The Celtic By Numbers Player of the Year is revealed! I have considered squad performances across Defending, Creativity and Goal Threat.
Short List
Firstly, whilst there are stellar performances across the squad, not all players have contributed equally in terms of appearances on the park. Quite simply, some have had more work to do than others.
Celtic have played 57 games (I haven’t captured the Hibernian game yet);
Only 9 players have appeared in at least 30 matches (and Rogic is one of them!);
Only 4 players have completed over 30 full 90-minute games (Gordon, Tierney, Brown, McGregor);
Only 2 players have been available over 90% of the time (McGregor, Forrest);
Only 2 players have completed over 4000 minutes (McGregor, Forrest); and
Only 5 players have completed over 3000 minutes (the two above plus Tierney, Brown and Sinclair).
That being said, I haven’t completely based it on minutes on the pitch. In reverse order, here are my top 3 performers.
3. Christie
Christie’s transformation from on loan bit part squad player to catalyst for a faster, more direct Celtic style has been the feel-good tale of the season. Looking to have one foot out the door, injuries allowed him a spell as a number 8 central midfielder. His half-time introduction in the League Cup Semi Final against Heart of Midlothian led to a comfortable win. With Christie installed in central midfield, a season-best team performance and result saw Celtic defeat RB Leipzig in the Europa League. But it was Christie’s contribution across the pitch that was revelatory. Previously seen as an attacking number 10, and used often as a striker for Celtic, he blossomed as an all action central midfield player.

The range of stats across all categories where Christie figures in the top 5 is frankly bonkers. You may think it is an exaggeration to say he transformed the team, but at the very least his presence was like a shot of adrenalin to many players who have gone to the well time and again over the last three seasons. [bctt tweet="Were it not for the fact that he has only played the equivalent of 26.67 matches, Christie would by my Player of the Year. Had he played nearer 40 matches and maintained those stats, he would have walked away with the award. " username="Alan_Morrison67"]Whether he can sustain just all action contributions across 40-50 matches is also to be proven. But, for me, the brightest spark of the season and 3rd overall in POTY rankings.
2. McGregor
McGregor had not missed a match for Celtic through injury until 24th April 2019 when he finally broke down with a calf strain. After 4 matches out he was back with 112 completed passes against Dundee and was my Bhoy of the Match in that game and the one versus St Mirren. Few, if any, players in Europe have had his work load – he has played 4586 minutes. As well as consistency there is adaptability. I have written articles about McGregor as being the water carrier and also the heir to Brown’s sitting role throne. He has posted some amazing numbers as a left back. But this season has seen less rotating around and a more settled role as a central midfielder albeit sometimes the 6 and sometimes the 8 and occasionally 10. He has played over 400 minutes more than any other player and completed nearly 200 more passes. In his 53 appearances he has completed 90 minutes 49 times. But oddly, unlike Christie, there are few statistical categories that he leads the squad, other than in all-round consistency and presence with a guarantee of a certain quality of holistic performance. His main skill set is clearly in the creative realm and his stat highlights are:

From his deeper role he leads the squad in Secondary Assists – the pass before the chance creating pass. And his overall creativity in terms of chances created is impressive given that deep role. He is adept at finding players through the opposition (Pack Passes), can dribble when required (Pack Dribbles) and his control means he can tame forward passes effectively (Pack Receives). This means overall, he is third in the squad for overall Packing and Impect. McGregor has the 3rd best Shot Accuracy in the squad at 47%. Also, his Defensive Action Success Rate (DASR%) is 48% - much less than Brown (64%) but better than nay other midfielder and forward. The point is this: McGregor is competent across the footballer skill set with excellent creative instincts. He is available game after game and performs at a consistent level. If called upon there are a variety of jobs he can perform. [bctt tweet=" Few players play with McGregors' rhythm: Scan; Set; Pass; Repeat. And usually looking forwards. " username="Alan_Morrison67"] McGregor is a joy of a footballer to manage I expect and it takes an exceptional season to better his.
POTY - Forrest
The Celtic By Numbers Player of the Year is Forrest.

