At the other extreme end of the spectrum, that dire week of two derby defeats, both pretty handily, sandwiched around a poor home defeat to Ferencvaros. Throw in the horror show in Austria, a weak display in Portugal, and a squeaky bum time win away to Hibs, and bipolar was the characterization that popped into my mind.

With ten games played in the league, the performance away to Hibs just took the average modestly below the 1.50 non-penalty xG difference level to which Alan and I often refer to as “Championship form.” All the metrics within this piece refer to non-penalty xG.

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Why only corners? They are by some distance the highest frequency set piece that result in shots, so sample size is less of an issue. For example, through eight league games, Celtic have exactly one shot from an indirect free kick, zero from direct, and one from a throw-in, versus 24 from corners. By comparison, Hearts have seven via indirect free kicks, two via direct, and zero from throw-ins.

Let us begin with xG for and conceded and the difference. We see the relative level deteriorated last season in attack with the level conceded also at the high end of the range from previous seasons, combined for a difference that was comparable to the 2020-2021 season. This season has slipped into a negative difference with the level of xG conceded more than triple the lowest rate conceded during the 30-game 2019-2020 season.

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There’s £66 million of cash in the bank and this trophy haul over the last 10 seasons, so how dare we peasants question the king?!

While my view has been that these objective truths have been really poor indicators to gauge Celtic’s board performance, I also fully appreciate why some/many would.

This column is intended as part analysis and part editorial.

As Gavin at Scotland’s Coefficient diligently chronicles and analyzes, the state of the club game in Scotland has been in competitive decline. The UEFA club coefficient stands at 26.25 as of this writing, placing it 19th.

Importantly, that is over 8 points behind Cyprus (34.694) in 15th, which would trigger additional access to the riches of European club competitions. At the same time, Scotland stands just ahead of Croatia (25.906), Sweden (25.75), with Azerbaijan in 25th (23.688).

Why reference 25? That has been around the floor for the coefficient when Celtic were effectively a unipolar entity in Europe post-2012 liquidation of Rangers, or even during past relatively brief periods of national decline since 1960. Importantly, the resurgence in the coefficient coincided with a Rangers surging in the Europa League, with a top 10 penetration for a brief period.

Fortunately, only Croatia has 2 teams in league stages, so hopefully Hearts and Celtic can earn enough to hold them off this season, as the next five countries have only one club remaining.

For the club coefficient to have a plausible scenario of returning to the 20 to 25 ranking area with two clubs with the financial resources of Celtic and Rangers is an indictment on how woeful the league has become. The lack of profits from player trading has also been stark - Aberdeen, Hearts, and Hibs combined for roughly £31 million over the past 10 seasons, with £11 million last season alone.

For the vast majority of the post-2012 era, Celtic SHOULD have won the league every season due to the combination of a massive resource advantage and very poorly run clubs as competitors. The relative dominance in Cup competitions was, in my analysis, largely a result of the intersection of resource advantage and the high quality coaching of control-focused game models under Brendan Rodgers and Ange Postecoglou…and some good old randomness.

Squeaking by poor Hearts teams under Craig Levein, the League Cup final in December 2019, and multiple squeaky bum wins last season under Martin O’Neill were examples of fortune shining brightly in other occasions. That’s football!

I wrote this piece about 18-months ago chronicling similar dynamics in Serbia, with Red Star now going for 10 in-a-row in the current 2026-2027 league season, and on a 6 in-a-row run in the Serbia Cup. If only they had a League Cup competition in which to prioritize playing 1st team starters to have had an unprecedented sextuple treble t-shirt to sell!

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Since the November 27, 2024 draw versus Club Brugge, I have been noting Celtic’s relative struggles when faced with opponents who man marked and let our center backs have the ball within our building out from the back and progressing the ball from the defensive third to the attacking third. McGregor’s passing profile within Celtic’s defensive half is the main focus of this analysis.

The first graphic shows simple directional tendencies for his passing. I’ve added his 6 league games under Wilfried Nancy within the graphics, with an explanation for that rationale within the analytical conclusions section below.

