It is rarely straightforward these days and this was another packing and xG “defeat” but also another lesson in the perils of single game xG.

A defensive performance for the ages sealed Bhoy of the Match.

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17/10/26 Dundee vs The Rangers

Incident 1

Referee: Duncan Nicholson

Game Minute: 8^th

Score At Time: 0-0

Incident: Ball hits Astley in the box

Outcome: No decision

Evidence:

Yorkshire Whistler Verdict:

IOD: No decision

As Astley goes to block the shot, it hit his foot first before bouncing up onto his arm. As this is a deflection from his body then onto the arm, this incident is correctly identified as accidental handball and natural body shape, so no foul committed.

Verdict: CORRECT decision.

Expected Points Outcome: No impact

24/10/26 The Rangers vs St Johnstone

Incident 1

Referee: Chris Graham

Game Minute: 74^th

Score At Time: 3-0

Incident: Fotheringham challenges Raskin

Outcome: Foul to TRFC; RC to Fotheringham

Evidence:

At 4:32

Yorkshire Whistler Verdict:

IOD; Foul to Rangers and Fotheringham sent off for endangering players safety.

As Fotheringham slides in, during wet conditions, he makes contact with the ball first before his follow through sees all his studs plant onto the inside calf of Raskin.

As he is not in control of the slide and the contact is well off the ground, I can understand why VAR recommended an on-field review. In real time, this will have been easy to miss.

Verdict: CORRECT decision.

25/10/26 Hibernian vs Celtic

Incident 1

Referee: Ryan Lee

Game Minute: 44^th

Score At Time: 1-1

Incident: Duran scores for Celtic

Outcome: Goal to Celtic

Evidence:

At 2:05

Yorkshire Whistler Verdict:

IOD: Goal to Celtic

In the build up to this goal, as a Hibs player looks to win the ball, he is out under pressure for a Celtic player and ends up on the ground. Although he ends up off balance and on the floor, I cannot see clear infringement from the Celtic player here and feel the goal is right in standing.

Verdict: CORRECT decision.

Expected Points Outcome: No impact.

28/10/26 Celtic vs Dundee United

Incident 1

Referee: Steven McLean

Game Minute: 32^nd

Score At Time: 1-2

Incident: Donovan challenges Sapsford

Outcome: Foul to Dundee Utd; YC to Donovan

Evidence: Provided

Yorkshire Whistler Verdict:

IOD: Foul to Dundee Utd and Donovan cautioned

Donovan appears to catch his opponent late as he stretches to play the ball and is shown a yellow card for a reckless tackle, but the Dundee Utd players appear to be asking for a red card for a tackle with excessive force/endangering player safety.

Upon review, this has some similarities with the Fotheringham red card reviewed above. As even though Donovan appears to play the ball first, it is his follow through that catches his opponent on the back of the half.

The key difference here is that Donovan’s leg is bent as the contact is made, so the force of the challenge is less and it is not extended leg & studs that catch the player, rather a bent leg/shin that collides with the other player.

For me, this challenge just falls short of triggering an excessive force challenge and is correctly adjudged to be a caution worthy tackle only.

Verdict; CORRECT decision.

Expected Points Outcome: No impact

Summary

My thanks, as always, to the Yorkshire Whistler.

Thankfully the attention is all upon the stuttering performances of the protagonists rather than the referees for the time being.

With no new wrongly impactful decisions this time out the situation remains:

So far Celtic are estimated to have lost 1.14 points from refereeing errors and The Rangers benefitted by 0.46 points. A difference of 1.6 expected points in The Rangers favour.

After 12 matches for Celtic and 11 for The Rangers, Celtic leads The Rangers by four points.

The conditions had such a bearing on the game, with many miss controls, poor touches and stray passes. A terrible performance from latest SFA poster child Ryan Lee did not help.

Celtic have struggled on this ground in recent years and so this represents a good outcome despite the understandable poor performance.

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Another lesson in game state, but also in how to manage and not manage a game of football.

How xG can be badly used to make the wrong points, especially single game.

