Celtic stare longingly up at Hibs, 1 point ahead of them in the league table. Hibs were by a distance Celtic’s most difficult domestic opponents last season. It should be a great game.
How have Hibs performed this season?
(When was the last time two sides who won 6-0 in their previous league match have met in the following game? Sounds very 1950s.)
Hibs are the SPFL top scorers with 19. Things have gone their way. Their Expected Goals is 11.89 and this over performance by 7.11 is by some distance the highest in the SPFL.
Over a small sample and in one game there is no suggestion this might change, but it is a difficult trend to maintain.
Along with Hamilton (!), Hibs are converting 46% of all shots they get on target. This is 9% higher than the next team and 20% better than Celtic are achieving.
Along with Kilmarnock, Hibs are converting 16% of all shots whilst Celtic manage only 9%. Last season Celtic converted 11% of all shots and their opponents 10%. Again, 16% will be difficult to maintain over the long term.
Interestingly (!) Hibs have the lowest Expected Goals per shot in the SPFL. Their shots average 0.103 of a goal chance of going in. The Mallan effect?
Celtic create better quality chances on average with an xG of 0.126 per shot. Despite this Celtic are still 5.29 goals behind their total xG. Another hammering coming?
Hibs are pretty tight defensively, not a tradition. They have only conceded 6 goals. Their xG against is 6.41 so Lennon has achieved sustainable defensive solidity.
Predictions of a goal fest for Celtic v Hibs yet the two sides allow the least number of shots against in the SPFL. Whilst the league average is 85, Celtic have allowed only 52 and Hibs 57 shots.
Only 21 shots against Celtic and 23 shots against Hibs have been on target. They are ranked 1 and 2 in the SPFL after 8 games by this metric.
No team comes close to Celtic in possession retention, with the Champions dominating 69% of the play. Hibs are ranked 2nd however on 54%. Tight midfield battle ahead.
No team has been awarded less fouls than Hibs (and Livingston). Both have been given 83 fouls against their opponents. Hibs’ opponents get 0.12 fouls per min.
Hibs are on a 2 game away winning run in the SPFL.
But prior to that they drew at St Johnstone then lost at Livingston (which as we know is now officially the hardest away day in the league).
In summary, Celtic are still under performing on shot conversion and Hibs over performing. Having said that, with both sides looking to dominate possession, and with the visitors having 2nd place to defend, I can’t see anything other than a very cagey game.
But predictions are for mugs. Enjoy the data and make your own mind up!