The Huddle Breakdown

Delaying Anderlecht-ification

James Dailey — Thu, 24 Sep 2026 12:57:38 GMT

Since the sacking of Wilfried Nancy and Paul Tisdale on January 5, 2026, Celtic have played 25 games within the league through Sunday’s 1-0 defeat to Rangers at Celtic Park.

Over that period, Celtic have averaged 1.84 in xG for vs 0.93 against, for a non-penalty xG difference of 0.91 - i.e. within the 1.00 level Alan and often reference as when randomness gets to be materially impactful in driving results.

Over the same period, Rangers have averaged 1.80 vs 0.86 for a difference of 0.94.

Set pieces have been a material equalizer, with Celtic at 0.25 vs 0.28 compared to Rangers at 0.52 vs 0.18.

Rangers have the highest xG difference on set pieces and Celtic 7th in the league over the period.

The falloff in performance levels since Martin O’Neill returned for his 2nd interim tenure has been material. Given it included 2 transfer windows and per Transfermarkt 15 players signed either permanently or on loan, to generate underlying performance levels lower than Nancy’s tenure despite that context has been some doing.

Subscribe now

As Rhiann documented on the latest Huddle Breakdown flagship podcast, the shifts in style of play have been material vs recent seasons…and it appears to be getting worse. Through the 1st 7 league games, and despite the fixture list being relatively weak overall, xG conceded has averaged 0.97, which was almost 50% higher than the rate in the 2024-2025 season and 17% higher than last season’s rate…which was materially higher than the diabolical 2020-2021 season.

Defensive fragility has been increasingly evident, but we can now add seemingly increasing issues in attack, despite having bullied poor teams in a couple of games early this season:

Celtic 0-1 Rangers: The Worst Home Derby in a Decade (The Data Explained)

Andrew Ramsay — Thu, 24 Sep 2026 03:28:27 GMT

Celtic's 1-0 defeat to Rangers at Parkhead was, by the numbers, the worst home Old Firm performance of the Wyscout era: an xG difference of -1.91, just three shots to Rangers' 14, and a long-ball rate roughly triple Celtic's historical norm. James is joined again by Rhiann (DataBhoys) to rewatch and dissect the debacle, including the confusing team selection and shifting formations, Callum McGregor's 14 possession losses, and why "the players didn't try" is the wrong conclusion. They then zoom out to the bigger picture: the "Frankenstein" clash between Celtic's legacy possession game model and Martin O'Neill's more direct approach, season-to-date data on xG conceded, possession, build-up turnovers and clearances that suggest one of the weakest Celtic sides in recent memory, the club's lack of strategy at executive level, and what Celtic's preliminary financial results really say about the club's cash position.

Notes from Tokyo #4: Back To Black

Alan Morrison — Wed, 23 Sep 2026 21:59:54 GMT

In this piece I’ll show you what You’ll Never Walk Alone looks like when sung by the team in blue, red and white.

And we probably cannot avoid a traumatic week for Celtic on the pitch.

Celtic Are Broken | Celtic 1-3 Ferencváros & Derby Preview

Andrew Ramsay — Fri, 18 Sep 2026 20:13:16 GMT

Celtic’s 3-1 home defeat to Ferencváros capped a miserable week, and on this episode of The Huddle Breakdown Extra Time, Martin Murphy is joined by James and Heath to work out how much of it can possibly be fixed before Sunday’s Glasgow Derby. The panel goes deep into the tactical wreckage: a press with no triggers and no cohesion in the front line, a rest defence so open that every turnover turns into a jailbreak, Callum McGregor dropping into a 3-2-5 build-up that strands Bauer and Sorensen as a makeshift two, and a game model James calls “Frankenstein” — half Ange, half Rodgers, functioning as neither. There’s a look at Ross Grant’s set-piece work and Celtic’s front-post obsession, a close read of how Derek McInnes set Rangers up at Ibrox and what he might try at Parkhead, genuine praise for James Forrest’s performance, and a blunt assessment of the squad depth problem that shows up around the 70th minute. Plus: why Rangers have a Frankenstein of their own after Dan Purdy’s exit, where Celtic can actually hurt them, and what a bad result on Sunday means with Rangers two points behind and a brutal six-week run of fixtures ahead.

