The Huddle Breakdown: Celtic by Numbers

Imagine There’s Consistency

Alan Morrison — Fri, 23 Oct 2026 06:33:32 GMT

The initial Speedboat League tables were released last week and you can catch them here.

I also released the variance views and will continue to do so periodically throughout the season.

It is early days of course and we have not yet passed 900 minutes.

There are a few different views of underlying performance data that have not yet been published for the new season, so below, for subscribers, is the first release.

A Notable Landmark

Alan Morrison — Thu, 15 Oct 2026 10:37:06 GMT

In this piece you will discover a “since records began” noteworthy achievement by a player in the most recent tie versus Motherwell, what it says about the player and the team, and, as ever, the important contexts into what we read into such numbers.

Variance Never Sleeps

Alan Morrison — Thu, 08 Oct 2026 06:21:37 GMT

We’ve covered the early season status of the reimagined league tables taking into account xG, projected forward to the final positions, and laid out the impact of finishing and keeper play variance.

Now we move to the voodoo that football do. Or something.

Here we carve out the impact of those big moments in football that leaves a coach with grey hairs. The penalties, the own goals, the red cards. The stuff that gets dumped on your team when you least expect it. And it matters, very materially so.

Let’s see how.

Hearts and The Luck of the Irish

Alan Morrison — Wed, 07 Oct 2026 06:30:36 GMT

Having established who is in prime position to win the Speedboat, and projected the final points tally, we now move onto the fun stuff.

A reminder that the Lucky Leprechaun League is the manager’s friend. They pick their goalkeepers and potential goal scorers in good faith and trust they will “do the business”.

More often than not, reality does not meet expectations, sometimes for the better, sometimes for the worst. And it doesn’t necessarily even itself out over a season.

Yep, we are in the whacky world of variance, possibly the least understood and most understated aspect of football.

And The 2026-27 Champions Will Be...........

Alan Morrison — Mon, 05 Oct 2026 06:30:44 GMT

The next view in the Speedboat series is perhaps the one you’re most waiting for.

The Banked It league takes the actual points achieved – that’s safe, no one can take those away – then projects forward based on the expected points profile estimated so far.

This is the projection into the future. Not a prediction.

Again, it is only seven games in and a penalty here or there, for example, will have had a material impact.

We’ll get to variance later, but for now, who are our ~~definite future~~ potential champions?

You Don’t Always Get What You Deserve

Alan Morrison — Sun, 04 Oct 2026 07:03:30 GMT

Herein the first Speedboat League of the season. Seven games are not ideal, probably the ol’ 900 minutes is more indicative, or even once each team has played each other once.

But life is less than perfect and there is an international week to negotiate.

So, here’s yer dinner!

A reminder: the Speedboat League table is based on the xG “scores” per team per game, and a calculation based on that which gives a probable points value per game associated with the respective xGs.

It’s what you SHOULD have won.

Notes from Tokyo #4: Back To Black

Alan Morrison — Wed, 23 Sep 2026 21:59:54 GMT

In this piece I’ll show you what You’ll Never Walk Alone looks like when sung by the team in blue, red and white.

And we probably cannot avoid a traumatic week for Celtic on the pitch.

Notes from Tokyo #3

Alan Morrison — Tue, 15 Sep 2026 05:08:08 GMT

The four or so fans of The Rangers amidst a pub full of Celtic’s own in the Footnik in Tokyo certainly enjoyed their evening.

A tense silence pervaded the room from the first whistle. Punctuated only by groans at Nick Walsh’s immature performance - surely the experienced official knew in advance the risks of a one sided audience?

However, it was as if folk expected the performance they got, if not the outcome.

We’ve got a week of Derek McInnes being hailed as a tactical genius - well done Martin!

And in the denouement, the focus on individuals and their perceived shortcomings.

When so many get so much wrong, you generally need to look up a level.

Notes from Tokyo #2: All Saints

Alan Morrison — Fri, 11 Sep 2026 23:27:45 GMT

Greetings from the land of the rising sun. Which is a right laugh given we’ve not seen a bit of it, not for a second. More rain in September than ever before ie since records began. Which in geological terms is the blink of a gnats eye.

A sturdy umbrella is a must and none of this stops the fun.

But onto Celtic.

Notes From Tokyo #1 - St Mirren On Speed

Alan Morrison — Mon, 07 Sep 2026 01:23:06 GMT

Hello from a rain soaked Tokyo. The ol’ rain doesn’t mess about here. Eight poor souls reported killed in rain related misfortunes yesterday.

Watched the St Mirren game early this morning on Celtic TV playback. 1.7x normal speed so as not to disrupt the family sightseeing plans!

Which provides a refreshingly different perspective especially when compared to some of the chat section of the site when I perused the comments post game.

When you watch at 1.7x you suddenly have more time than you thought.

So, some off brand mainly non data driven observations.

