Celtic 1, The Rangers 3 - 3rd January, 2026

Many of the risks inherent in change manifest, most prominently, system resilience.

When change is introduced, and new instructions are to be followed, uncertainty is not unexpected. Uncertainty leads to errors, and errors lead to bad outcomes. Confidence then plummets.

A manager may have a cracking plan, in theory, but the implementation of it is not just a matter of past performances in different contexts, nor the beauty of the design, it is in the very human dynamics of influencing to gain buy in, instilling belief, fostering togetherness, and convincing the group.

There is virtually no safety net at Celtic. Meaning when mistakes are made, and bad outcomes invariably follow, the level of empathy for the change process is tiny. That is a reality a good theoretical plan won’t change.

You maybe then need to review your implementation approach. Was it too much change too soon? Was the change layered in the optimal order? Who are the malcontents and how do I get them onside?

In addition to all that, and to annoy all the right people, the xG difference for Wilfried Nancy is extraordinary. In eight matches his side has scored 11 goals from 16.42 xG. They have conceded 18 from 10.71 xG. In eight matches, a negative xG variance of 12.71 or 1.59 xG per game! Remarkable.

That is not to say this is a matter of luck, although there will be elements thereof.

Continuing to pick a goalkeeper simultaneously demonstrating natural age based decline whilst clearly hampered by a wounded shoulder, is unfathomable. Asking Anthony Ralston to defend a quarter of the pitch is probably an unrealistic proposition.

Faced with player quality deficits in key areas due to injury, and knowing others have limitations, should pause one to ponder the degree and speed of change that can realistically be absorbed by this group.

Wilfully pressing ahead with change despite repeated errors MAY work out in the long term, but the short term manifestation is the conceding of horrendous goals followed by general misery. That isn’t the fault, per se, of the formation, more a natural outworking of implementing significant change.

In short: this isn’t a failure of footballing philosophy, it is a failure of change management. He keeps the players with him, or he is finished. That, for me, is the clear and present danger.

A good risk plan will understand the worst case scenario, and the costs. You then chose to accept or mitigate. That is where we are. I expect the Celtic board have accepted the current situation was a reasonably likely outcome in the circumstances. It seems recruitment plans based on delivering to Nancy’s plan are progressing. The Celtic management may well take the view that getting the change pain out the way early, however uncomfortable that may be, is the shortest path to eventual relational football nirvana.

That leaves us all with a choice as to what “support” looks like for you in this current reality.

Based on the chart at the top, I’d suggest we (and perhaps the players) are somewhere on the initial downslope, but I wouldn’t want to claim we are at the bottom.

Nice to see a new Bhoy of the Match, though.