A bold performance from Hibernian came with 10 minutes of ending Celtic’s long unbeaten domestic run. A rare pair of double goal performances from McGregor and McGinn ensured a share of the points.
Celtic’s 18th match of the season, and on the back of a Champions League success in Belgium, with injuries sustained to Brown and Armstrong, Rodgers changed team shape and personnel. It has been a feature of the season and five changes has not been unusual. Such is Celtic’s squad depth, there can be no excuses. Rather credit should go to the Edinburgh side for an adventurous plan to stop Celtic at source.
Any unfamiliar terms, visit the Glossary.
High Court Hibs
Hibernian’s plan was relatively simple in principle but difficult to implement, requiring reserves of energy and concentration to sustain.

Once the ball found Ntcham, McGeouch would latch onto him.
In the first half, Boyata (42 completed passes), Tierney (41) and Ntcham (43) dominated passing for Celtic whilst the creative talent was starved. Rogic (18) and Forrest (13) were rarely in possession whilst Hayes (24) tended to be deeper in the left-wing back position. Boyata led Celtic with 81 open play passes, 21 more than any other Celt. Boyata is Celtic’s worst passer – we know this because he has the best pass completion statistics! That might seem counter intuitive but he is told to keep it simple therefore rarely tries more than a 5-yard pass. Hence his high pass completion stats. Having Boyata dominate possession (his Usage Rate of 15% was the highest in the team) reflects Hibernians success in manipulating Celtic ball retention. Celtic’s central midfielders usually dominate the ball. There was only one orthodox central midfielder. Ntcham averages 76 completed passes per 90m, and managed 56 here.
Usually the one forward in Celtic’s normal 4-2-3-1 has relatively little possession in terms of build-up play. Griffiths averages only 13 completed passes per 90m. With both Edouard and Dembele up front, Celtic had two players playing virtually no part in the game. Both completed 8 passes in the first half. They were isolated.

This approach has been tried by both Aberdeen and The Rangers last season with some success, but has not been implemented with such consistent diligence. The front three of Hibernian had a good mix of pace (Boyle), guile (Stokes) and passing (McGeouch).
This system can be broken with good movement and accurate long passing. Throw in defensive concentration lapses and it is as strong as the weakest link. Celtic rarely threatened but nevertheless put together five high quality actions to unlock the press and take the lead on 15 minutes.
Tierney’s 50-yard pass was superbly accurate and took out 8 Hibernian outfield players;
Dembele’s inside left channel run dragged the defenders out of position;
McGregor is 30 yards away when Dembele receives the pass, but makes a determined late run;
Dembele’s hold up and patience, plus weight of pass means McGregor does not break stride; and
McGregor’s first touch and body swerve perfectly set ups the low, hard cross shot into the corner.
For Hibernian, Slivka fails to match McGregor’s run despite having a 5-yard start. This was a rare mistake from the hard-working visitors.

Stick to Task
Despite Celtic introducing the inform Sinclair for the underutilised Edouard at half time, and shifting to a 4-4-1-1, Hibernian stuck to their task.
The opening 20 minutes of the half saw Celtic dominated to an extent not seen domestically for a long time. Hibernian had 6 shots to 0 in that period. They completed 14 “pack” events to Celtic’s 8. And they equalised. McGinn firing in a left foot shot from outside the area after Hibernian had recycled the ball following a failed cross. All game they had weight of numbers in the attacking third and were therefore able to recover the ball. The defensive midfielder, Bartley, had pushed on and rolled a pass to McGinn.
Hayes, in particular, struggled with the more orthodox left back role. Three times he was caught out of position as the visitors, through Boyle and Whittaker, found attacking opportunities on that side.

With Griffiths and Roberts coming on for Dembele and Forrest, Celtic did get more into the game, but Hibernian took the lead when Celtic failed to deal with the sort of long diagonal that is a cliché in Scottish football. The secret for Hibernian was again the number of players they got in and around the Celtic danger zone.

