Rangers are much more complicated with Danny Rohl’s arrival coinciding with an uptick in defensive solidity but attacking output and chance creation a persistent weakness. To put this issue into some context, Rangers xG from open play has averaged 18% less than the 2018-2019 team and down 24% from last season’s.

It has improved from what was a diabolically bad 8th-in-the-league rate under Russell Martin moved back into a distant 2nd behind Celtic during Rohl’s tenure.

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The gap in open play chance creation has been a persistent deficit for Rangers, with only the 2020-2021 team in a virtual tie. Rangers’ highest performing side in open play was the 2022-2023 team that went to the Europa League Final, but only at a rate marginally higher than this season’s depressed Celtic vintage.

Enter the January window.

While the decision making hierarchy for the window was unclear given the autumn departure of Kevin Thelwell, the arrivals of Ryan Naderi, Tochi Chukwuani, Andreas Skov Olsen, and Tuur Rommens all appear to be coherent and of good quality…unfortunately.

I had heard from a reliable source in early January that Rohl had decided the best way to get more attacking output from his squad was to migrate towards more of a Red Bull-like game model. For those who may need a refresher, it prioritizes a narrow shape and aggressive vertical passing - not necessarily direct in an aerial sense. Counterpressing and winning second balls to catch opponents in moments of transition fearture prominently.

As the window unfolded, this looked potentially evident when Olsen, Chukwuani, and Rommens were signed in close proximity, but they could have reasonably fit the prior game model. It was Naderi’s signing that set off alarm bells that the migration may actually occur, and the Scottish Cup game versus Queens Park was the first trial run.

Rohl lined up in a 4-2-2-2 with Naderi and Miovski at striker, Olsen and Antman as inverted forwards/#10, and Diomande and Chukwuani as the midfield two.

For whatever reason he reverted to a 4-3-3/4-2-3-1 in the draw away to Motherwell, then went back to the 4-2-2-2 against Hearts, with Chermeti in for Miovski, Moore for Antman, and Raskin in for Diomande.

My analysis agrees with Rohl’s assessment, if it is the case. Rangers’ squad was better aligned with the Red Bull-esque model even before the January window, and I will use Naderi to highlight why I think the January window may accelerate their improvement in attacking output if Rohl is consistent and effective in adopting it.

Naderi was signed out of the German third division, and on the eve of Celtic facing Stuttgart in the Europa League, Deniz Undav was another player plucked from that level who has gone on to be a productive player at a much higher level. I am not suggesting they are similar players - they are not. I use Undav’s last season at the same level to frame the relative dominance, or lack there of, in certain performance metrics at that level.

Naderi played mostly in a 2-striker setup during the relevant 12-month trailing period, with 4-4-2 diamond the most frequently used formation per Wyscout. His attacking output was dominant on a team that was 11th in goal scoring last season and 7th so far this season, so not a dominant side.

Importantly, his markers for decision making and for being a potential higher IQ player are excellent. His xG per shot and xA per shot assist rates were both 60%+ higher than his team’s rate. He was the opposite of a “compiler.”

Here we see some profile and stylistic differences emerge between two players, with Undav more explosive runner and likely a better technical player on the ball, overall. Naderi appears a willing and capable on-ball defender, good in the air, and with additional markers for IQ via interceptions and foul rate metrics above average.

Undav was more involved and effective in buildup and played some limited minutes as a #10 that season, where as Naderi was more of a 1 or 2 touch striker when involved in holdup/buildup. Naderi’s low short/medium passing efficiency is a red flag, especially when combined with his other passing efficiency metrics.

Red flags are useful in serving as catalysts for additional inquiry, and in Naderi’s case, technical ability is probably not a relative strength, though not a big weakness either. I think his lower efficiency rankings are more to do with his passing mix - i.e. he takes a LOT of risks, as reflected in his volume rankings for deep completions, through passes, key passes, and smart passes. Combined with his metrics in the first image above, I suspect his risk/reward profile lands favorably on the “reward” side of the ledger.

Video Review

Naderi strikes me as a crafty player but appears to lack explosiveness or game-changing pace. This is not to suggest he is unathletic, as he appears very dangerous in other ways.

