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I watched Arsenal for the first time this season in their Champions League second leg semi-final against Atletico Madrid. If you remove the insane physicality and speed, and the metronomic set piece performances, they remind me a lot of Celtic. A bit dour, cautious, quite slow in build-up, an awkward striker. But heh, they keep winning!

With five stuffy, unconvincing wins, filled with anxiousness and dangerous moments, are Celtic starting to resemble their Speedboat performances, finally?

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The Yorkshire Whistler, after the culmination of a tumultuous Sheffield Wednesday season, was happy with the distraction.

03/05/26 Hibernian vs Celtic

Incident 1

Referee: David Dickinson

Game Minute: 19^th

Score At Time: 0-0

Incident: McGrath challenges Johnston

Outcome: Foul to Celtic, YC to McGrath upgraded to RC by VAR

Evidence:

At 0:25

Yorkshire Whistler Verdict:

McGrath challenges Johnston

IOD: Foul to Celtic. McGrath initially cautioned but upgraded to sending off after VAR review

McGrath slides in late and clearly fouls the Celtic player.

Initially seen by the ref in real time as a reckless challenge, the replay shows that McGraths studs are high and catch the player on inside of his leg above the ankle. This is correctly identified as a tackle with excessive force/endangering player safety.

Verdict: CORRECT decision.

Expected Points Outcome: No impact

Incident 2

Referee: David Dickinson

Game Minute: 45^th

Score At Time: 0-1

Incident: Newell scores for Hibs

Outcome: Goal to Hibs

Evidence:

At 3:02

Yorkshire Whistler Verdict:

Newell scores for Hibs

IOD: Goal awarded

The ball lands to Newell in the box and he scores from a few yards. Surprised this one was allowed to stand, as the ball clearly hits his right arm and then he scores from his next touch. Whilst I agree the handball contact is accidental and natural body shape, the law 12 of the game clearly states it is a handball offence if immediately after the ball has touched their hand/arm, a goal Is scored, even if accidental.

I can understand this not being seen in real time on pitch but can’t fathom why this was not spotted by VAR.

Verdict: INCORRECT decision - goal should not have stood. Defensive free kick expected outcome.

Expected Points Outcome: Celtic -0.7 xPts

Incident 3

Referee: David Dickinson

Game Minute: 53^rd

Score At Time: 1-1

Incident: Campbell challenges Nygren in the box

Outcome: No decision

Evidence: Provided

Yorkshire Whistler Verdict:

Campbell and Nygren challenge in box

IOD: Goal kick to Hibs

Campbell attempts to shepherd the ball out for a goal kick under pressure from Nygren. Defenders are allowed to use their body to protect the ball to an extent but as soon as this blocking motion becomes a straight arm push, then a foul is committed in my opinion.

I suspect the reason the referee allowed play to continue was down to the view that blocking motion becomes a push as the Celtic player is crossing the touch line and no longer inside the field of play. I suspect the ref believes as the Celtic was unlikely to have been able to play the ball, then the overall passage of play wasn’t impacted.

However, laws of the game are clear :

“If a careless challenge is committed off the pitch (outside the field of play) while the ball is in play, the match is restarted with a direct free kick or penalty kick on the boundary line (touchline or goal line) nearest to where the offence occurred.”

For me the extension of arms meant a pushing foul had been committed and therefore a penalty was the expected outcome.

Verdict: INCORRECT decision. Penalty kick to Celtic the expected outcome.

Expected Points Outcome: Celtic -0.62 xPts

04/05/26 Heart of Midlothian vs The Rangers

Incident 1

Referee: John Beaton

Game Minute: 84^th

Score At Time: 2-1

Incident: Gassama goes down in the box

Outcome: No decision

Evidence:

At 14:20

Yorkshire Whistler Verdict:

Gassama goes down in the box

IOD: No decision

As a ball is swung into the Hearts 18 yard box, Gassama goes to ground after some lower leg contact. From the replay shown, it appears to be accidental mutual contact and it doesn’t appear that a clear foul is committed by the Hearts man.

Verdict: CORRECT decision.