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Over that period, Celtic have averaged 1.84 in xG for vs 0.93 against, for a non-penalty xG difference of 0.91 - i.e. within the 1.00 level Alan and often reference as when randomness gets to be materially impactful in driving results.

Over the same period, Rangers have averaged 1.80 vs 0.86 for a difference of 0.94.

Set pieces have been a material equalizer, with Celtic at 0.25 vs 0.28 compared to Rangers at 0.52 vs 0.18.

Rangers have the highest xG difference on set pieces and Celtic 7th in the league over the period.

The falloff in performance levels since Martin O’Neill returned for his 2nd interim tenure has been material. Given it included 2 transfer windows and per Transfermarkt 15 players signed either permanently or on loan, to generate underlying performance levels lower than Nancy’s tenure despite that context has been some doing.

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As Rhiann documented on the latest Huddle Breakdown flagship podcast, the shifts in style of play have been material vs recent seasons…and it appears to be getting worse. Through the 1st 7 league games, and despite the fixture list being relatively weak overall, xG conceded has averaged 0.97, which was almost 50% higher than the rate in the 2024-2025 season and 17% higher than last season’s rate…which was materially higher than the diabolical 2020-2021 season.

Defensive fragility has been increasingly evident, but we can now add seemingly increasing issues in attack, despite having bullied poor teams in a couple of games early this season:

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Rhiann and I already began the autopsy on the flagship podcast, and we will dive deeper on Extra Time (recording Friday), but one potentially notable develop that concerns me was Camilo Duran’s performance.

Given the captain’s comments subsequent to the game, and the fact the club have tracking data that we do not to objectively measure how much players ran, I think it is reasonable to speculate the Duran was at least one of the players McGregor referenced:

Rangers were a team and we looked like a team of individuals who wanted to do our own thing, play when we got the ball and not necessarily run when we don’t have the ball, that’s the one thing you can’t do when you come here, is not run. You can’t defend with six players, it’s impossible.

We’re trying to get the message to everyone that we have to be a team and we need to find a way to do that quickly because we lost a big game to LASK and lost another one today.

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explore some of the analytical issues with incorporating tracking data with player analysis using Oliver Sorensen and Gvidas Gineitis

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Is anxiety about this tie a form of irrational PTSD from past travails?

What exactly could we all be in for as the two teams compete to gain access to Champions League riches?

There are various models to reference like ELO and similar power rankings, but as a group they generally have LASK at a higher level than either Hearts or Rangers, and around the 2nd tier of Belgian clubs like Anderlecht and Genk.

In other words, an opponent to certainly be respected, but no reason to be feared. However, a good bit above opponents to whom we have all been traumatized by in recent years, like Maribor, Malmo, and Kairat.

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As stated in June, my base case for the 2026-2027 season was that the club would invest heavily in the squad this summer, and that the performance level was likely to bounce back from a depressed 2025-2026.

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Why was I confident in there being material spending?

Because that has been Celtic’s recent history!

It is also why I have disagreed with much of the related criticisms over last season about the club being “cheap.”

The current season’s data assumes £9 million for Hassan, £6 million for Baur, and the sale of Engels for £25 million. Obviously, this is an exercise using estimates in order to try and provide context for what is unfolding.

The club tried to spend over £10 million on Kasper Dolberg last September, which would have taken the buys last season right into the range of recent context.

This first section has nothing to do with whether the players signed/sold have been wise, but rather a simple examination of ins and outs relative to fees. In a scenario where Hatate, Johnston (possibly less likely now), and Nygren exit this summer, spending of £40-£50 million on fees would be inline with recent behavior.

Broader context on the state of the squad is also vitally important, obviously.

Coming off what was an extremely chaotic season at the club, including a material amount of severe long term injuries to key players, the arrival of Hogh, Hassan, Duran, and Baur certainly feels pretty good.

But how good is the squad relative to recent history?

