculation fuelled by Graham Spiers article today on his patreon site, I just wanted to quickly expand on what was discussed on yesterday’s Huddle Breakdown podcast.

Spiers is wondering whether Martin O’Neill will walk away from his recently agreed one year contract at Celtic due to the ongoing delay in toeing up his assistants Shaun Maloney and Mark Fotheringham.

This is noteworthy as Spiers claims to be on good terms with O’Neill. Some are interpreting this as a shot across Celtic’s bows by the frustrated Irishman.

Such are the long-held frustrations, mainly justified, by many in the support towards the performance of the board of directors, and in particular major shareholder and seeming controlling party Dermot Desmond, that any issue tends towards a polarising reaction.

Those critical of the board will seize on this as further evidence of Desmond meddling, the club nickel and diming key staff, and the ineffectiveness of executives to perform basic functions.

I wouldn’t necessarily disagree with elements of any of that but as I said on the pod, based on approximately 5% information, 15% public data and 80% following the famous Sherlock Holmes maxim quoted above, there is always nuance.

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For each match, I collect copious player event data for every Celtic player, but also a cut down version for each opponent.

From that, we can discern the most noteworthy performances against Celtic, with a thought towards future recruitment opportunities, were there anyone around to get deals over the line.

I will consider domestic and European performances separately; such is the gulf in standard between those arenas.

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As is typical, staying objective can be difficult when conducting analysis, so with the big news in Scottish football this week being between the national team at the World Cup and McInnes’ move from Hearts to Rangers, I thought it timely to lay out my analytical case, and what it may mean for Celtic.

It is the same process used whenever doing an analysis on managerial performance.

The concept is pretty simple- how has the manager’s club performed relative to the relative financial resources available?

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Despite the last league game being completed nearly a month ago, Heart of Midlothian players are still complaining about “injustice” in how the league ended.

The ingrained institutional hurt from 1986 clearly still infects the collective immune system of the club. To have a last-minute repeat some 40 years later is indeed a deep psychological blow.

However, narratives in Scotland from those disappointed by another Celtic title triumph tended towards the selective. Yes, Hearts were unfortunate not to get a penalty at Motherwell. All projected analysis ignores the possibility that the penalty might have been missed (23% of them are), or that Motherwell, with more than 30 minutes to play, may have scored further goals.

Equally, the last-minute penalty Celtic received, also at Motherwell, could also be described as fortunate given the Yorkshire Whistler felt it should not have been given. The sense of deflation at Tynecastle when the news of the late winner filtered through, and the mathematics went from “almost certain league winners” to “must get at least a draw away at Celtic” was palpable. The need to rationalise this must be overwhelming. Goaded on by a partial press, the last month or so has been an education for anyone not familiar with the cultural proclivities of the Scottish football ecosystem.

What most analysis also failed to account for in the race to “other” Celtic and sooth pain, was the cumulative impact of decisions deemed incorrect over the season. You can see an assessment of that here.

What many prominent members of Scottish society, with their newfound interest in football, and passion for Hearts, ignored was the impact of variance in general over football and this season’s title race. The (near) end of season Speedboat collection has that covered.

In addition, we have had the fifth year of a professional, Yorkshire based referee passing expert and neutral opinion over key decisions impacting Celtic and The Rangers. This Sheffield Wednesday supporting official brings insight and balance to the wonky world of Glasgow football excess. But it is not for me to praise: the proof is very much in the five years’ worth of pudding. Sincere thanks from me are, however, in order.

Hopefully he will return next season work commitments allowing, and maybe we need to include the team that seem apparently joined at the hip with The Rangers as far as predominant fan sentiment goes, in Hearts.

This is an important pillar, and is only ONE pillar, in a range of data points that can assess refereeing performances. So, here is your annual review of what happened in 2025-26.

Error Rate

Decisions are referred to the Yorkshire Whistler based on factual outcomes such as all dubious goals, red cards and penalties. Offsides are not referred given the impossibility for him to review VAR footage, unless they are noteworthy in any way, such as Celtic’s 87^th minute winner against Hearts.

Otherwise, it is what is contentious (within the framework of red cards, penalties, goals allowed or disallowed) on BBC or SPFL highlights shows. Social media also tends to raise up the debatable calls.

Here are the year-on-year trends as regards the decisions referred and the error rates.

The need for an independent review of decisions became apparent very early into the appointment of Crawford Allan as Head of Refereeing. Remember, those were in the days pre-VAR. Also, this appointment coincided with the emergence of a competitive The Rangers after the new club rose (eventually) through the senior leagues.

