Celtic head to Ibrox hoping to make it 4 wins in a row under Rodgers. It is the third meeting of the season, but there are three more to fit before the seasons end. Can the numbers guide us as to how it will go?
The Glossary can be relied upon to keep the heid when tensions rise.
Current Form
There is a media driven cliché that Derby games are unpredictable and can go either way. This is simply not true and these matches more often that not follow form. Overall Celtic are 6 points ahead with a game in hand. A clear advantage. Even defeat would see Celtic likely 6 points clear once they catch up their fixtures. It is “must win” for the home side.
But what if the immediate form, since the Winter break? Since the shutdown, the respective SPFL records are:

Both sides have played Aberdeen, Heart of Midlothian and Hibernian on those league runs with The Rangers only defeat coming at home to Lennon’s team. They have won 14% more of the available points.
The Rangers are on a good run of form in the league and racking up the goals in the Scottish Cup with 13 against Fraserburgh, Ayr United and Falkirk.
Celtic have supplemented their league form with 3 Cup wins also, registering 11 goals against Brechin City, Partick Thistle and Greenock Morton. Celtic have also had the ultimately disappointing Europa League ties against Zenit St Petersburg.
Based purely on current form, the Ibrox side are looking in great shape.
Top 6 Mini-League
Ultimately it is performances against the nearest challenges that often decides the title. The top 6 has become more competitive this season following the promotion of Hibernian, and the improvements to Heart of Midlothian and Kilmarnock. Aberdeen and The Rangers are both performing similarly to last season although since Murty was named caretaker manager, their form has improved markedly.

Celtic are well ahead, 21% more effective, in matches against the other top 6 clubs. In addition, Celtic have won 2-0 at Ibrox already this season. The Light Blues held the Champions to 0-0 in the most recent meeting, at Celtic Park.
The home side need a win to have any chance of creating a title race. With a below 50% win rate in top 6 matches, the pressure will be on The Rangers to beat the form.
The Benefit of Experience
Another media cliché that probably does hold more truth is that experience of handling the big occasion is important on Derby day. Over the incarnations of the fixture, a regular “fact” brought out would be to compare the relative experience of both sides in the Derby matches. How do the expected sides stack up?

I am basing expected line ups on those chosen in the previous fixtures, not on any inside information on current injuries or tactics!
The home side will have effectively four fixture debutants (counting Alves who has previously only had 18 minutes exposure). The away side will likely have two newcomers, including Ntcham similarly on 18 minutes.
Players on debut in this fixture can shine. I had Ajer as Bhoy of the Match in the 0-0 game, whilst Dembele scored a hattrick on his bow. Bates of The Rangers showed up well on his first showing.
The total minutes experience for the projected starting line ups is:

Celtic have the clear advantage in experience comparing the possible starting XIs. They have over 12 completed matches worth of additional experience. Brown is the most seasoned with over 10 matches worth of minutes over the last 4 seasons.
But The Rangers have significantly more experience to call on from the bench. The home side subs (assuming Miller and Holt are on it) can call on 1856 minutes of exposure compared to 893 for Celtic. Bain, Hendry, Musonda, Kouassi (1 minute) and Edouard are all untested in this fixture.
If Celtic can establish a lead in the game, they may have the experience to see it out. If they must chase the game, the substitutes coming on will need to adapt quickly.
Previous Meetings