Summer 2018 was a sliding doors point for Celtic, in my opinion. It ended up being quite a mess that ultimately manifested in the acrimonious departure of Brendan Rodgers the following February, and took place as the analytics revolution was still relatively early.

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It was around that time, according to co-founder of Statsbomb, Ted Knutson, that Celtic were an early adopter of his company’s higher quality data. My interview with Ted last summer where he shared that history is available for subscribers here.

I stress that the first column in the graphic above is HYPOTHETICAL and done using names that were rumored at the time. I am not suggesting the likes of Castagne or McGinn were ever close to joining Celtic, but using them as part of displaying the level of quality and depth that seemed plausible.

Like last summer, the specific details of what occurred in summer 2018 is probably never to be known by the public, with different versions from the main people involved as his human nature.

A common thread across the other two squads listed is that neither manifested in relative success at the European level, for a variety of reasons, but were good enough to maintain domestic hegemony. Indeed, that issue has been persistent for nearly a quarter century, at this point.

As we stare down another Champions League playoff qualifier versus LASK, and hopefully entry into the league phase, what is the quality and depth of the current squad relative to the ones I have shown above?

What progress has been made to make the team more competitive at that level?

Have the persistent issues in midfield and in transition been addressed?

The 2019-2020 squad listed above had youth, athleticism, and high levels of technical skill in midfield, though it was materially misused, in my opinion.

While diminished from his Barcelona-legend period, Forster was still capable of winning a game(s).

Is Sinisalo as number 1 likely to win games like Forster did at times? Would a signing like Nick Pope be more like Forster vs Lazio and Schmeichel 2024-2025, or Joe Hart at Celtic?

Much may still change between now and September 4th. The exit of a manager with a long history of attempting to “blow up” the recruitment process at clubs where he’s worked suggests that a major impediment to getting deals done was excised, for a second time.

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In many ways, we may be on a Back to the Future-like journey, with Martin O’Neill as manager and getting the squad depth and quality directionally improved versus last season’s.

But is that path enough to stem the trend seemingly in place since that fateful summer of 2018 and add another chapter to the O’Neill storybook?

If only O’Neill could borrow Marty’s DeLorean and bring Henrik Larsson Back to the Future.

This week’s column is intended as a gentle reminder as to why extrapolating domestic dominance against poorly run opposition should probably not be extrapolated analytically when trying to forecast into the future.

During the first weeks of Ange Postecoglou’s tenure, for example, Celtic pummeled Dundee 6-0 on August 8th, 2021, while posting 4.51 in NPxG on 27 non-penalty shots.

A week later, Celtic would win a closer League cup game versus Hearts 3-2, but while posting 5.38 NPxG on 35 shots (all data via Wyscout).

As I have often said, nuance along historical timelines is not a normal part of our memories - we generally like to summarize periods using highlights when outcomes are positive and lowlights when the opposite.

Along the Postecoglou first-season-timeline, getting knocked out of Champions League qualifier by Midtjylland and then squeaking by AZ Alkmaar to avoid being knocked out of Europe altogether occurred during the stretch which included those hammerings. As did a loss in Ange’s first derby, and 4-3 loss away to Real Betis in what was analogous to a basketball game. Celtic remained well down the domestic table into October.

This periodic walk down memory is not to suggest the current season is a direct analog with that 2021-2022 season, but there are elements of similarity relative to major squad overhaul.

More importantly, let us not all fall into the analytical trap of drawing too many conclusions from a single game!

Even the 2020-2021 season had a different experiential timeline at this point of that season. The first league game was a 5-1 hammering of Hamilton Academical with 4.36 NPxG on 26 shots, and a 6-0 destruction of KR Reykjavik with 3.80 NPxG on 25 shots in that odd season’s first Champions League qualifier.

In fact, Celtic would not lose it’s first domestic game until the October 17th derby, with just the 1-1 draw away to Kilmarnock on August 9th the only dropped points through the first nine league games.

Apologies, but feel an obligation to contextualize why the following analysis was conducted after what was an absolute and very enjoyable destruction of Neil McCann’s Kilmarnock side.