For a bigger guy, he seems to have very good body control, coordination, and what I label as “good feet” in the video. He’s probably better with limited touches as his deficit in quickness is likely to see him overwhelmed with swarming defenders in Scotland, but the confluence of those factors with what appears to be good spatial awareness and decision making, as well as adding another weapon in the air for set pieces and aerial crosses, makes him pretty compelling despite the lack of quickness and speed.

Analytical Conclusions

If Rohl lines up with Naderi as the sole striker in a 4-2-3-1 and asks him to play as a false 9, then this signing could be a disaster. As we see repeatedly at Celtic, playing players in poorly profiled roles can be a big problem - see Balikwisha as a recent higher-cost example.

My grading for Rangers’ window is heavily dependent upon Rohl following through on his migration to the new game model, for which Naderi is “custom built,” IMO. It also suits Olsen, Moore, and Antman. Olsen and Moore, in particular, present upside in more freelance roles where they can move in and outside interchangeably.

They also have the profile and depth in midfield to play the deeper 2-man role, with Chukwuani well aligned with the role. His combination of size and pace, along with a reasonable, if unspectacular, proficiency on-the-ball makes him capable of covering a lot of ground and winning 2nd balls. Rommens provides a coherent attacking fullback profile to compliment the more narrow box in the forward areas.

Given Rangers’ effectiveness on attacking set pieces, adding additional weapons may further enhance their threat while also improving what has been more of a mediocre defense in that phase of play.

It is from open play where material improvement is plausible, and likely needed, if Rangers are more likely to win the title. While the overall volumes have been well below required levels, average quality has also been poor, including being 7th for xG per shot from open play during Rohl’s tenure.

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Following last week’s midweek game at Motherwell, Rangers now play one game a week for the foreseeable future, with ample time to train a new game model. My base case is that they will level-set higher from open play and possibly approach parity with Celtic, with a material advantage persisting on set pieces.

Combined with reasonable depth across all positions, they are likely to pose a persistent and robust challenge over the remainder of the campaign.

I generally try to refrain from rehashing information that is common knowledge on higher profile players, so will not get into the specifics on Oxlade-Chamberlain’s injury history. The following are the club minutes played for him within Wyscout:

2024-2025 1,093

2023-2024 1,557

2022-2023 548

2021-2022 1,638

2020-2021 356

2019-2020 2,158

2018-2019 24

2017-2018 2,662

2016-2017 2,735

2015-2016 1,635

Assuming 14 league games and the potential for 4 Cup games remaining, that would be about 1,700 available minutes assuming 95 minutes per game. How he is to be used relative to starter, super substitute, and in what role(s), along with his ability to remain fit within whatever he is given, are big uncertainties.

We can see from the first graphic that his role changed a bit in his limited minutes at Besiktas, where he moved back in the 2024-2025 season mostly as part of a double pivot versus being in a variety of more attacking roles the prior season, including at left wing and #10.

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He was then sold to Freiburg for €6 million in July 2023, where he played just 358 minutes across all competitions in the 2023-2024 season, before logging 1,656 minutes in the German Bundesliga 2024-2025 season. Adamu will turn 25 in June.

Can see from the first graphic that he has not played that many minutes so far in his career, but has generally been able to get onto a fair amount of quality chances. He has not been a creative attacking force to date.

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There are a lot of valuable lessons to be learned on Engels’ profile, tenure at Celtic, and the nature of why Forest would be interested given Sean Dyche’s style of play and their ambition to stay out of a relegation fight.

Mvuka turned 23 last November and first appeared in top flight football for Bodo/Glimt in 2022, where he played 1,285 minutes in the Norwegian Eliteserien. He followed that up with 1,027 minutes in 2023 before moving to Lorient in June 2023 for €4.5 million. He played sparingly on loan at Young Boys in the 2nd half of the 2023-2024 season, then played 1,594 minutes for Lorient in the Ligue 2 in 2024-2025. He has had just 554 minutes in 2025-2026, with Lorient having earned promotion to Ligue 1.