All this and more in the game stat pack. Incidentally, apropos of nothing in particular, each player has over 150 columns of data generated every match. Makes you think.

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Cameron Carter-Vickers, Sunday 20^th September 2026

“We sort of waste 45 minutes of football. We don’t really do things properly, shape of the team is not right.”

Callum McGregor, Wednesday 28^th October 2026

We can sit on podcasts and piss and moan, and plenty do. Even pissing and moaning politely backed up by charts and videos doesn’t cut it for many. Which is fair enough. We are just some random nerds with time on our hands to shag spreadsheets.

However, when the two most experienced leaders in the dressing room at Celtic are candid - kryptonite to most professional footballers in the media trained inanity of mainstream interaction paradigms (worst band I ever saw) - we should listen.

Celtic have only dropped points in two SPFL matches this season, and these comments follow both those matches, a 0-1 defeat at home in a Glasgow derby, and Wednesday’s 2-2 draw at home to an improving Dundee United.

However, the season has also been punctuated by heavy defeats in Europe and in a League Cup tie, against a side managed by Derek McInnes for goodness sakes.

Two hitherto model professionals, with no past record of outspokenness, or in the case of Carter-Vickers, ever saying much at all, questioning the fundamental set up of the team is, therefore, noteworthy.

What follows is not my annual McGregor progress article (TL;DR: yep, he’s a bit older and doing a bit less, but still useful).

But it does have that most rare of beasts – the killer stat. 99.99% of football stats are not the silver bullet to explain a particular point about the complex interactions that make up a game.

However, the chances of finding one are never zero.

This is not a love song.

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At the other extreme end of the spectrum, that dire week of two derby defeats, both pretty handily, sandwiched around a poor home defeat to Ferencvaros. Throw in the horror show in Austria, a weak display in Portugal, and a squeaky bum time win away to Hibs, and bipolar was the characterization that popped into my mind.

With ten games played in the league, the performance away to Hibs just took the average modestly below the 1.50 non-penalty xG difference level to which Alan and I often refer to as “Championship form.” All the metrics within this piece refer to non-penalty xG.

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I also released the variance views and will continue to do so periodically throughout the season.

It is early days of course and we have not yet passed 900 minutes.

There are a few different views of underlying performance data that have not yet been published for the new season, so below, for subscribers, is the first release.

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Sharing this as a post to try and bypass any email functionality issues.

This all started ab…

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You’ll need a full pot for this one. Slippers on, sit back, brew up!

05/09/26 The Rangers vs Motherwell

Incident 1

Referee: Duncan Nicholson

Game Minute: 29^th

Score At Time: 1-0

Incident: Gassama goes down on the box

Outcome: Penalty to TRFC

Evidence:

At 2:05

Yorkshire Whistler Verdict:

IOD: Penalty awarded to Rangers

Ball is swung into Motherwell box from right hand side. Gassama appears to be favourite to win the aerial ball, under the challenge of a Motherwell defender. The defender appears not to sense the proximity of Gassama until it is too late. Although the challenge is not a heavy one, he clearly impedes Gassama who is already in mid flight jumping for the ball and is knocked off balance. A foul is committed here.

Verdict: CORRECT decision.

Expected Points Outcome: No impact

05/09/26 St Mirren vs Celtic

Incident 1

Referee: Ryan Lee

Game Minute: 22nd

Score At Time: 0-0

Incident: Scales blocks a shot

Outcome: Penalty to St Mirren

Evidence:

At 0:00

Yorkshire Whistler Verdict:

A volley is drilled at Scales, at force and he has a small amount of time to redact as the ball comes at him. I agree that the contact on the arm is just inside the box and it does clearly strike his arm accidentally. To be considered an offence, the referee has to believe that Scales body shape was made unjustifiably larger as a consequence of this action.

On balance, I can see why the referee felt these criteria had been met, although it does seem a tad harsh on the Celtic man.

As the St Mirren player lines up the shot, Scales positions both arms behind his back, aware of the possible handball offence he is wanting to avoid. However, at the last moment he then puts his arms out wide before, realising the danger and starting to bring them back in again. This outward movement unfortunately goes against him, as the ball strikes his partially extended left arm and so the penalty is given. A subjective call, but one that I can justify why it was made.

