The video of Hibernian’s recent 2-2 draw at Celtic Park must be well worn at Den’s Park, as the visitors imposed a very similar system on the Champions. Both goalkeepers were called into significant action in a stretched game with little controlled possession. Nevertheless, if Celtic avoid defeat against Hibernian on Saturday, that will be 60 unbeaten domestically. For the purposes of this analysis, all comparisons are versus other Scottish opponents only. Unfamiliar terms (and indeed familiar ones) are covered in the Glossary.
Passing Success
Dundee were highly effective in stopping Celtic’s possession based game to the extent normally seen against Scottish opposition.

Celtic completed less than half the number of open play passes than normal. Even at set pieces, Celtic completed only 65% of attempted passes, their lowest of the season. And with lower pass completion, Celtic control was minimised further by the relative poor quality of the passing – recording their lowest success rate of the season.

Please take my word for it, 8% off the average is huge. It is the equivalent to playing Aberdeen away, Celtic’s toughest domestic game. Overall, Celtic had 503 possessions of the ball. The only time this was lower last season was against Hapoel Be’er Sheva and Barcelona away.

Celtic average 71% possession domestically but managed only 55%. 15% of Celtic’s passes took out at least one opponent, their highest of the season. This was due to the game being stretched and therefore passes could be found lacking a compact defence. It is easier to score a higher % when you complete less passes and normally Celtic hit 80 pack passes but managed just 58 here. Stopping Celtic is one thing, but you must play when you have the ball. Dundee did not disappoint on that front. With 222 open play passes, they surpassed any other domestic opposition by 29. Last season Dundee lost all three League games by one goal margins, averaging just 124 completed passes per match. Only Ross County have surpassed their 74% pass completion rate.

I lauded Hibernian’s performance in the last home game but even they only managed 39% possession. Dundee’s Possession Effectiveness Index (PEI) of 70% is the highest by any Scottish opponent. Dundee pushed three forwards high onto the Celtic back four, restricting passing out from De Vries in particular. He completed only 10 of 17 passes from open play. From set plays, he completed only 3 from 13. With the tall wing backs O’Hara and Holt restricting wide passes out from the back (and no Lustig), and a smothering man marking system in central midfield, Griffiths was left to fend for high balls against three centre backs on occasions. An untested central midfield pairing of Kouassi, making his first start of the season, and Ntcham, struggled to gain control. Neither reached 30 completed passes. Brown averages 89 completed pass per 90m and Ntcham 72. As we know, possession and passing often provides a framework for victory, but doesn’t guarantee the points.
The Sharp End
The game was stretched, or broken as Mourinho would say, throughout. Celtic dominated the first 6 minutes, completing 8 pack events, bypassing the Dundee lines with ease. Three shots at goal resulted, with 2 on target. Dundee adjusted their defensive organisation and thereafter it was more akin to basketball. For the remaining 39 minutes of the half, Celtic completed 20 pack passes and Dundee 17. Before the Celtic goal on 6 minutes, Dundee had completed 9 pack passes to Celtic’s 4, creating 2 shots. Only St. Johnstone have made Celtic wait longer than the 61st minute to score. Even after the goal, Dundee had 6 shots to Celtic’s 5.

When faced with a high press and fractured possession, swazz one in the corner.
But despite having an equitable share of possession and stopping Celtic monopolising the ball for long periods, Celtic had an average game creating chances. Not good news for Dundee. Averaging 7.9 shots on target, Celtic managed 8. Additionally, Celtic were above average in having 29 possessions in the Dundee box. Creating shooting chances in dangerous areas therefore was not an issue for Celtic despite the fractured possession. Scoring only 1 goal, Celtic nevertheless managed 42% of their shots on target, against an average of 38%. The chances were not of the highest quality as only 13% were converted to goals compared to a season average of conversion of 38% of on target shots. An all shot conversion rate of 5% is the season’s lowest for Celtic. Bain made 7 saves and De Vries 4 – and 2 of De Vries’s saved can be classified as Defensive Saves given the difficulty.

Deacon blue
Only Ross County have forced more saves from a Celtic ‘keeper so far this season with 5. 36% of Dundee’s efforts were on Target, compared to the season average for Celtic opponents of 28%. Similarly, the 7 Bain pulled off was 1 below the season high. The Expected Goals (xG) model results from the 8 Celtic and 4 Dundee shots on target (the opposition average 2.1) is very close.

By chances created, as expressed by Expected Assists (xA) Celtic had more of an advantage – 1.516 to 1.309. However, each side had 1 Big Chance: Deacon one on one with De Vries from 8 yards for Dundee; and Leigh Griffiths similarly through one on one with Bain. The data suggests 1-1 would have been a fair result, and Dundee can rue the 2 exceptional saves from De Vries. Celtic created some good chances but did not score from one – Ntcham’s long range squiggler registering no more than about a 2% chance of success on the ol’ xG model. Dundee can be proud of much of their effort, but if you don’t take your chances……….

Rodgers is small, but McCann is far away…