Detailed match summaries of this seasons encounters can be found in Derby Delight for Dominant Celtic and Derby Draw Frustration Not All Bad.
Celtic’s 2-0 win in September at Ibrox was noticeable for the difficulty Jack and Dorrans had screening the home sides defence. This time the new pairing of Goss and Docherty will have this task, due to injury. Do either have the defensive discipline required for the “6” role?
More positively for the Gers, Tavernier and Candais were highly effective limiting the partnership between Tierney and Sinclair. Man marking out of possession, they also managed to shift the Celtic pair back with the ball. They combined well and as the season has developed are a rich source of chances from the right.
Celtic’s success came despite Boyata and Simunovic lining up for the first time in the season together. This time Compper will probably play, although he is an experienced player.
After the 0-0 draw in December, the general view was of a “game of two halves”. Celtic certainly faded after half time but taking the match as a whole, Celtic created better chances with Expected Assists of 1.802 to 0.886. On that basis they could have expected to have won overall.
As this game was under Murty, the approach taken may have more bearing on the next instalment. The Rangers pressed high out of possession and went long and early in possession. Celtic consequently had a very poor afternoon in terms of passing accuracy. 82% pass completion is 7% down on average which is a huge drop. The two full backs were the worst culprits and with Celtic likely to go with a back three, this is an area to look out for. The Blues tracked Brown closely meaning Celtic could often not complete the crucial third pass to break midfield. Since then Brown’s role in the team has subtly changed, and it is now more often Ntcham that is first receiver from the defence. The Rangers have very limited experience of playing against him, and his range of passing may exert influence.
Since then, The Rangers recent good form has been built around a more fluid passing game. So, it will be interesting to see whether the approach mirrors the previous encounter, or their nerve is held regarding what is working recently.
The Light Blues have not scored against Celtic this season and Morelos has had one good chance in each game. As always, finishing will be key. For Celtic what is fascinating / slightly alarming, is that of the most productive attackers from the 2-0 win in September in terms of Expected Goals and Assists, none of the top 6 might start on Sunday (Griffiths, Armstrong, Roberts, Sinclair, Lustig and Rogic). The loss of creativity from Armstrong and Griffiths will be keenly felt as has been discussed elsewhere on the site.
Opposition Comparison
How do The Rangers stack up against Celtic’s opponents this season in terms of actual performance data? I compare using data from SPFL matches only.
The 359 open play passes Celtic completed in the December fixture is their 3rd lowest of the season. And the 81 incomplete open play passes, the 2nd highest. In that game Celtic completed 59 set piece passes, the highest of the season. This highlights The Rangers long ball game with lots of diagonals to the full backs resulting in lots of throw ins.
Celtic completed 418 passes in the 0-0. The Rangers join Aberdeen and Heart of Midlothian as team that have twice restricted Celtic to under 500 completed passes this season. In only 4 games this season has Celtic’s Possession Effectiveness dropped below 80% and, in this game, it was 77%.
Despite this Celtic have had over 60% possession in both fixtures.
Celtic have found The Rangers no more difficult to pass through as any other SPFL team. They average 65 forward passes per match that take out at least one opponent and achieved 65 and 59 in the two matches so far.
Despite the score lines Celtic’s xG was nearly double in the 0-0 game (1.788) compared to the 2-0 win (0.811).
The Hoops average 7 shots on target per SPFL game and have managed 9 and 6 in the two meetings so far. They manage 10 shots in the box per game and have achieved 12 and 9 in those fixtures.
Celtic managed 29 possessions inside the box at Ibrox and 28 at Celtic Park. Their season average is 26.
The Champions had 3 Big Chances in the 0-0 draw, the second most in any SPFL game.
Averaging 15 chances created per match, Celtic managed 15 and 12.
Whilst Celtic were only dispossessed 25 times at Ibrox, that rose to 33 with a more front foot pressing approach from the visitors in the return game. The Rangers aggressive intent was altogether more successful at Celtic Park as they won 20 challenges outright compared to only 11 at Ibrox.
Celtic have won the aerial battles, winning 21-13 and 24-14 in the previous encounters. With Celtic likely to go three at the back, that can be expected to continue. See my recent articles on corner (in)effectiveness, however!
Overall, Celtic have had the edge in the physical battle 41-37 and 51-45 of challenges won/lost.
Celtic’s SPFL opponents average 183 completed passes, and The Rangers managed 212 and 214 in the two matches. Their completion of 69% is average by SPFL standards.
The Rangers were far more successful playing through Celtic in losing 0-2 than in the 0-0. This reflects that they went longer and earlier at Celtic Park thus completing less forward passes (27 compared to 38 when losing 2-0).
Celtic SPFL opponents average 0.358 xG whilst The Rangers managed 0.248 and 0.587.
The Rangers managed 1 shot on target at Ibrox and 3 at Celtic Park – the average is 2.5 against the Celts.
Opponents manage 9 in box possessions against the Hoops and Sunday’s opponents managed 10 and 15 respectively.
The Rangers managed to create 6 and 8 chances against an average of 6 versus Celtic.
Whilst making 3 defensive errors at Ibrox, the Light Blues were error free in the 0-0 game.
Summary
The Rangers improved hugely under Murty in drawing 0-0 in December despite taking a more direct approach and eschewing possession as under both Warburton and Caixinha. Despite this Celtic ought to have won based on the chances created. And across a range of performance indicators, The Rangers do not stand out from the average SPFL team Celtic face.
But those are averages and the Ibrox club have undoubtedly improved. The Light Blues are now playing a more attacking ground-based game based on fast interchanges of the ball and in player positions. This approach has been successful with many players that will be new to the Derby experience.
Whilst The Rangers have the better SPFL form coming into the match, Celtic have had a rare weeks rest with returning creative talents available (Rogic and Roberts). Having more experience of the occasion should benefit the Champions but this should be the closest match of the series so far. The pressure is all on the home side as Celtic can lose and still be 6 points clear. Celtic have been more effective in the big SPFL matches this season, and this record may be the most reliable indicator.
Finally, a reminder of the most effective part of the Ibrox defence – the post markers.