Expected Points Outcome: No impact

Summary

My thanks, as always, to the Yorkshire Whistler.

Things took a slightly unpalatable turn at Easter Road. David Dickinson (“Digger” to his Ibrox pals) missed the Jamie McGrath red card challenge and only awarded a yellow. Douglas Ross was certain Daizen Maeda was offside for the first goal despite being yards behind the play.

Who would have thought having a fan of The Rangers and a Conservative & Unionist Party leader in control could cause issues in such a game? Shocked, I tell ye!

But it was the lack of support from the VAR room (Don Robertson) that has left the Yorkshire Whistler in a state where he “cannot fathom” some of those decisions. Regular readers will know the Yorkshire Whistler is very measured, professional and empathetic to the referee’s perspective.

It has been a hugely successful season for refereeing under Willie Collum in that in general we have moved from Crawford Allan’s patterns of assistance for one club, to a situation whereby all clubs seem to suffer more or less equally from the low-quality refereeing.

Here’s hoping, with the titles and European places still to be decided, we have not regressed on that front.

The Rangers have been hampered by incorrect calls to the tune of -1.73 expected points, and Celtic -1.32 xPts, a difference of 0.41 xPts.

After 35 matches, Celtic leads by four points.

That allowed overwhelming control and possession over Hibernian who were content to sit in banks of five and three across their box.

Producing high quality chances was at a premium and it took rare moments of quality to produce the two goals. Benjamin Nygren and the returning Alistair Johnston (what a difference he could make) injected pace and precision to provide Daizen Maeda the chance to finish like it’s 2022.

And Kelechi Iheanacho, who may become a cult hero, and provided the sort of calmness under pressure needed to secure a winner.

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There remains quite a bit of debate on which outcome in the Hearts v Rangers best suited Celtic’s title chances - a fertile topic for this week’s podcasts.

Here, we continue on from last week’s journey through the moments, randomness, chaos, and inches which were part of how winners and losers were determined.

This exercise is not intended to be forensic or suggest any specific team was hard done - simply to point out how much such close games can come down to fine margins.

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You will have by the end, I can almost guarantee it, as I reveal the extraordinary extent of variance impact in one of the most remarkable of recent SPFL seasons.

But before that, a gentle canter through the various variance views. Vah vah vah voom, as Catherine Deneuve no doubt once said.

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Over 100 goals and 100 assists going into what will be his 18 consecutive seasons as a first team player. Famously, he has scored in the previous 17 as well as accruing 26 winners medals, so far. Forrest’s Celtic career has impinged on three decades.

The need for experience and know-how going into what can only be a tumultuous summer transfer window, whilst maintaining the home-grown European quota, is not unwise, especially if, as likely, it is on reduced financial terms.

In short then, it is not a difficult decision to get behind, with the important caveat that he can at best be considered the fourth or fifth choice at the wing attack position.

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The Big Split commenced as Celtic faced Falkirk and The Rangers were at home to Motherwell.

The Yorkshire Whistler was ready as ever.

26/04/26 The Rangers vs Motherwell

Incident 1

Referee: Kevin Clancy

Game Minute: 18^th

Score At Time: 0-1

Incident: Gassama is challenged on the edge of the box

Outcome: Foul to Motherwell

Evidence:

Yorkshire Whistler Verdict:

Gassama goes down on the edge of the box

IOD: Foul and free kick to Rangers

As the ball is played around the edge of the Motherwell box, Gassana and a Motherwell player both look to get to the ball around the same time. It appears to me that Gassana is looking to get his body between the ball and the defender and starts to twist his body in position to do this.

However, by doing so, he actually extends his right leg into the oncoming run of the Motherwell player. In the same motion he also already begins to drop to the floor, making it appear though he has been impeded.

In real time I could see why the referee feels the contact is on Gassana and goes with an attacking free kick. However, upon watching the replay, it is my opinion that Gassana initiates the contact by extending his leg into the path of his opponent whilst moving away from the trajectory of the ball.

In my opinion no foul was committed by the Motherwell player.

Verdict: INCORRECT decision - allowing play to continue or even a defensive free kick would have been the expected outcomes.