Obviously, a 5-1 victory with over 5 in NPxG (depending on xG model) and over 30 shots was a very welcome performance and result.

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Assuming Engels eventually departs, his tenure at Celtic and seeming departure for a healthy profit introduce a number of worthwhile factors to consider.

I used Engels’ signing as a case study to explore the transfer benchmarking exercise that is ever-evolving - my conclusion at the time was not very positive. Believe I even stated on the podcast shortly afterwards that Luke McCowan out producing Engels in attacking metrics should not surprise.

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Ross joins the Premiership Champions from Heart of Midlothian, where he was a hugely important part of their coaching team last season.

When Grant was hired last summer, he conducted an interview with media and this particular section of his quoted comments were notable, IMO:

Where I’m quite fortunate is I can use the probably 20-plus years of management experience within those three members of staff that are there – the gaffer, Arch and Paul – to bounce a couple of ideas about. Take a little bit of feedback, based on what their preferences are and what their experiences are from being in professional football for that long a time as a manager. Because they’ll have specific preferences that I’ll need to try and meet and adhere to as well.

They have and should have an opinion on whether we do try something a little bit out of the box or whether we stick to a certain routine or what that structure goes from week to week, because set plays will change every week based on the structure of the opposition. One player changing in your team changes quite a lot.

They’ve been very welcoming and very understanding and given me autonomy, but to a point where I present information to them and say, how would you like to proceed with this?

The club statement linked above includes this sentence, so I wanted to have a look at what kind of impact Grant may have had at Hearts last season, and what it may suggest as to benefits Celtic may expect. I promise, this has not become the Hearts Huddle Breakdown:

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I have been actively monitoring and chronicling the Tony Bloom-related project at Hearts since early 2025, with the first related analysis published here, that included this section referencing the competitive dynamics being different for Hearts in Scotland than what USG encountered in Belgium:

The league is relatively flat from a competitive situation, without mega clubs like Celtic. The opening up in revenue between Club Brugge and the next tier of clubs is similar to what I laid out in Serbia with Red Star/Partizan, and has become endemic within European football.

But within that next tier is a bunch of decent clubs with considerable resources, all of which pose challenges week in and week out. Away days for USG to Antwerp, Genk, Gent, Anderlecht, and Club Brugge, in total, are probably more challenging than what Hearts face at Aberdeen, Hibs, Rangers, and Celtic.

In contrast, Hearts have a relatively clear shot at Rangers, and then even possibly Celtic….only without a pesky playoff system. Rangers are a basket case and Celtic de facto run by a partriarchal major shareholder whose footballing sensibilities appear to be frozen in time from decades ago.

Hearts have a larger economic footprint and far easier pathway to securing revenues from Europe versus what USG faced, all within a league equivalent to a land of the blind where a ‘one-eyed man’ has been king for 20+ years.

Sixteen months after writing that analysis and there have been huge changes across all three of Celtic, Rangers, and Hearts.

I have been using the USG analog to try and better understand what the project at Hearts may entail, and most importantly, what that may mean from a Celtic perspective.

Usual reminder - the use of an analog is not to suggest the two things are the same, but to get our minds to frame two things to note differences as well as similarities. Describing as zebra as being like a horse is my go-to example.

With Derek McInnes leaving for Rangers, I fully expected Hearts to be more expansive with their managerial search, and the club has announced Wouter Vrancken is McInnes’ replacement generated two questions for me:

1. Who is he?

2. What might his hiring suggest about the USG analog - is it still a useful analog?

In the era of the internet and information overload, I will not be redundant in listing his CV, but highlights are his time as manager at Genk and Sint-Truiden in Belgium.

I ran him through my usual managerial performance framework:

I am not going to do a deep dive on his history here, but his Sint-Truiden team dramatically over performed their resources last season, while his Genk teams were likely a bit above that club’s relative resource position within Belgium.

