While early season hammerings of domestic opposition are a welcome return to a semblance of normality following the travails of the 2025-2026 season, they have also not necessarily been harbingers for European or even domestic success.
This week’s column is intended as a gentle reminder as to why extrapolating domestic dominance against poorly run opposition should probably not be extrapolated analytically when trying to forecast into the future.
During the first weeks of Ange Postecoglou’s tenure, for example, Celtic pummeled Dundee 6-0 on August 8th, 2021, while posting 4.51 in NPxG on 27 non-penalty shots.
A week later, Celtic would win a closer League cup game versus Hearts 3-2, but while posting 5.38 NPxG on 35 shots (all data via Wyscout).
As I have often said, nuance along historical timelines is not a normal part of our memories - we generally like to summarize periods using highlights when outcomes are positive and lowlights when the opposite.
Along the Postecoglou first-season-timeline, getting knocked out of Champions League qualifier by Midtjylland and then squeaking by AZ Alkmaar to avoid being knocked out of Europe altogether occurred during the stretch which included those hammerings. As did a loss in Ange’s first derby, and 4-3 loss away to Real Betis in what was analogous to a basketball game. Celtic remained well down the domestic table into October.
This periodic walk down memory is not to suggest the current season is a direct analog with that 2021-2022 season, but there are elements of similarity relative to major squad overhaul.
More importantly, let us not all fall into the analytical trap of drawing too many conclusions from a single game!
Even the 2020-2021 season had a different experiential timeline at this point of that season. The first league game was a 5-1 hammering of Hamilton Academical with 4.36 NPxG on 26 shots, and a 6-0 destruction of KR Reykjavik with 3.80 NPxG on 25 shots in that odd season’s first Champions League qualifier.
In fact, Celtic would not lose it’s first domestic game until the October 17th derby, with just the 1-1 draw away to Kilmarnock on August 9th the only dropped points through the first nine league games.
Apologies, but feel an obligation to contextualize why the following analysis was conducted after what was an absolute and very enjoyable destruction of Neil McCann’s Kilmarnock side.
Obviously, a 5-1 victory with over 5 in NPxG (depending on xG model) and over 30 shots was a very welcome performance and result.
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