Expected Points Outcome: No impact

Summary

My thanks, as always, to the Yorkshire Whistler.

A refreshing start to the high-pressure games as the Celtic match passed off without major incident.

Plenty of drama at Easter Road where Hibernian were the recipients of two red cards as Heart of Midlothian’s bountiful variance harvest reaped product once again. Now, Yorkshire Whistler scope remains the Glasgow teams.

The Rangers have been hampered by incorrect calls to the tune of -1.73 expected points, and Celtic -0.04 xPts.

After 34 matches, Celtic leads by one point.

Of course, as we always warn, single game data and related metrics are to be taken with a grain of salt, as there are material limits to what event data measure, and what the associated modeling can help infer.

To highlight these limits, I created four videos to review all the shots for each of Celtic and Falkirk, then Rangers and Motherwell.

For each shot, the expected goal and post-shot expected goal values are shared, with my eyeballing of where keepers’ positions are relative to modeling an optimal angular position at the time of each shot.

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The Yorkshire Whistler brings us up to date to the end of week 33 in the SPFL with the big calls and his verdicts.

This week coverage includes Celtic’s visit to Dundee and The Rangers’ trip to Falkirk.

05/04/26 Dundee vs Celtic

Incident 1

Referee: Steven McLean

Game Minute: 9^th

Score At Time: 0-0

Incident: Yang scores for Celtic

Outcome: Goal to Celtic

Evidence:

At 0:00

Yorkshire Whistler Verdict:

Yang scores for Celtic

IOD: Goal awarded

Yang reacts quickest to a parry from the Dundee keeper and prods home from close range. There is a question of a possible offside in the buildup, as initially the Celtic player looks slightly in front of his nearest marker as the cross comes in. However, the Dundee right back, almost out of shot is slightly deeper as the ball is played and is correctly adjudged to have therefore played the Celtic player onside.

Verdict: CORRECT decision.

Expected Points Outcome: No impact

Incident 2

Referee: Steven McLean

Game Minute: 57^th

Score At Time: 0-1

Incident: Ball hits Donovan in the box

Outcome: Penalty to Dundee

Evidence:

At 2:11

Yorkshire Whistler Verdict:

Ball hits Donovan in the box

IOD: Penalty to Dundee for a handball offence

As a shot is drilled at goal inside the box, at close range it hits the outstretched arm of Donovan. Whilst I do have sympathy for the Celtic player here, due to it being accidental and he had virtually no reaction time at all from when the shot is hit, his arm is quite extended outwards. The shot appears to be on target from close range and, if not for hitting Donovan’s arm, looks very likely to a goal bound effort. In this context, correct to penalise the accidental handball offence.

Verdict: CORRECT decision.

Expected Points Outcome: No impact

Incident 3

Referee: Steven McLean

Game Minute: 82^nd

Score At Time: 1-1

Incident: Iheanacho scores for Celtic

Outcome: Goal to Celtic

Evidence:

At 4:12

Yorkshire Whistler Verdict:

Iheanacho scores for Celtic

IOD: Goal awarded to Celtic

A Celtic cross is swung into the Dundee box from the left flank and there is some mutual contact between Iheanacho and his marker. The Dundee man claims he is pushed in the back, but I’m not so sure. Expected contact between the two players but not a clear push or infringement. The defender needs to show better upper body strength for me. No foul.

Verdict: CORRECT decision.

Expected Points Outcome: No impact

Incident 4

Referee: Steven McLean

Game Minute: 86^th

Score At Time: 1-2

Incident: Astley challenges Yang

Outcome: Foul to Celtic; RC to Astley

Evidence:

At 4:56

Yorkshire Whistler Verdict:

Astley challenges Yang

IOD: Foul to Celtic and red card to Astley

Yang attempts to latch onto a long through ball and plays the ball forward just before his marker, who only succeeds in pushing the Celtic man over from behind. A clear foul and the referee feel this meets the criteria for denial of an obvious goal scoring opportunity.

Dundee claim the left back was covering and so Astley wasn’t the last man but I’m not convinced. Yangs touch looked to have seen him break through centrally whereas the covering player was too wide to have got to the ball first, in my opinion.