Those two clubs were not ones I had included within the player trading benchmarking peer group, so added them to contextualize. As referenced when examining the Wilfried Nancy hire by Celtic, it can be difficult to decompose the impacts of recruitment quality, player talent cycles, etc. vs factors head coaches control. What we see from the graphic immediately above is that both of Vrancken’s two clubs have been doing pretty well on the player trading front.

Sint-Truiden were acquired by a Japanese company in 2017 and over the past 10-years almost caught Celtic on player trading profits, despite having a far smaller commercial footprint. Their stadium seating capacity is reported on Transfermkt as 11,337, which is about 2,000 seats smaller than Motherwell, and in between Dundee and St. Johnstone to place them within a Scottish context.

Both clubs have been far more profitable with their player trading over the past decade compared with Celtic, for example.

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As is typical, staying objective can be difficult when conducting analysis, so with the big news in Scottish football this week being between the national team at the World Cup and McInnes’ move from Hearts to Rangers, I thought it timely to lay out my analytical case, and what it may mean for Celtic.

It is the same process used whenever doing an analysis on managerial performance.

The concept is pretty simple- how has the manager’s club performed relative to the relative financial resources available?

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1. What positions and roles are in need of upgrades and/or depth?

2. Given the club has limited time and resources, even assuming a new improvement in talent identification and getting deals done, what should the priorities be?

The vital position of goal keeper will be interesting to monitor as the club navigates the window, and is the topic of this column’s analysis.

As usual, the goal is to try and tease out performance attribution levels which are idiosyncratic to the players considered within this exercise.

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8 goals and an assist make him the singular person most responsible for securing a Double for the 2025-2026 season, and it is not particularly close, in my opinion.

What a way to potentially wrap up his 5th season at the club!

As far as the league season went, Maeda registered first in xG, non-penalty xG, had the highest xG per shot, 2nd most shots, 2nd most goals, 3rd most xA, 2nd most xA from open play, the most pressures (778 vs 505 by Nygren in 2nd!), regains from pressure, counterpressures, and regains from counterpressures.

Did the storybook ending to his Celtic career see him cast as a somewhat surprising hero given the nature of his goal scoring rampage?

From his tap in off a rebound as the 4th goal in the comfortable 4-0 win versus Dundee United on January 10, 2026, Maeda posted exactly 1 goal scoring contribution, an assist against Bologna on January 22, 2026, until the beginning of his outburst on April 25, 2026, against Falkirk.

In fact, I would argue that his most recent “big goal” prior to that Falkirk game was his headed goal in the 11th minute against Dundee on December 3, 2026. However, that was only a “big goal” in retrospect given it was against Dundee at home so early in the game.

His last match winning goal, obvious at the time, was his diving header to secure 3-points in the 2nd minute of extra time in the 2nd half in the 3-2 win over Motherwell on October 5, 2025, or nearly 7 months prior to the Falkirk game.

Based upon the logic I having been seeing from some regarding Alan’s KMI-related analysis on the latest Huddle Breakdown flagship episode, Celtic did not win the league without…Michel-Ange Balikwisha!

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Outside of that penalty, the non-penalty xG horse race reached the point of a relative stalemate, as was the 1-1 scoreline, after the double Hearts chance in the 86th minute - 0.82 on 11 shots for Celtic versus 1.05 on 10 shots for Hearts.

Then the title winning goal from post-split beast-mode Daizen Maeda saw Celtic rack up 1.40 xG on 2 shots, including 0.99 on Callum Osmand’s cherry on top.

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So far, events have been making my job pretty easy.

The volume of incidents to potentially cover remains large, and with the constraints of time, am limiting this column to just the Celtic game at Motherwell. Hearts scored from a bullet header from Kent, classic final third chaos leading to Devlin’s deflected goal, and a quality angled finish by Spittal.

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With referees also in the pressure cooker, I respected the consistency within the first game relative to the 2 contentious penalty-related incidents and the alleged foul on Welsh that preceded Shankland’s goal…i.e. no weak-as-piss calls. However, personally found the Shankland shove to be the least weak-as-piss of the three incidents.

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