Sam Johnstone Benchmarking

James Dailey — Fri, 18 Sep 2026 11:39:32 GMT

Alan published his analysis using limited public data available, so please read/revisit here, as my objective is to supplement what he presented.

There has not been a lot of opportunity to benchmark keepers since I started this exercise in summer 2021, but one of the ways I found some value was looking at keepers’ max data sample analyzing the very simple metric of goals saved above average. Basically, look at the distribution of all games comparing goals conceded to the post-shot xG they have faced.

The exercise is very limited, as the post-shot xG models offered by vendors like Opta (FotMob) and Wyscout are limited. This is why I look for max sample size first, with the hope of extracting something reliable signal-wise.

Apologies for the dated/white images, but these were the early-exercise examples for Barkas, Hart, and Frazier Forster:

Derby Dancing Demanded?

James Dailey — Wed, 16 Sep 2026 16:12:29 GMT

Just how bad was it? What, if any, potentially new issues may have contributed?

Rhiann and I already began the autopsy on the flagship podcast, and we will dive deeper on Extra Time (recording Friday), but one potentially notable develop that concerns me was Camilo Duran’s performance.

Given the captain’s comments subsequent to the game, and the fact the club have tracking data that we do not to objectively measure how much players ran, I think it is reasonable to speculate the Duran was at least one of the players McGregor referenced:

Rangers were a team and we looked like a team of individuals who wanted to do our own thing, play when we got the ball and not necessarily run when we don’t have the ball, that’s the one thing you can’t do when you come here, is not run. You can’t defend with six players, it’s impossible.
We’re trying to get the message to everyone that we have to be a team and we need to find a way to do that quickly because we lost a big game to LASK and lost another one today.

Rangers 3-0 Celtic: Why Celtic's Game Model Is BROKEN | Tactical Breakdown + Ferencváros Preview

Andrew Ramsay — Wed, 16 Sep 2026 04:57:47 GMT

Celtic were humbled 3-0 by Rangers at Ibrox, and The Huddle Breakdown goes beyond the hot takes to explain why. With Alan away in Tokyo, James is joined by data analyst Rhian (RhiCam on Substack, @databhoys on X) for a tactical and data-driven breakdown of the Old Firm derby. They cover Derek McInnes' man-marking plan, James Penrice's dual role, the Hassan and goalkeeper selection calls, Celtic's disjointed press, and Callum McGregor dropping between the centre-backs. The bigger question is whether Celtic's possession game model is now outdated, since opponents like Rangers, LASK and Club Brugge have worked out how to neutralise it. They also preview Thursday's Europa League match against Ferencváros, with PPDA pressing numbers, the inverted full-backs, key players to watch and how Martin O'Neill should line up to take three points

Notes from Tokyo #3

Alan Morrison — Tue, 15 Sep 2026 05:08:08 GMT

The four or so fans of The Rangers amidst a pub full of Celtic’s own in the Footnik in Tokyo certainly enjoyed their evening.

A tense silence pervaded the room from the first whistle. Punctuated only by groans at Nick Walsh’s immature performance - surely the experienced official knew in advance the risks of a one sided audience?

However, it was as if folk expected the performance they got, if not the outcome.

We’ve got a week of Derek McInnes being hailed as a tactical genius - well done Martin!

And in the denouement, the focus on individuals and their perceived shortcomings.

When so many get so much wrong, you generally need to look up a level.

Notes from Tokyo #2: All Saints

Alan Morrison — Fri, 11 Sep 2026 23:27:45 GMT

Greetings from the land of the rising sun. Which is a right laugh given we’ve not seen a bit of it, not for a second. More rain in September than ever before ie since records began. Which in geological terms is the blink of a gnats eye.

A sturdy umbrella is a must and none of this stops the fun.

But onto Celtic.