A tight call, but one that I would support on balance.

Verdict: CORRECT decision.

Expected Points Outcome: No impact

12/04/26 Falkirk vs The Rangers

Incident 1

Referee: Don Robertson

Game Minute: 31^st

Score At Time: 2-0

Incident: Meghoma challenges Miller

Outcome: Foul to Falkirk, YC to Meghoma

Evidence:

At 0:50

Yorkshire Whistler Verdict:

Meghoma fouls Milller

IOD: Foul to Falkirk and Meghoma cautioned

Meghoma gets caught in possession and brings down the opponent that robbed him of the ball. It appears when committing this foul that the Rangers man is ‘the last man’ and so there is the consideration of whether this was a sending off offence.

To clarify being the ‘last man’ is not a sending off offence and it is actually the DOGSO (denying an obvious goal scoring opportunity) that is the punishable offence.

When considering whether a DOGSO has occurred rather than a cautionable SPA (stopping a promising attack) 4 criteria must be considered:

1. Distance to goal - How far from goal did the offence occur?

2. Direction of play - Was the attacker moving toward goal?

3. Likelihood of keeping possession - Could the attacker control the ball?

4. Location and number of defenders - Were other defenders able to recover?

So, in this situation, given the foul occurred well inside Falkirk’s own half and there was also a Rangers defender stood wider and on the half way line, this offence didn’t meet all the required criteria.

Verdict: CORRECT decision to caution for the foul.

Expected Points Outcome: No impact

Incident 2

Referee: Don Robertson

Game Minute: 70^th

Score At Time: 2-4

Incident: Tavernier challenges Lissah

Outcome: Penalty to Falkirk

Evidence:

At 3:54

Yorkshire Whistler Verdict:

Tavernier challenges Lissah in the box

IOD: Penalty to Falkirk and Tavernier cautioned

As Lissah breaks into the box, he gets goal side of Tavernier and we see the Rangers man give Lissah a little pull back, enough to impact the attacker’s momentum and a penalty is awarded.

Again, like the previous scenario, as Lissahs next touch sees him taking the ball out wide, rather than goalwards, this is correctly interpreted as a SPA rather than DOGSO and so the player is only cautioned.

Verdict: CORRECT decision.

Expected Points Outcome: No impact

Summary

My thanks, as always, to the Yorkshire Whistler.

We can only hope that the remaining five crucial rounds of matches pass off without incident in the refereeing front.

The Rangers have been hampered by incorrect calls to the tune of -1.73 expected points, and Celtic -0.04 xPts.

After 33 matches, The Rangers lead Celtic by two points.

As a final aside, this is the sort of pattern I expected to see when I started this five years ago - i.e. small margins impacting either side.

I did not expect to see the statistically significant gaps in outcome and impact we experienced under Crawford Allan’s management.

This might be why the calls in certain quarters for change are so vociferous and coordinated. Standards remain poor under Willie Collum, but at least seem to impact all teams broadly equally. It is that latter point which exercises some, rather than the overall standards, I suspect.

It has been a tumultuous season given the changes in management in Glasgow, the influence of Tony Bloom to Heart of Midlothian, and the unexpected coherence of a new style Motherwell and a newly promoted Falkirk. Hibernian have continued to be quietly effective under David Gray.

Further down the league there is intrigue in how Steven Pressley has improved Dundee, how Craig McLeish has remodelled St Mirren post Steven Robinson, and how Neil McCann is revitalising Kilmarnock with attacking football.

That leaves an under resourced Livingston cast adrift, a Dundee United side stagnating under Jim Goodwin, and the league’s “Basket Case” champions, Aberdeen.

More positive than negative indicating a league in rude health despite the coefficient evidence!

We are here to reflect (performance versus outcome) and project (what you could/should have won).

33 games in, there is plenty of data to chew.

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Having Neil Lennon’s Championship Dunfermline Athletic waiting in the final, since they’ve dispatched three SPFL Premier teams, heightens the anticipation.

And pretty much anything could happen!

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Celtic clung onto the title race with an early goal at home to a St Mirren remodelled by Craig McLeish into a ball hogging passing team.

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