Great Expectations

Alan Morrison — Fri, 14 Aug 2026 06:30:54 GMT

On the latest Huddle Breakdown, I noted that Yang Hyun-Jun’s final third work was “horrible”. That is intemperate by the targets I usually set for myself. Binary descriptions of players, or rather anathema to them, is one of the reasons I started Celtic By Numbers in the first place.

Therefore, in the spirit of eating my own dog food, I should redeem myself with a more thoughtful piece on the hard working South Korean.

In the rest of this piece for subscribers, you will see how his 2025-26 season (47 appearances) compares with the prior two, where he was mainly used as a substitute.

Then, you will see how his performance numbers compare to other wide forwards.

Alistair Johnston. And Araujo too.

Alan Morrison — Mon, 03 Aug 2026 12:44:46 GMT

Another long, drawn-out protracted saga. This time outbound and involving full back Alistair Johnston.

This will be painful as he is one of the leadership group, to flaunt that much loved phrase, an international player with multi–World Cup experiences, and whose return at the end of last season coincided with the winning run that led to a double.

How difficult will he be to replace?

Let’s find out!

*Sigh*

Is Martin Right?

Alan Morrison — Fri, 31 Jul 2026 12:49:55 GMT

Stephen ponders whether Martin O’Neill is right to dismiss expected goals.

Last season was a turbulent one for Celtic FC and its fans. The club seemed dysfunctional at every level, and relationships were strained between the players and coaches, the board, and the fans. Performances were patchy. There was no plain sailing as the club was buffeted by storms for the duration of the campaign. Like, I am sure, most other Huddle Breakdown readers and listeners, one event shocked me to my core - Martin O’Neill said that he didn’t much care for Expected Goals!

How could The Blessed Martin dismiss the foundational metric of probability-based football analysis so casually? My soul was torn by his treacherous disdain for the Mother of All Metrics.

Aye, well maybe. Let’s take a closer look at what we get from our favourite estimate-of-likelihood.

Competition or Replacement?

Alan Morrison — Fri, 24 Jul 2026 15:30:57 GMT

As I have mentioned many times, I studiously ignore the excellent work many do on prospective or recommended signings due to the low probability of anything ever coming of it. That is not to dismiss the hours of sterling work that goes into it.

Commenting on any Celtic transfer business fills me with trepidation to be honest but one area where the club seems exposed, and therefore we can expect some activity, is the goalkeeping position.

I do not know of any youngster who is being touted to contribute to the first team, and preseason thus far has seen time divided between Viljami Sinisalo and Ross Doohan.

For all the good it may do him, Martin O’Neill has commented that he sees bolstering that position. Whether that is for a definite number one, or competition for Sinisalo is perhaps the salient question.

So, for today, I’ll try and contextualise where Sinisalo sits within recent goalkeepers and therefore attempt to assess whether he should be considered the number one or nought point five!

Why Fourth Choice Centre Back Matters

Alan Morrison — Fri, 17 Jul 2026 21:27:34 GMT

It is being reported that Racing Club Lens are interested in signing Celtic’s centre back Maik Nawrocki.

The Pole has returned to the club after a loan spell in Germany, and had featured in both friendlies played thus far, covering for both Cameron Carter-Vickers on the right and then Auston Trusty/Liam Scales on the left.

Martin O’Neill has been reported as stating that he is currently 5^th choice behind the aforementioned plus Dane Murray - “It’s going to be hard for him to battle through from that there.” O’Neill is reported as saying in the Celtic Way.

RC Lens will be in the Champions League next season after finishing behind Paris St-Germain in Ligue Une. They are well respected for their recruitment efforts.

With Carter-Vickers yet to prove his long-term durability, with Scales the cover for Kieran Tierney at left back, and with Murray not yet proven in terms of reliability, it seems a risk to go with those four only.

I would imagine he is vying with Murray for the spot to back up Carter-Vickers, being predominantly right footed. He is 25 so likely wanting to find regular first team football. Murray is 23.

Both have accumulated just over 1000 minutes in their time at Celtic although neither have had long runs in the team. With Murray on 1093 and Nawrocki on 1079 it is at least a fair comparison, and both have logged the requisite 900 minutes. The data here represents an aggregate view across multiple seasons.

This isn’t really about Murray or Nawrocki per se, it is about how Celtic may be thinking about transfers and squad management.

Stuck In The Middle With You

Alan Morrison — Mon, 06 Jul 2026 14:43:46 GMT

As Celtic continue to meander through the byways and side streets of transfer business, the only confirmed “new signing” has been the extension for a year accepted by Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain.

The Englishman, no doubt fresh from staying up until past 4am to watch his country defeat Mexico in a World Cup classic, was a fine player but it was over two World Cups ago he won the last of his 35 England caps – in 2019.

In other words, it is unlikely the 33-year-old will be the difference maker over 60 matches in Celtic’s midfield. It is six years since he was involved in 30 league matches for any club.

Yet central midfield continues to be the area of most concern given the likely departure of English Premier League target Arne Engels, and the further aging of Callum McGregor. We wait to see how Martin O’Neill’s remodelled (no sniggering at the back) side shape up in midfield, but last season saw two pivots and a number 10, Benjamin Nygren.