Verdict: CORRECT decision.

Expected Points Outcome: No impact

Incident 2

Referee: Ryan Lee

Game Minute: 29^th

Score At Time: 1-0

Incident: Duran scores for Celtic

Outcome: Goal disallowed for offside

Evidence: Provided

Yorkshire Whistler Verdict:

IOD: Goal initially given, but disallowed after VAR review for offside

As the ball is squared from the left-hand side, Duran bundles the ball home from close range under pressure from a defender. VAR decides this is the narrowest of offside calls at the point of contact of the cross being made. Having watched back multiple angles of this incident, my gut feeling is that Duran was exactly level as the cross is delivered. Without the benefit of the exact footage VAR used to determine this call, I cannot say it is a clear and obvious error, but given all the evidence available to me, I feel benefit of doubt should have been applied here as it is not conclusively offside and I believe the goal should have stood.

Verdict: INCORRECT decision. Celtic goal, the expected outcome.

Expected Points Outcome: Celtic -0.6 xPts

Incident 3

Referee: Ryan Lee

Game Minute: 40^th

Score At Time: 1-0

Incident: Scales goes over in the box

Outcome: No decision

Evidence:

At 1:51

Yorkshire Whistler Verdict:

IOD: No decision

As a corner is delivered, Scales appears to be about to win a header, before he drops to ground claiming to have been fouled.

In real time, it is difficult to see why he is appealing, as he jumps, with a defender directly behind him. However, the replay does appear to show a two-handed push from the defender closest to him & believe this contact was significant enough to knock him off balance and impact his ability to win the header. I believe a foul was committed here.

Verdict: INCORRECT decision. Foul and penalty kick to Celtic the expected outcome.

Expected Points Outcome: Celtic -0.54 xPts

Incident 4

Referee: Ryan Lee

Game Minute: 90^th

Score At Time: 1-2

Incident: Mheuka scores for Celtic

Outcome: Goal awarded, VAR then cannot decide to ask referee to monitor who then disallows the goal

Evidence: Provided

Yorkshire Whistler Verdict:

IOD: Goal initially awarded, but then VAR recommends an on-field review of this incident to the referee who makes an offside call and disallows the goal.

As Mheuka latches onto a through ball and slots home, VAR recommend an on-field review, I believe due to technology issues regarding the placement of the lines to determine position at time ball is played. Clearly, there was a failing of the usual process followed here in terms of what VAR would normally do for factual black & white offside decisions.

However, that is for other people to debate, I will stick to my remit, of overseeing the final decisions made in games. Based on the video footage provided, it does appear that Mheuka was narrowly offside as the ball is played to him. Ultimately, I feel the correct decision was therefore reached.

Verdict: CORRECT decision (if not the expected process followed to arrive at this correct decision).

Expected Points Outcome: No impact

09/09/26 The Rangers vs St Mirren

Incident 1

Referee: Don Robertson

Game Minute: 16^th

Score At Time: 0-0

Incident: Kabia crosses under challenge from Fernandez

Outcome: No decision

Evidence: Provided

Yorkshire Whistler Verdict:

IOD: No decision

As Kabia crosses, there is a question of if he is fouled by Fernandez. In real time this would have been easy to miss, but it does appear that Fernandez’ left foot makes no contact on the ball and treads down on the top of Kabia’s right foot. I suspect if VAR had brought this footage to the referee’s attention, a penalty would have been awarded.

Verdict: INCORRECT decision – foul & penalty kick the expected outcome.

Expected Points Outcome: TRFC +0.46 xPts

Incident 2

Referee: Don Robertson

Game Minute: 54^th

Score At Time: 0-0

Incident: Gassama goes down in the box

Outcome: No decision

Evidence:

At 1:15

Yorkshire Whistler Verdict:

IOD: No decision

As a ball is swung into the St Mirren box, Gassama and his marker both go down. Upon watching the replay, Gassama is clearly tugged back and impeded by his marker. However, as this shirt pull happens just outside the box & isn’t deemed to be a potential red card offence, Var can’t recommend an on-field review.

