Can Aberdeen's Shot Conversion Rates Hold?
The Dons are scoring with 53% of shots on target whilst conceding from only 15%. Is that sustainable?
On yesterday’s Huddle Breakdown podcast, we discussed Aberdeen’s great start to the season – nine wins in a row.
I pointed out that in the league they are scoring from 53% of all shots on target, whilst only conceding from 15% of the opponent’s efforts that hit the target.
I posited this was likely unsustainable as a trend over the medium to long term.
Our host Laura Bradburn reasonably added – what does “normal” look like to place the Aberdeen numbers into context?
SPFL
I have kept a record of the SPFL Premiership since the 2018-19 season.
As a basis, I record three shot statistics:
1. Shot Accuracy – the percentage of all shots that are on target
2. On Target Conversion – the percentage of on target shots resulting in goals
3. All Shot Conversion - the percentage of all shots resulting in goals
Here are the league averages in each category back to 2018-19.
As you can see there aren’t significant variations.
The most marginal trend was the drop in shot accuracy and conversion during the COVD-19 “no fans” season where the numbers dropped from 40% to 32% for accuracy; 33% to 32% for on target conversion and 13% to 10% for all shot conversion.
They have never recovered to 2019-20 levels. Interestingly, that season was not outstanding for league scoring (albeit the number of league games was truncated). Only Odsonne Edouard broke 20 goals and a further seven were in double figures with 13 being the next highest.
Overall, the averages are 35% shot accuracy, 32% on target conversion, and 11% all shot conversion.
Based on those averages, Aberdeen’s current rates are likely unsustainable in the medium to long term.
Outliers
The best and worst in those categories over this timeframe are as follows.
· Highest accuracy for – Aberdeen 43% in 2019-20
· Highest accuracy against – Dundee 43% in 2018-19
· Lowest accuracy for – St Johnstone 27% in 2020-21 and Kilmarnock in 2022-23
· Lowest accuracy against – Dundee United 28% in 2021-22
· Highest on target conversion for – Heart of Midlothian 45% in 2019-20
· Highest on target conversion against – Aberdeen 43% in 2021-22
· Lowest on target conversion for – Aberdeen 24% in 2021-22
· Lowest on target conversion against – The Rangers 16% in 2020-21
· Highest all shot conversion for – Heart of Midlothian 18% in 2019-20
· Highest all shot conversion against – Heart of Midlothian 18% in 2019-20
· Lowest all shot conversion for – St Johnstone 7% in 2021-22
· Lowest all shot conversion against – The Rangers 5% in 2020-21
Heart of Midlothian had a remarkable campaign in 2019-20 breaking the record for best and worst all shot conversion rates whilst being relegated.
The most ouliery outlier is, however, the bold The Rangers in 2020-21. In their “greatest-ever” season (with no fans to see it) the opposition seemed to, well, stop. They only conceded from 16% of shots on target and an incredible 5% of all shots faced. The next highest is 8% which nine teams share.
Captain Tavernier was right all along!
But back to Laura’s question – no I don’t expect Aberdeen’s skill/fortune to hold.