Are Sheets Still Clean Under the Covers?

Celtic is on track to concede 10 league goals at current rates. Do the underlying performance metrics support this? (insert furrowed brow emoji here)

On the latest Extra Time podcast, I noted that perhaps the standout fact about Celtic’s league campaign this season is the four goals conceded.

0.23 goals conceded per match is parsimonious in extremis! Celtic conceded just 18 league goals in 2001-02 (0.47 per game) and 17 in 2014-15 (0.45). They are currently on track to concede around 10 goals!

Of the four goals conceded, one was a wordly outside-the-box effort from Moussa Drammeh of Heart of Midlothian, one a penalty at Ross County, one a cruel deflection at home to Aberdeen and finally that breakaway goal by Aberdeen from Ester Sokler.

That is not a pattern of being cut open. Also, the side are devoid of set-piece jeopardy. Very off-brand. Celtic has only conceded 2.36 xG from corners and set pieces in the league and no goals.

Are Celtic just fab at the back or very fortunate?

The data used here is before capturing the Boxing Day match versus Motherwell, so covers the first 16 matches of the league campaign.

I’ve used the last four years as benchmark as Celtic has generally dominated the league in all those seasons. Also, the style of play between Ange Postecoglou and Brendan Rodgers is broadly similar.