There are five Hibernian attackers to six Celtic defenders, but no one covers Lustig having to deal with the high ball. McGregor, as with Slivka in the first half, let’s McGinn run off him, and Roberts realises too late that there is danger. The shot is near to Gordon but ferociously struck.
A Step Back
2-1 up in a match where they had mastered the home side, with 13 minutes left, Lennon blinked. His front three of McGeouch, Boyle and Stokes dropped off to half way, but that was enough for Celtic to start to play their way out of the smothering press. It was the only time in the match Hibernian took a step back, and that sight positional adjustment gave a ruthless Celtic sufficient momentum.
Roberts could now be found from the back with a short pass from the defence – that had previously been a perilous long pass. He drove at Hibernian leading to a rare corner (they had 3), and with Boyata improbably wining a back-post header, the Hibernian defenders had fallen back onto their own goal line leaving McGregor free on the penalty spot for another calm finish.

By the 85th minute, with fresh energy brought on, Hibernian were back where they started.

Hibernian saw out the game comfortably. Would they be celebrating 3 points with earlier fresh legs and without taking a small step back?
A Partial Success By Numbers
The game statistics highlight the impressive performance from the Easter Road side. All numbers are for domestic Scottish football only, not Celtic in Europe.
Although not their lowest of the season, Celtic were restricted to 475 completed passes. They average 642 in domestic football. Celtic dominated possession as they always do but Hibernians 39% is the most by any Scottish team this season. Unsurprisingly their Possession Effectiveness Index (PEI) was a season high for Celtic opponents of 69%.
And it wasn’t just about defensive shape. Hibernian completed 240 passes, the most Celtic have allowed.
Celtic had not conceded more than 1 goal in any game in Scotland. And despite scoring 2 themselves, no team has restricted Celtic to a lower Expected Goals (xG) than 0.752. Celtic average 1.85 xG.
No Scottish side has outshot Celtic this season, but Hibernian managed 53% of all shots and 55% of all shots on target. Their 6 on target is also a season high against an opponent’s average of 2.1. Celtic’s 7 shots from inside the box is a season low, whilst the 10 they allowed in the box the visitors is a season high against. Even Paris Saint-Germain only had 8.
Hibernian dominated the chances created stats. Creating 16 chances to 12, they had an Expected Assists (xA) of 1.49, against an average of 0.493 by Celtic opponents.
With so many players committed to attack, the Hibees managed 21 possessions in the box. The nearest Celtic have faced this season is 13 at Kilmarnock. Paris Saint-Germain did manage 27, by the way.
More Celtic defenders were “packed” (bypassed by a successful pass or dribble) than in any other domestic match – 17.
The away side’s successful pressing strategy is highlighted by Celtic being dispossessed a season high 32 times.
Game Changers
On 65 minutes, at 1-1, Hibernian must have though Whittaker would score when a Stokes header fell at his feet 3-yards from goal. Although Gordon was moving to try and block the original Stokes header, he miraculously got across and a hand up to block the point-blank shot. It was a remarkable save.

Finally, the eccentric (or robotic?) Willie Collum could have ruined Hibernian’s day had he penalised Ambrose for his sustained impeding of Sinclair in the 88th minute.

The notion that Sinclair “gets a shot away” and this somehow mitigates the non-decision is problematic. In short, referees should be made to learn their Expected Goal models! Sinclair’s chance is actually quite a low probability one as he is wide of the 6-yard box (just), under pressure with the goalkeeper virtually on top of him. On my xG model, it was a 0.072 chance of a goal. It was a long way from being a Big Chance. A penalty is a 0.78 chance of a goal. It’s hardly a consolation. Additionally, Collum made a big play of allowing Slivka advantage earlier, with three actions following before he brought the play back for a Hibernian free kick when the away side lost the ball. All too familiar.
Hibernian deserved at least one point, and arguably three, from one of the best domestic performances seen at Celtic Park in recent seasons.