Can Celtic's Defense Survive Ibrox? | First Derby of the Season Preview + St Johnstone Reaction

Andrew Ramsay — Fri, 11 Sep 2026 03:21:39 GMT

Martin, James, and returning guest Heath break down Celtic's 1-0 win away at St Johnstone — a game that delivered three points but raised plenty of questions, from a flat first half and an experimental 3-2-5 to Mika Bauer's match-winner and Sam Johnstone's debut in goal. James shares striking benchmarking data on Hassan, Celtic's brilliant but baffling winger — 99th percentile for dribbles and crosses, near-zero for defensive work — and asks whether the pieces up front actually fit together. Then it's the big one: a full Glasgow Derby preview ahead of the League Cup tie at Ibrox, with a data-driven look at Derek McInnes's Rangers, their shift toward direct football, Celtic's alarming open-play xG conceded, and the selection debate over Duran, Hogh, and Hassan. Plus League Cup history, lineup predictions, and a wee bit of poetry corner.

Jordan Lotomba Benchmarking

James Dailey — Wed, 09 Sep 2026 11:54:56 GMT

It appears Jordan Lotomba was signed to provide cover for both the left and right back positions. He turns 28 on September 29th and has played 19,367 minutes of senior club football according to Wyscout’s database. For comparison, Kieren Tierney is about 15 months older and has 29,093. Given the latter’s prolonged periods of missed games due to injury, Lotomba’s usage has not been heavy.

He played roughly 6.5k minutes at Young Boys in Switzerland prior to his move to Nice, where he played roughly 9.4k minutes in France. Since departing Nice for Feyenoord, he’s not played a lot, with various injury issues contributing to about 2.7k minutes in the Netherlands over the past two years.

His last two clubs played primary setups of 4-3-3/4-2-3-1 variants.

Nice were 5th during the 2023-2024 Ligue 1 season in both points and xPts per Wyscout’s model. Lotomba was not particularly attacking, with his teammate and primary left back that season shown for comparison.

Celtic & The League's Tactical Revolution | Scottish Football Has Gone BOX OFFICE

Andrew Ramsay — Tue, 08 Sep 2026 02:46:55 GMT

James is joined by special guest co-host Quinny (filling in for Alan, currently sampling sushi in Japan) to break down Celtic's 2-1 win away at St Mirren and what it tells us about this evolving Celtic side. They dig into Hassan's "gravitational pull" on the wing and whether his end product will catch up to his athleticism, Liam Scales' surprisingly dynamic left back role, and how the new-look midfield is adding verticality to Celtic's game model. Then they zoom out for a whip-around of the Scottish Premiership's tactical revolution — why half the league's managers are changing philosophy, why teams are getting punished for pressing, and why Scottish football is suddenly box office viewing — before previewing Wednesday's trip to St Johnstone. Data-driven Celtic FC analysis, every week on The Huddle Breakdown.

Notes From Tokyo #1 - St Mirren On Speed

Alan Morrison — Mon, 07 Sep 2026 01:23:06 GMT

Hello from a rain soaked Tokyo. The ol’ rain doesn’t mess about here. Eight poor souls reported killed in rain related misfortunes yesterday.

Watched the St Mirren game early this morning on Celtic TV playback. 1.7x normal speed so as not to disrupt the family sightseeing plans!

Which provides a refreshingly different perspective especially when compared to some of the chat section of the site when I perused the comments post game.

When you watch at 1.7x you suddenly have more time than you thought.

So, some off brand mainly non data driven observations.

Running vs Sprinting vs Football

James Dailey — Sun, 06 Sep 2026 16:44:23 GMT

Created this video to

explore some of the analytical issues with incorporating tracking data with player analysis using Oliver Sorensen and Gvidas Gineitis

Available for iOS and Android

Celtic's New Signings RATED: Van den Berg Hype, Johnstone Doubts & a Top of Table Clash at St Mirren

Andrew Ramsay — Fri, 04 Sep 2026 12:57:54 GMT

With Alan away in the Far East, Martin and James welcome Celtic analytics community scout Heath Timpe to break down a huge week for Celtic FC. The panel reviews the win over Aberdeen — Yang's electric man-of-the-match display, Duran's ridiculous finishing form, and why Hassan's crossing is driving everyone mad — before diving into Celtic's transfer deadline signings: PSV wonderkid Yoel Van den Berg, Feyenoord loan fullback Jordan Latombe, Sorensen, teenage Chelsea striker Mukko, and ex-England goalkeeper Sam Johnstone. Plus a data-driven look at the Europa League squad and a full tactical preview of Saturday's top-of-the-table clash away to a rebuilt St Mirren. Celtic news, transfer analysis, and Scottish Premiership stats — every week on The Huddle Breakdown.