Unsurprisingly, Lorient were a dominant side during 2024-2025. leading Ligue 2 in both xG for and against, though not a overly ball dominant or high intensity pressing side. This is not to suggest those elements were not important or present, but I would not characterize their style of play as at standout levels.

Bodo/Glimt were more so of a ball dominant side in the 2023 Eliteserien though not the most intense with their pressing either.

As always, this is important context when considering player rankings within this exercise and how much team factors can impact them. For example, while Mvuka’s xA from Open Play ranked in the 74th percentile in 2023 at Bodo/Glimt, they were by some distance the most dominant attacking team that season. His xA per Shot Assist ranking so low at 39th percentile reflects his 0.122 average xA per Shot Assist versus a team average xG per Shot of over 0.15.

Mvuka rates as a good and active athlete who generally holds is own physically, with aerial duels one area of weakness. He was a productive ball progressor via carries during both seasons playing on dominant teams.

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As always for new readers, please see this post for a review of this benchmarking exercise.

Frosinone is currently top of the Serie B table, though per Wyscout’s xPts model they may be enjoying a major bout of positive randomness via opponents scoring just 18 goals from 33.55 xG so far this season. The prior season they finished just outside the relegation zone while badly underperforming their xG and xG conceded.

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Ghedjemis’ role in the two seasons shifted from a limited one in 2024-2025 to a vital cog in the machine so far in 2025-2026. The current iteration of Frosinone has not been very Celtic-like - average possession below 50%, not a lot of pressing, and the second lowest volume of passes played in the league, as well as the 2nd lowest passes per minute of possession.

This context is neither good nor bad, but is important to keep in mind when considering the various metrics and how they benchmark amongst his peers.

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The first series of III graphics compares Tomas Cvancara to Myron Boadu, which may illicit some “who the hell is that?” Boadu is roughly the same age and similarly had a big move after a successful spell at AZ Alkmaar, going for €17 million to Monaco in August 2021. He’s been a relative journeyman since, with multiple loan moves prior to landing at PSV this past summer. Both forwards were used relatively lightly at their respective German Bundesliga sides for the 2024-2025 season.

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So we plow on and do our best!

As usual, first some context on the two seasons in question. He played both at Hapoel Petah Tikva, with 2024-2025 in the Israeli second division, and then 2025-2026 so far in the top flight with the team earning promotion. He’s being deployed mostly as a wide attacker from the right with a lot of what appears 4-2-3-1 and close variants.

The team has been one of the more attacking sides in the respective leagues both seasons, while creating near or at the highest level of xG per shot. Not particularly aggressive in their pressing, a metric which jumps out is that the team system seems to love a throughball. More on that later.

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Please revisit the first iteration posted on Huddle Breakdown shortly after we launched this site, where I went into some detail on the process using then-new signing Arne Engels.

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The exercise continues to evolve as I test and learn, and this window I am adding some new video-related analysis to try and amplify some of the analytical conclusions drawn from the process.

I have two sets of images to share, the first showing Julian Araujo’s 2023-2024 season in La Liga playing for Las Palmas, which happened to coincide with Kieran Tierney’s loan spell at Real Sociedad. The second set compares the season at Las Palmas with his 2022 season playing for LAFC in MLS.

As is typical, there some important context relative to team and competitive factors. Las Palmas were an odd duck during that season, playing a possession-centric attacking and pressing style, but apparently doing it quite poorly with a pretty terrible season. They finished 16th but were 19th per Wyscout’s version of xPts, scoring only 33 goals despite the attacking style of play. Woof!

They were third in possession behind Barcelona and Real Madrid, and also the third highest passing rate (passes per minute of possession) behind Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid, and just ahead of Barcelona. Real Sociedad were directionally similar but more intense pressing out of possession while being less “ticky tacky” in possession. We can see these comparative elements evident within the style of play metrics, where Tierney’s passing profile is much more forward and progressive.

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Regardless of aspirations and preferences, it appears that Shin Yamada will be Kyogo Furuhashi’s and Kelechi Iheanacho will be Adam Idah’s “replacements.”