Concerns relate to a general lack of athleticism, creativity and goal threat from the centre.

So, today, I thought I’d lay out the recent history of midfield threes and how they have performed over some key metrics.

To keep it simple, I’m going to sum up the per 90-minute averages across all competitions for the three most prevalent midfielders in each of the following seasons:

Short-term pain, Long-term pain?

Alan Morrison — Mon, 29 Jun 2026 14:48:54 GMT

Celtic and Martin O’Neill finally agreed a one-year contract with, and this could be crucial, the option for another year. Ultimately both parties need to agree to trigger it, as O’Neill characteristically joked to The Herald.

Five managers at the current World Cup are 70 years old or more – pop quiz, can you name them without Googling? 70 may be the new 50 in terms of managerial longevity at the top level.

Remember some of the great names of British football management and their retirement ages from club football?

Jock Stein was 55, Bill Nicholson also 55, Don Revie 57, Bill Shankly 60, Matt Busby 61 and Bob Paisley 64.

None of them would be considered “old men” today.

But my concern isn’t so much O’Neill’s age, whilst it opened the door to some nostalgia, more the likely contract length and what this may mean for Celtic.

In theory any manager is one game from the sack. Or may get a better offer or upset the major shareholder so much that he leaves overnight with a flaming missive in his ear on the club’s website. Stuff happens.

So, in that sense, a club is always 24 hours away from a drama around securing a new manager and what that means to the playing style, coaching staff, and whether the current players fit in with the new manager’s plans.

But Celtic have walked into a specific situation, and the early evidence suggests they have not adjusted internal policies and practises to reflect.

No Love Without Pain

Alan Morrison — Wed, 24 Jun 2026 15:57:57 GMT

“How often have I said to you that when you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth?”

Sherlock Holmes (“The Sign of Four”, by Arthur Conan Doyle)

With the speculation fuelled by Graham Spiers article today on his patreon site, I just wanted to quickly expand on what was discussed on yesterday’s Huddle Breakdown podcast.

Spiers is wondering whether Martin O’Neill will walk away from his recently agreed one year contract at Celtic due to the ongoing delay in toeing up his assistants Shaun Maloney and Mark Fotheringham.

This is noteworthy as Spiers claims to be on good terms with O’Neill. Some are interpreting this as a shot across Celtic’s bows by the frustrated Irishman.

Such are the long-held frustrations, mainly justified, by many in the support towards the performance of the board of directors, and in particular major shareholder and seeming controlling party Dermot Desmond, that any issue tends towards a polarising reaction.

Those critical of the board will seize on this as further evidence of Desmond meddling, the club nickel and diming key staff, and the ineffectiveness of executives to perform basic functions.

I wouldn’t necessarily disagree with elements of any of that but as I said on the pod, based on approximately 5% information, 15% public data and 80% following the famous Sherlock Holmes maxim quoted above, there is always nuance.

Just A Thought

Alan Morrison — Mon, 22 Jun 2026 14:05:03 GMT

We do like to analyse the opposition as it informs our perspective about Celtic’s player and team performances.

For each match, I collect copious player event data for every Celtic player, but also a cut down version for each opponent.

From that, we can discern the most noteworthy performances against Celtic, with a thought towards future recruitment opportunities, were there anyone around to get deals over the line.

I will consider domestic and European performances separately; such is the gulf in standard between those arenas.

Setting The Play

Alan Morrison — Mon, 08 Jun 2026 12:34:52 GMT

In a World Cup likely to be hampered by extreme weather, we may well see a glut of opportunities resulting from corners and set pieces. Fast open play will be tricky to maintain in such high temperatures, and reliance on the slow, considered build up taken to set up for a set play, may well become a major route to chances.

If spending 45 seconds watching Declan Rice trudge across the field for yet another long throw or punt into the box is not your idea of entertainment, you probably have not been a fan of the English Premier League (EPL) this season. Set pieces accounted for 28% of all EPL goals, the highest ratio since 2009-10. Clubs increasingly hire not only set piece specialist coaches but even throw in coaches and we’ve had the world’s best on our pod in Thomas Gronnemark.

In particular corners are the area of focus with sophisticated blocking strategies, and an increase in crowding huge, athletic beasts on top of the goalkeepers.

Even in Scotland, headed goals has increased from 78 in 2023-34 to 102 in 2024-45 and 100 in 2025-26.

Some teams have relied on set plays more than others with challengers Heart of Midlothian and The Rangers racking up 23 set piece goals, and Dundee United scoring 42% of all goals from restart situations.

Celtic, with recent traditions of smaller, more technical players and an emphasis on ball retention and space control, have been very much an outlier in not adhering to those trends for increasing set piece focus.

Celtic are by no means the least effective in generating xG from set pieces, mainly due to the volume of attacking and time spent in the oppositions defensive third. But it isn’t a priority like it is for the teams above them in this chart.

Which is by way of introduction to a review of Celtic’s set piece performance over the season.