Oliver Sorensen Benchmarking

James Dailey — Thu, 03 Sep 2026 16:45:08 GMT

We have two different seasons and competitive environments in which to try and assess Oliver Sorensen’s profile, and some familiar names are available for comparison purposes.

His final season at Midtjylland precipitated his €8.1 million sale to Parma, and followed his rise through the former’s youth setup. Midtjylland deployed him in various roles even through the 2023-2024 season, but he settled mostly in central midfield for the 2024-2025 season.

Midtjylland finished 2nd in the Danish Superliga while overperforming the xG differential and expected points (xPts). Midtjylland play a very quick and vertical style of play, and focus heavily on set pieces, including in that 2024-2025 season.

The fellow traveler in the graphic is current Rangers midfielder, Tochi Chukwuani, who played for relegation side, Lyngby, who sold him last summer to Sturm Graz for €640k prior to Rangers’ purchase for €4.6 million in January.

For additional context, Midtjylland averaged about 1.69 xG per game vs 1.03 for Lyngby, which speaks to the competitive environment the two players were competing within. We see some of the stylistic dynamics in Sorensen’s long pass per forward pass, for example. Both were very productive attacking players.

Sam Johnstone

Alan Morrison — Wed, 02 Sep 2026 11:24:21 GMT

It is a mad busy time for James, assuming some of these transfer deals actually get done today.

So as a farewell gift before I depart for my three-week holiday of a lifetime, I had a moment after checking in to put together something on Sam Johnstone, reportedly the new Celtic goalkeeper.

No doubt James will do a more thorough job in due course.

It is understood that Johnstone will join from Wolverhampton Wanderers on a season long loan deal. Indeed, Anthony Joseph confirmed it 1 minute ago!

Joel van den Berg Benchmarking

James Dailey — Tue, 01 Sep 2026 17:31:50 GMT

Given the volume of deals (hopefully!) likely to commence over the coming hours, forgive me for exercising some brevity with these analyses - less fluff and right to the point!

van den Berg played 2,213 minutes for PSV II in the Dutch second division in the 2025-2026 season, and will turn 20 in February 2027. As seems fairly common with development teams, he played across various positions but by far the most in central midfield. He is right footed but appears pretty two-footed to me, which is obviously a plus. Competitively, PSV II were mid table and like the other three development teams, field a very young team with an average age around 19. I included his teammate/midfield peer for contextual purposes.

Hassan Breaks the Chart, Celtic Break the Press | Falkirk Review, Deadline Week & Aberdeen Preview

Andrew Ramsay — Tue, 01 Sep 2026 13:41:58 GMT

Celtic's win over Falkirk produced a completely standard-looking stat pack — plus-two in xG, a +300 packing score, more than double the box possessions, six saves to one — but James and Alan argue that almost nothing about the inputs behind that familiar output was normal. This week on The Huddle Breakdown: Hassan's first proper look at Celtic Park, where his ball-carrying projected to roughly 45 pack dribbles per 90 minutes, against a 12-year record season average of 15 — and yet ended with no shots, one chance created, 14 passes given away and 0.1 expected scoring contribution. The lads dig into whether Celtic's pressing identity has quietly evaporated since Brendan Rodgers left, why the Duran–Hassan–Hu selection puzzle may never cohere, what Callum McGregor's packing numbers against Falkirk reveal about his best remaining role, and why four summer signings have realistically solved only two starting problems. Plus a deadline-week trawl through the rumour mill — Nkunku, Sorensen, Van de Berg and the goalkeeper hunt — an argument about how intra-Premier League spending has detached the top of the market and left an €8m average fee everywhere else, and a preview of Stephen Robinson's big, direct, set-piece-hungry Aberdeen arriving at Celtic Park on Wednesday.

Celtic 2, Falkirk 1 - 29th August, 2026

Alan Morrison — Mon, 31 Aug 2026 16:45:24 GMT

This article contains all the numbers from the home win against Falkirk.

Find out the detail behind Haissem Hassan’s eye catching data.

How did Liam Scales fare upon being restored ahead of Auston Trusty?

What impact did Callum Osmand make from the bench?

And how did Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain replace Callum McGregor?

If you are not a paying subscriber you can access this, and one other article, a month until November.