By replacement, I mean spots within the squad rather than specific talent levels or relative fit within roles within the team’s style of play.

As I wrote about in the benchmarking exercise for Shin, he is more of a penalty box poacher rather than a linear replacement for a robust talent like Kyogo.

I often refer to Adam Idah as a miscast actor in the wrong movie during his time at Celtic, so is Iheanacho going to be similar, or will he be better suited as a holdup striker?

To explore this question, I decided to go back in a time machine a bit to 2021-2022, when Iheanacho played the 2nd of consecutive season in what was probably the peak of his career so far at Leicester City. It was within the English Premier League with Brendan Rodgers as his manager.

I included two peers of interest, Odsonne Edouard and Christian Benteke, both of whom played at Crystal Palace that season. Edouard was included for the obvious relatable aspect during his first season after having left Celtic. Benteke was due to him being a different profile and a former target of Rodgers when he was at Liverpool.

There were some similarities between Iheanacho and Edouard relative to the style of play section of metrics. Iheanacho’s profile was more that of a chance creator than a striker getting on the end of chances during the season.

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The palpable anger, frustration, and disappointment over the summer 2025-2026 transfer window makes it easy to fall into a trap of losing objectivity when analyzing new signings. Good thing we have an established process and framework with which to try and remain objective…the operative word being “try!”

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With a squad bereft of orthodox wingers of a quality for which Brendan Rodgers has asked, will Sebastian Tounekti fill the bill?

Some context - he just turned 23 years old in July, and out of his nearly 6k minutes coded within Wyscout across all senior club competitions, the right (originally published in error as left) footed winger has played just over 300 minutes wide right. He had another nearly 500 minutes total across central/attacking midfield and striker combined. Perhaps he can adjust to a right sided role, but at least to date, that has not been a material part of his background.

In some respects, his profile reminds me of Nygren’s in Denmark, in that Tounekti played in a Hammerby side that was reasonably adjacent to how Celtic play. That is not inherently a good or bad factor, but it does introduce important context for analyzing his first three graphics within this benchmarking exercise.

23 is not “young” for a wing - it is around the middle of peak age. He is likely about as quick and fast as he will ever get, though he could certainly still develop a little relative to cognitive/decision making.

We see from this first section above that his non-penalty xG per 90 was right at the midpoint of this peer group, which is actually on the “low” side when considering Hammarby have the third highest xG in their league in the 2025 season. Average chance quality has not been good though, with the team 12th of 16 teams so far. Note the low xG per shot percentile for Tounekti.

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With reports that this loan deal, with no option to buy, is done, it is time to throw Marcelo Saracchi through the benchmarking exercise ringer. What kind of profile are Celtic signing?

The first detail to note is my decision to examine his 2020-2021 season at Galatasaray and 2022-2023 at Levante in the Spanish second division. Why those two seasons? Saracchi has not really played all that much first team football in his career, including within recent seasons. He had 483 minutes in 2025 at Boca Junior, 1,290 in 2024, and 1,190 in 2023.

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While he has some injury history, the one stretch of extended absence was due to a cruciate tear in 2021-2022. The rest were listed on Transfermkt as 1 to 3 weeks from soft tissue injuries.

The disparity between his two seasons within these graphics highlight the importance of team-level competitive dynamics.

Galatasaray were relatively dominant that season in Turkiye and it was obviously the “COVID season.” They barely lost out to Besiktas for the title playing a style not that similar to Celtic. Regardless, the system was successful in creating high quality chances, on average, 2nd in the league in xG per shot and xG per game.

Levante finished 3rd that season playing a style that was probably even more distant from Celtic’s, with xG per shot about 20% lower than the season at Galatasaray.

Standouts from these first two sections were the relatively average to below average for non-penalty xG per shot and xA per shot assist from open play - two metrics I look towards with regards to the intersection between athleticism and decision making.

He seemed vigilant enough physically in duels, though keep in mind that volumes for aerial duels are simply different level in Scotland. For example, he averaged about 1.8 and 1.5 those two seasons, where as Greg Taylor was involved in about 4.5 on average in league games within the SPFL.