VAR was introduced to Scotland in October 2022, as they rushed to get it in mid-season amidst fears Scotland’s referees would be left behind when it came to UEFA and FIFA appointments. Which has happened in any case.

Error rates have fallen in line with VAR usage but crept up again this season to be 16% of all incidents referred. Remember: this is only for calls made in Celtic and The Rangers matches.

Those that decry standards are not improving under Willie Collum’s guidance have a point as, objectively, given the lack of high-level UEFA and FIFA appointments (no Scottish officials are attending the World Cup this summer), SFA referees are not well regarded at the top level.

The error rate in the Yorkshire Whistler’s first season was an incredible 32%. VAR has certainly contributed to reducing that down by half, but with dedicated VAR officials, one might expect further reductions.

Wrong Calls

Of 107 decisions across 76 matches the Yorkshire Whistler was asked to review, 17 were deemed incorrect.

Those were:

Interestingly, Hearts feature three times and benefitted from wrong calls in each case! Pure cheatin’ ah tell ye.

In total, Celtic were on the end of seven bad calls, two benefitted them and five had a negative impact.

The Rangers were on the end of seven bad calls also. Two benefitted them, one had no impact on the outcome, and four were likely negative to their chances.

Impact of Wrong Calls

Simply counting calls and whether they are deemed correct or not does not provide any insight into the potential impact of those calls. That is where the expected points estimating model comes in. Based on the time of the incident and the match score at that time, we can estimate the impact on each teams expected points from the match in terms of whether there is a positive or negative change towards the quest for three points.

There were three highly impactful wrong calls this season, according to the Yorkshire Whistler.

Youssuf Chermiti thought he’d equalised for The Rangers at home to Hearts in September, in the 67^th minute. The decision to chalk off the goal for a foul is estimated to have cost the Govan side 0.85 expected points.

In February, Mikey Moore was brought down inside the Livingston box in the last minute of a game locked at 2-2. This is estimated to have cost The Rangers 1.23 expected points.

Finally, Celtic’s penalty at Motherwell, also in added time, was similarly estimated to have benefitted them by 1.23 expected points. Remember that a penalty awarded is missed 23% of the time, which impacts the estimated expected points.

How does this impact the profile of estimated impacts over the period under review?

Under Allan, The Rangers benefitted by around 13 points over the three seasons reviewed, effectively sustaining title challenges that otherwise would have been over much earlier in the season. The smallest gap was four points in 2021-22, and so an average discrepancy of over four points per season could have been enough to swing the title.

Whilst those patterns of assistance towards one club are clear and consistent, and supported by other data such as the number of touches in the box per penalty awarded/conceded, the time and impact of each penalty, the impact of red cards, patterns have shifted since Collum was appointed.

The average discrepancy has more than halved to less than two points and are within a narrow enough band as to be considered expected levels of variance.

The question of overall refereeing quality remains a valid area of debate. The notion part-time officials can operate effectively in a sport where the players are increasingly fast and athletic is risible. Similarly, the same referees abide over time, drawn from too narrow a demographic within Scotland. Incompetent and unfit referees are promoted to full time VAR roles.

However, it appears that transparency through the SFA VAR Review Show, and the weekly publication of the Key Match Incidents (KMI) reports has had a positive impact on behaviour. Bad calls receive much more scrutiny including the on field and VAR room discussion. No referee wants to be front and centre on Willie Vision.

The standard is objectively poor – no officials at the World Cup is evidence of that – but at least they are negatively impacting all teams more or less equally.

Coming from a situation where one team benefits above all others, that IS progress. Beware those calling for an end to VAR and Collum in particular. They want to return to discretion and secrecy. The disinfectant of light benefits all teams in Scotland.

1. What positions and roles are in need of upgrades and/or depth?

2. Given the club has limited time and resources, even assuming a new improvement in talent identification and getting deals done, what should the priorities be?

The vital position of goal keeper will be interesting to monitor as the club navigates the window, and is the topic of this column’s analysis.

As usual, the goal is to try and tease out performance attribution levels which are idiosyncratic to the players considered within this exercise.

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In a World Cup likely to be hampered by extreme weather, we may well see a glut of opportunities resulting from corners and set pieces. Fast open play will be tricky to maintain in such high temperatures, and reliance on the slow, considered build up taken to set up for a set play, may well become a major route to chances.

If spending 45 seconds watching Declan Rice trudge across the field for yet another long throw or punt into the box is not your idea of entertainment, you probably have not been a fan of the English Premier League (EPL) this season. Set pieces accounted for 28% of all EPL goals, the highest ratio since 2009-10. Clubs increasingly hire not only set piece specialist coaches but even throw in coaches and we’ve had the world’s best on our pod in Thomas Gronnemark.

