Bumbling, Smirking, and Snarling

Where the SPFL caravan rumbles, the speedboats, leprechauns, and monsters surely follow.

Laying out the estimated impacts of chance or variance in football has become pertinent this season as it is the first time since the mid-1980s that there has been a minimum three club title race.

The idea of using data to try and describe that would not have occurred to many in 1985.

Indeed, the raw materials would likely not have been available until the 2010s, likely much later.

And, finally, with Celtic’s domestic dominance being so overwhelming since the death of Rangers in 2012, it hasn’t felt particularly necessary. Variances made little difference in processions to the title.

Having developed a framework to assess refereeing, it felt necessary then to develop a similar framework for variance (which to some extent overlaps with the refereeing analysis). Variance has and always will be a key built in feature of football. A low scoring sport, dynamic in nature, with many moving parts, and limited ability for coaches to influence the match once in progress.

I need to stress that the variances at play this season are not in any way unique or abnormal in relation to any other season.

What is interesting, is the distribution of variance relative to the title challengers.

Another dramatic week of SPFL football, with red cards and penalties again having a big influence on matches.