In addition, he was an relatively “dribbly” player both seasons, both in volume and efficiency, while his speed-related metrics showed enough to carry the ball when afforded space, but likely not “fast” for his position. Upon viewing some video of him playing over the past couple of seasons, I would not characterize him as anything more than functional for speed at a European level.

On balance, his passing-related metrics suggest a reasonable level of technical proficiency, but possibly not at a standout level…i.e. not a strength nor a weakness.

Analytical Conclusions

Base case is that he may be a functional system player at Celtic domestically, but perhaps unsurprisingly a material drop off from Kieran Tierney at a European level.

He’s basically been a journeyman left back who will turn 28 this season, who played on relatively large-resourced teams within their leagues, and struggled to lock down starters’ minutes.

He does not suit the profile of “pace and power” for sure.

Not all that exciting but probably ok to do a job if it is simply to provide a rotation option to spell KT strategically. Given the rest of the squad and what appears to be the other remaining signings/targets, I do not see him as a likely positive difference makers should KT be lost to injury for any extended period(s).

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Most negative aspect is I think his signing is another symptom of a long-history of deficient talent development, identification, and squad management.

Most positive is he seems reasonably likely to be a functional contributor, even if underwhelming, which has not been the median case since the summer of 2023 transfer window.

Comparing these two players is not really a worthwhile exercise on an apples to apples basis, as Jakob Breum and Oliver Antman played distinctly different roles within the 2024-2025 Go Ahead Eagles team. While Breum has played quite a bit in wide attacking roles so far in his career, last season saw him mostly as a #10 within a base 4-2-3-1 formation, with Antman as the wide right attacker.

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While initial reports on the Breum interest and bid from Celtic suggested he was intended to be a “wing,” I suspect he is/was intended to be more like Nygren has been used to date. Here are their respective heatmaps from last season:

Breum

Antman

Now on to the benchmarking exercise:

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The new regime at Ibrox has not wasted much time in beginning the process to overhaul their squad with what they likely believe is needed to align with Russell Martin’s style of play. The first installment in this series culminated in my conclusion that both Max Aarons and Joe Rothwell were coherent signings.

To date, they have signed seven new players and finished the obligation to buy Oscar Cortes, for a total of eight player transactions for about €15 million in aggregate fees per Transfermkt.com.

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There appears to be a major rebuild at the center back position, as Emmanuel Fernandez and Nasser Djiga have already been signed, with Robyn Propper and John Souttar potentially joining Leon Balogun in departing. Additional names like Conor Coady and Xavier Mbuyamba have also been linked, so it may end up being a complete overhaul.

Before we get into the center backs, one of the risks I highlight repeatedly relative to the new regime, while nowhere near as innovative as what Bloom-owned clubs have been, is likely to operate with a coherent plan.

I think it is safe to say that with a new ownership group and complete overhaul of a football operations department, the level of transition is major.

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As the rumor hamster wheel keeps cranking, I am allocating more time to continue tracking and analyzing all of the more credible rumors, as well as the signings at Rangers and Hearts.

Flavio Nazinho is a left sided player who played the past two seasons at Cercle Brugge after coming up through Sporting’s system in Portugal. He spent the first season on loan and then was acquired for about €1 million last summer per Transfermkt.

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He will turn 22 next week and was utilized primarily as a left back and left wingback at Cercle Brugge, but also some at wide midfield.

Cercle Brugge deployed 3-4-3 and 4-2-3-1 as the two most common formations in possession during the 2024-2025 season, per Wyscout. They finished second of four teams in the relegation playoff group in the Belgian top flight’s fragmented playoff system for the 2024-2025 season.

The team was 11th in possession at 47.5%, had the lowest passes per minute of possession in the league, and were the most aggressive in challenges per minute of opposition possession. The first two were dissimilar to how Celtic play but the third at least adjacent.

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Given Brendan Rodgers’ comments after the Hayato Inamura signing and then his lining up at left back during his first appearance versus Cork City, it may be safe to assume that Inamura was not the 1st choice center half target of the manager.