In particular corners are the area of focus with sophisticated blocking strategies, and an increase in crowding huge, athletic beasts on top of the goalkeepers.

Even in Scotland, headed goals has increased from 78 in 2023-34 to 102 in 2024-45 and 100 in 2025-26.

Some teams have relied on set plays more than others with challengers Heart of Midlothian and The Rangers racking up 23 set piece goals, and Dundee United scoring 42% of all goals from restart situations.

Celtic, with recent traditions of smaller, more technical players and an emphasis on ball retention and space control, have been very much an outlier in not adhering to those trends for increasing set piece focus.

Celtic are by no means the least effective in generating xG from set pieces, mainly due to the volume of attacking and time spent in the oppositions defensive third. But it isn’t a priority like it is for the teams above them in this chart.

Which is by way of introduction to a review of Celtic’s set piece performance over the season.

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The number of match days lost to injury rose 168% last season. Yet, this still wasn’t the most injury hit campaign on record. That was in 2018-19 as Brendan Rodgers’s history of stressing squads reached term three.

The departed Irishman seemed to have learned from his casino approach to player welfare upon returning to Celtic, yet this season it was almost a case of bringing out your dead as the mean streets of Scottish football, not renowned for being packed with goodfellas, took its toll.

What say the numbers?

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Alan’s article from this week.

As we ponder why, after months to plan and execute on getting the club in shape for the new season, we are faced with, instead, a strange stasis synonymous with club business since the early days of Ange Postecoglou, one wonders how Martin O’Neill would characterise it all.

It was to The Guardian on 30^th September 2003, that O’Neill is reported to have said to Kevin McCarrra “If it is the case (that stars like Henrik Larsson depart and are replaced with players on lower wages), we’ll have to get used to life in the slow lane”.

The situation the Irishman referred to was very different to that faced by Celtic today. Then, an expensively assembled squad reached a European final, but the club was losing money and growing the overdraft.

Now, money sits in the bank, the club is sustainably run yet has arguably never been as paralysed in terms of strategy, direction, vigour and energy.

Celtic have, of course, broken record after record since that time in racking up an incredible tally of domestic trophies including four trebles in a row (always worth reminding ourselves of that as no on else will). However, performance in Europe has seen a wilful disregard for the realities of the calendar, specifically qualification matches, and a failure to develop the club in line with industry best practise. Now, clubs like FK Bodø/Glimt, Club Brugge, Royale Union St Gilloise, Qarabag, Olympiacos and Atalanta regularly eclipse what was once a club solidly part of Europe’s upper middle class.

And let’s be honest about the last season, as gloriously as it ended. Celtic got away with gross mismanagement and essentially brute forced success despite that due to inherently superior resources. Performance levels were on a par with the worst of the 2020-21 COVID-19 afflicted season, the recent benchmark for “nadir”.

It feels like the club has not so much entered the slow lane but come to a standstill on the hard shoulder.

As I go through the usual end of season exercise of updating endless summary spreadsheets, what does that macro picture look like in the data?

I’m glad you asked the question despite likely not being enamoured with the answer.

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We muse often about the power of the manager and how much influence they really have. Famously, Ian Graham opined in his book “How To Win The Premier League” that it is likely surprisingly small in terms of measurable impact, and evaluating this is the “holy grail” of football analytics.

Secondly, we usually try and contextualise performance in relation to what is labelled “game state”. Simply, this is the score and time at a given match point. Teams chasing an equaliser, for example, can be expected to attack more frequently, and teams defending a lead might be expected to attack less frequently.

Running through those themes is the consideration of Martin O’Neill and his time at Celtic, and our attempts to attribute what exactly he brought to the club that can explain the gap between objectively spotty performances (high goals conceded, low xG differential) and outcomes (20 league wins in 23).

I do not want to overpromise here, and under deliver, in relation to the pursuit of Graham’s holy grail, which as everyone knows is a wooden drinking vessel buried somewhere on an Essex farm, but rather provide some nourishment for cognitive function.

In the latest pod, which I highly recommend, I presented several views that compared the team’s xG performance based on the three score-based game states – i.e. being level, being ahead and being behind. When I built those, I had some hare-brain notion of cars and accelerating and braking, basically stuff I have no clue or interest in, and ended up displaying xG per hour as some sort of proxy for F1 performance. To get back in my lane, I’ve reworked for the much safer and more familiar xG per 90 minutes. A concept we can all get behind!

I have contained this analysis to 2025-26 and league play only as one of the points of the exercise is manager impact, and having the same squad of players as the control group therefore makes sense. The trade off is some small sample sizes.

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