Verdict: INCORRECT decision – direct free kick & yellow card for stopping a promising attack, is the expected outcome.

Expected Points Outcome: No impact

Incident 3

Referee: Don Robertson

Game Minute: 63^rd

Score At Time: 0-0

Incident: Sterling fouls Agrafiotis

Outcome: Foul to St Mirren; YC to Sterling

Evidence: Provided

Yorkshire Whistler Verdict:

IOD: Foul to St Mirren. Sterling cautioned

Agrafiotis is hauled back by Sterling, and the foul is rightly penalised and Sterling cautioned. Given how far wide Agrafiotis is when he is fouled and it looks likely his next touch is not going to be directly bearing down on goal centrally, I agree this is not the denial of an obvious goalscoring opportunity (red card) & that it is stopping a promising attack (yellow card).

Verdict: CORRECT decision.

Expected Points Outcome: No impact

20/09/26 Celtic vs The Rangers

Incident 1

Referee: John Beaton

Game Minute: 16^th

Score At Time: 0-0

Incident: Fernandez on YC challenges Nygren

Outcome: No decision

Evidence: Provided

Yorkshire Whistler Verdict:

IOD: No decision

Fernandez does appear to impede Nygren in this passage of play, but the contact is accidental and for me just a foul. I’m not convinced it meets the criteria of stopping a promising attack (and therefore a 2nd yellow card) on the basis Nygren’s touch is quite heavy and its likely the covering Rangers defender who played the ball, would still have got there first, even if Nygren isn’t impeded. I can’t say with 100% certainty who would have got there first, but there is enough doubt for me to support not showing a second yellow card for an SPA here.

Verdict: INCORRECT decision (Celtic free kick only, no yellow card, the expected outcome).

Expected Points Outcome: No impact

10/10/26 The Rangers vs Motherwell

Incident 1

Referee: Matthew McDeirmid

Game Minute: 24^th

Score At Time: 0-0

Incident: Kelsey scores for TRFC

Outcome: Goal to TRFC

Evidence: https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/live/cq98zdd3ggj8t#Line-ups

At 1:30

Yorkshire Whistler Verdict:

IOD: Goal awarded to Rangers

Kelsey sees the ball strike his body whilst he is off balance on the ground, before he picks himself and scores. Under current handball laws, the guidance is, even if it is accidental handball, If the ball touches the scorer’s hand or arm and he scores immediately afterwards, the goal is disallowed, even if the touch was a complete accident. On this basis, I do not believe the goal should have stood.

Verdict: INCORRECT decision – goal disallowed for handball, the expected outcome.

Expected Points Outcome: TRFC +0.6 xPts

11/10/26 Motherwell vs Celtic

Incident 1

Referee: Steven McLean

Game Minute: 53^rd

Score At Time: 0-1

Incident: Fadinger blocks McGregor shot

Outcome: No decision

Evidence: Provided

Yorkshire Whistler Verdict:

IOD: No decision

McGregor’s shot is blasted at the Motherwell defender, at speed & proximity. There is accidental contact on his left arm, and he swings his body around to block the shot. For me, the hand/arm is not unnaturally extended and is slightly tucked in, if anything. I feel the correct, no decision, call was made here.

Verdict: CORRECT decision.

Expected Points Outcome: No impact

Summary

My thanks, as always, to the Yorkshire Whistler.

You’ll note no Heart of Midlothian games reviewed in the last period. Sadly, bandwidth at both ends precludes extending scope.

Whilst the last weekend past off relatively issues free, there were plenty of errors over the period when I was away. Whit ye like!

The sum total is as follows:

So far Celtic are estimated to have lost 1.14 points from refereeing errors and The Rangers benefitted by 0.46 points. A difference of 1.6 expected points in The Rangers favour.

After nine matches, Celtic leads The Rangers by four points.

A veritable numbers feast.

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But here they are, anyway!

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