Two recent rumored Celtic targets for the position certainly seem, at least at the surface, to be more classically center halves than Inamura: Etienne Youte and Justin de Haas.

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Youte will turn 24 in January and is listed in Wyscout at 196 cm tall, and just finished his 2nd consecutive season playing in Ligue 1 at Le Havre. He played mostly as the right side of a back four or middle of a back three.

Justin de Haas will turn 26 in February and is listed at 194 cm, and just completed his 2nd consecutive season playing in Primeira Liga at Famalicao. He is left footed and played mostly as the left center half in a 4-2-3-1.

I am including these two players in the same exercise as a way to try and consolidate these pieces given the volume of rumored names and signings. Please remember, the peer groups for each players are from the leagues in which they played and are NOT the same. The percentiles are meant to gauge how they performed within the specific context of their competitive environments, which were different.

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I decided to be more pro-active in analyzing the signings of Rangers and Hearts this window given the material changes in control within their football operations ahead of the upcoming season. In the recent past I have consolidated a review of Rangers’ window into a single exercise, with last summer’s here.

In that summary, I speculated a fair bit about the potential suitability of two players in particular, Cerny and Bajrami, relative to a reorientation in their style of play to better suit breaking down bunkered domestic opponents.

WRONG!!!

Thankfully, Philippe Clement was not terribly adept at navigating various squad limitations due to injuries, and ended up playing Bajrami at the #10 position within his 4-2-3-1 only about 30% of his minutes, with the vast majority of his minutes played out wide. That was the opposite of how his time in Serie A was distributed.

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This speaks to the importance of aligning player profiles, strengths vs weaknesses, team game models, and roles within all of that context - insert footballing rocket scientist Barry Ferguson playing, when he saw fit to at all, Hamza Igamane out wide as another example.

My assumption with the new Rangers regime and hiring of Russell Martin has been they would have a pretty clear alignment with recruitment and how the manager plays. This not to suggest they will necessarily be great or even good in talent acquisition, but given how Leeds have operated, this is my first chance to “test” that assumption.

It is within this context that I present the first two players to be reviewed, Max Aarons and Joe Rothwell.

Thanks to valuable constructive feedback from Alan, I have restructured how I present these graphics and broken them out into labeled groupings:

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A striker rumor! After a number of wing/number 10-related rumors, Shin Yamada offered up a new type of profile amongst the rumor mill. He just turned 25 in May, and has played material minutes across the past three J-League seasons.

Yamada played within one of the most attacking sides in the J-League over the past 12-months, which included parts of the 2024 and 2025 seasons. Kawasaki Frontale were one of the worst sides in conceding chances during the 2024 season have improved on that front materially so far in the current season. They were more possession-dominant last season, where as they have become right around 50% in 2025. 4-2-3-1 has been their most common formation in possession across both seasons, though far more prevalent in 2025, with 4-4-2 secondary within both.

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Let us start off with the obvious human failing of attempting to analyze Hayato Inamura - we are all plausibly biased by the unsuccessful signing of Yuki Kobayashi…he of a grand total of 629 minutes played at Celtic. Of course, it is not rational to allow the specifics of one signing to cloud that of another, which is partly why deploying a robust process can be helpful.

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Kobayahsi had just turned 22 years old when signed (played last season at Portimonense in Segunda Liga in Portugal) in 2022, where as Inamura just turned 23 this May. Both are left footed and have played material minutes as LCB’s for their respective clubs in Japan. Kobayashi may be a little bit taller, but the rest of the comparative information will be left to the spreadsheets!

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With credible reports that Celtic are in advanced talks to acquire Swedish forward, Benjamin Nygren, it is time to put him through the Huddle Breakdown performance benchmarking meat grinder.

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Today’s benchmarking exercise is of Ecuadorian winger, Nilson Angulo, who played 2024-2025 at Anderlecht. He only played about 1,300 minutes in the Belgium Pro League and 1,700 of first team minutes across competitions.

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Per Transfermkt, he was acquired by Anderlecht for €1.9 million from LDU Quito in the 2022-2023 season, and played mostly in the second tier with Anderlecht II prior to 2024-2025.

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