The one tactical nuance introduced by Lennon has been a greater emphasis on crossing balls from the flanks into the box. On average, Celtic attempted 15.8 crosses per match under Rodgers and this is now 24 under Lennon.
Lennon has seemed visibly frustrated at some of the build up play from Celtic. Under Rodgers they were a team build for passing football, waiting for moments to play in through balls or quick connections to open up deep and low block defences. Lennon thinks that getting the ball into the box more quickly and directly will lead to defences being broken down. Is he right?
There are a number of studies you can read online. Here is a selection, with highlights.
Frankfurt School of Finance and Management Study (2013)
This paper presented at the Harvard University New England Symposium on Statistics in Sports (NESSIS) can be found here.
“crossing from an open play is hugely inefficient, only 1 open cross out of 91.92 leads to a goal on average.”
“stronger teams miss more goal opportunities in general when crossing than weaker teams.”
“Stronger teams have more options how to score and open play crossing seems as one of the suboptimal ways of a goal creation.”
“Strong observational bias on TV highlights that show mostly good crosses and crosses leading to goals.”
“The impact of crossing on goals is negative for most of the teams, it is neutral at best.”
“Stronger attacking teams tend to have a more negative impact on scoring than weaker teams ….. This is due to the fact that aerial delivery of the ball has less precision and thus more luck than skill is involved. Stronger teams benefit more from situations that depend on skill in contrast to situations that depend on luck.”
Spielverlagerung (2015)
The respected football analysis site published An Ineffective Tool? in 2015.
“However, after years of statistically analysing football, it should be common sense that knocking the ball into the box is not the most effective way of using ball possession in the opposing half.”
“Crossing is seen as a counter to the opposition parking the bus – a cornerstone of English football thinking.”
“And remember, every inaccurate cross means the team loses the ball, even if it hurtles through the six yard box”
“Only 13 percent of all Bundesliga goals stemmed directly from a cross, while the average Bundesliga team needed 80.24 crosses for scoring a single goal. A Premier League side needed 67.46.”
“Overall, teams in big four leagues required 71.97 open crosses per goal on average.”
“There is no distinct correlation between the percentage of shots taken in the penalty area and the number of open crosses.”
FourFourTwo (2016)
The well-known football magazine FourFourTwo produced the article What's the point of crossing? Why getting it in the mixer might be counter-productive in 2016.
“And near the top of the puzzlers pile: how everyone came to the conclusion that the easiest way to score is by plonking the ball onto the head of a striker from 50 yards away, so that he can generate the power and direction to deflect a pass he might not receive towards a goal he isn’t facing.”
“Of those 92 balls lobbed, chipped or blasted into the penalty area, 73 don’t find a team-mate, so four out of five centres instantly hand over possession to the other team.”
“ Without a plan, deliveries from wide areas amount to hoping for the best with no reason to be hopeful. It’s buying a ticket to a lottery that doesn’t exist. Defenders aren’t worried.”
“Sunday, February 9, 2014 was a bad PR day for crossing. Manchester United made 82 arguments for it while supporters looked on, mouths agape, as each centre was cleared and bottom-of-the-table visitors Fulham earned a 2-2 draw. “I hadn’t headed that many balls since the Conference,” reflected Fulham’s 6ft 7in centre-back, the aptly named Dan Burn. It was the nadir of David Moyes’ 10-month tenure at Old Trafford, and he took crossing’s reputation down with him.”
(Note that Moyes was in the stand on Sunday and Celtic are potentially looking for a new manager. Just saying. )
“Crossing makes luck a factor, levelling the playing field when you’re the better team.”
“As one put it: “[Passing] is more deadly, if less spectacular, than the senseless policy of running along the lines and centring just in front of the goalmouth, where the odds are nine to one on the defenders.” Who said it? Herbert Chapman, 90 years ago. Maybe football isn’t so quick to learn after all."
American Soccer Analysis
The excellent US football analytics site describes the impact of crossing on their Expected Goals model:
"Passing
In addition to the typical patterns of play (like set pieces or the regular run of play), we now indicate whether the shot was assisted, and if so, whether it was via cross, through ball, or neither. Crosses detract from the shot's likelihood to go in, while through balls increase a shot's likelihood of going in. Teams getting a lot of chances off crosses must win the quantity battle, because they won't likely win the quality battle."
Crossing is something weaker teams do to level the playing field. Better teams have more options to break teams down than chancing to luck, which levels the playing field against a weaker opponent. Celtic are overwhelmingly the dominant team domestically.
Flexi-Forward
The other “innovation” Lennon has introduced is to stop the flexi-forward (thank ETims for that label) approach Rodgers had implemented since the end of January. This involved a rotation of Edouard, Burke, Weah, Forrest, Sinclair across the forward positions. Trying different configurations to keep the defences guessing and altering the pace and style of the attack. Celtic scored 2.36 goals per game from January to Rodger’s leaving. They are averaging 1.3 under Lennon.
The points are related. Introducing Hayes who banged in 7 unsuccessful crosses in the first half away to Hibernian, and lost possession 9 times in the final 3rd, is not as an effective solution to breaking down stubborn defences as rotating the aforementioned fast, skilful talent.
Yes, I know Celtic scored on Saturday against Kilmarnock from a cross. But if you have the same chance as a header than a shot with feet, you are approximately 100% less likely to score with a headed effort according to the Expected Goals model I use.
Celtic will continue to, at best, grind their way to the end of the season. If Lennon is true to his word that he doesn’t want to change anything, he needs to reign in the aimless mixer balls and unleash the array of attacking talent available.