Ever present coat hanger precludes traditional arms up celebration
[bctt tweet="With 17 goals and 19 assists, there are few midfielders in Europe that can better Forrest's Scoring Contribution of 36. Indeed, he is 5 ahead of Edouard who has 31 goals and assists." username="Alan_Morrison67"] Forrest has blossomed this season following on from a stellar season last. He had never scored for his country but has netted 5 over the term. Last season was the first time Forrest had achieved double figures and scored 17, a figure he looks likely to break in 2018/19. He also chalked up 11 assists last term a number he has surpassed with ease. 19 is 6 more than second placed McGregor. And so, it is really a two-year run of consistent form that brings Forrest to where he is today. Last season he played the equivalent of 45.98 full matches and has already passed 46 this. A player once reckoned to be fragile and injury prone is now one of the few not to succumb to lameness this season. At 27 and entering his peak Forrest has found the fitness and therefore the form of his career. What has changed? I mention often that you do not see massive movements in the data and that marginal gains/decreases indicate improvement/decline. Counter-intuitively, sometimes a reduction or being “worse” at something is as good at explaining progress than values going up. Let me illustrate:

Forrest has completed less dribbles / “take ons”, in fact failure rate is 30% up. He is connecting with 69% less crosses. And defensively, he is winning less challenges and his overall DASR% (aggregate of defensive actions) is down by 10%. Possession Effectiveness Index is down 4% meaning he loses possession around 4% more often through all his action. Indeed, he is giving away the ball through passing 22% more often. All bad, right? Well, he is an attacker. One of the criticisms I have made of Forrest in the past is that he sometimes plays quite conservatively. He’ll take the easy pass rather than commit the opponents. He is actually an effective defensive winger. His DASR% of 29% is better than any of the other attackers. What these numbers suggest to me is that Forrest has introduced more risk into his game. He is trying more, which means more offensive actions will fail. And he is doing slightly less defensive work – I believe Rodgers was trying to get him to focus on attacking threat. Things that we are seeing more of:

He is crossing more and his overall pass completion rate has decreased from 85% to 83%;
He is taking more risks with his passing – more Pack Passes that take opponents out;
As a result, his Total Impect score is up – taking more opponents out the game;
He is suffering more fouls – committing more defenders;
He is getting into better scoring positions – more possession in the opposition box; and
Yet he is attempting more shots from outside the box – lower probability, higher risk.
Forrest’s scoring rate shot up last season when he hit more than 10 goals for the first time ever. He has maintained that this season. He has maintained exactly 0.37 goals per 90m over the two seasons. In both seasons his xG were just over 14 so he is over performing in that regard and can expect a regression to the mean. What has shot up this season is the number of assists – 11 last season to 19 this (0.24 per 90m to 0.41). Again, it looks as if this will be difficult for him to maintain. His xA is 14.826 against 19 assists whilst last season both values were 11 – i.e. he achieved as expected. Bizarrely he is creating LESS chances than last season (2.05 per 90m vs 2.33). And having LESS shots overall (2.3 per 90m vs 2.44). He continues to over perform on his Scoring Contribution with an xSC of 29.608 compared to an actual Scoring Contribution of 36 goals and assists. But his xSC is up 13% on last season. Outside the strikers, Forrest has the highest CAT Score (aggregated attacking threat measure) of 8.42 per 90m (Burke is highest in squad with 10.19). What to make of all this? To summarise, Forrest has added more risk to his game and is reaping the award in terms of productivity. However, his assisting and scoring rates exceed expected over two seasons. He can expect a regression. But overall, he has been the most productive player in the squad by Scoring Contribution with 36 assists and goals (only Edouard has a higher per 90m rate with 0.94). And in a season where striker injuries and availability continue to blight the squad, has provided the incision vital to turn overwhelming possession into points and progress.