The top two sides in Scotland over the last decade clash at Celtic Park on Saturday.
Celtic’s 8th 3pm kick off of the season see’s Cup Kings St Johnstone in town.
Following gallant defeat to Galatasaray in Europe, the Saints have only got two league wins over the hapless pair of Aberdeen and Dundee.
The home hammering to Livingston (0-3) saw them score high on the “xG Unfairness” scale (1.67 – 1.22). The previous 8 matches had seen a more characteristic 6 goals conceded.
So, which St Johnstone will we get?
Attack
St Johnstone rank bottom of the SPFL in 0.67 goals per game and Celtic top with 2.33. Both are underperforming their xG with Celtic on 3.03 and the Perth side 1.01. Indeed, the sides rank 1 and 2 in SPFL xG differential to actual goals.
Saints rank 6th for shots in the box (4.56) and the same rank for total shots (11.11). Celtic top both charts.
It’s just that their shots aren’t very good. An average 0.09 xG per shot is lower only at Ross County, compared to Celtic’s 0.15. And they only force 2 saves from the opposition keeper per game compared to 4.67 by Celtic. Only Livingston force less saves.
May and Kane lead the way with 2 goals each out of a paltry 6 in the league. The lack of goals from midfield perhaps indicative of their issues. The strikers have decent xG90 of 0.34 and 0.38 respectively but no midfielder is near 0.2.
Creativity
Saints are 7th in the league for completed passes (231) but 10th for creating Big Chances (0.67). Like the majority of the league, they play a lot of long balls (75 per game) and complete about 1/3rd of them.
They are average in the SPFL for crosses attempted (21.7) and completed (5.2).
Their most creative players are centre back Kerr and striker May who both have 0.19 xA per 90m in the league. Again, this highlights the lack of flair from the midfield and wing back areas.
Defence
Saints rank 5th for xG against (1.21 per 90m) but have only conceded at a rate of 1 per game.
Where their midfield is strong is shot suppression, giving up only 9.78 per 90m against a league average of 12.4, the 4th best in the SPFL.
Consequently, the capable Clark makes 2.78 saves per 90m which places them 6th on the league.
The only give up 8.44 chances per 90m, 4th best and 0.67 Big Chances – they are behind Celtic only here.
They allow 18.2 crosses which again is the 4th lowest.
Summary
There is no doubt St Johnstone are underperforming but remain, Livingston aside, a tough defensive unit. Both Celtic and St Johnstone are due some positive variance in front of goal. Could it be a 5-goal thriller?
That would be unlikely. The Saints lack the midfield creativity and pace throughout the team. Celtic’s ongoing improvements in shape, organisation and cohesion also point to giving up fewer chances. But Celtic will have to work hard to create any chances.
I’d be surprised if there are more than a couple of goals in the game.