Celtic’s “catch up” to Christmas continues tonight with a “must win” game against Hearts as they face a run of ties after their main rival plays.
A 7-point gap already seems daunting, and worse, Hearts could take second spot with a win tonight.
For a fuller discussion on this game check out the latest Huddle Breakdown.
A Hearty Start
Hearts are the only team outside top two with a positive goal difference (+11).
Their unbeaten start to the SPFL season lasted 11 games but they have only 2 wins in the last 7 league games. The Jambos haven’t won away in the SPFL since the end of August.
The patchy form coincided with the absence of Boyce (6 league goals off 6.13 xG) and Halliday – ok I’m messing with you on the last one.
Good / Lucky?
I recently introduced this framework, tongue in cheek of course, to assess goal difference versus xG difference. Depending on the variance between actual and expected goals, you end up in a quadrant on the “Good / Lucky”-o-meter.

Celtic really need to start putting the ball in the netty! Celtic have scored 2.29 goals per game but their xG90 is 2.96. Around ¾ of a goal is being left out there, on average, every game.
As for Hearts, they occupy the rarefied top right usually reserved exclusively for Positive Variance FC! Hearts are pretty much on their xG for goals against, but are over performing in goals for.
Hearts Attack
All the hoary old word plays coming out today.
As mentioned, Boyce is having a great season and it will be interesting if they make the brave move to support him with both Mackay-Steven and McKay. Both have high xScoring Contributions (0.52 and 0.38). Both have respectable xG per shot of 0.17 and 0.14. It would be quite a statement of attacking intent if both start, and interestingly both are also decent in the press as well as their attacking pace.
Hearts ranked 3rd for volume of shots but are not so accurate – 7th for opposition keeper saves and 0.1 xG per shot overall compared to Celtic’s 0.15.
Likely Style
Hearts have been consistent in sticking with 3-4-3 (or variant with a “10”) all season and I wouldn’t expect them to change tonight.
Traditionally quite a long ball side, Hearts are now 4th for completed passing, and only 9th for attempted long balls but lead the league in completing them (33).
At the back, Kingsley, Souttar and Halkett are all capable of distributing effectively. Halkett attempts 7.64 long passes per game yet maintains 85% passing complete.
Central midfield will potentially be the weakest area of the team as it is reported Baningime is out injured. He is their midfield enforcer (Pressure Regains 4.22; Tackles 3 and Fouls Won 2.04) - all in 80%+ quartile for the league. Also, his 86% passing compares to the team average 75%.
If Hearts have to go with Halliday, Haring and Woodburn in the middle, Celtic should be able to win that battle through pace and mobility.
Although they have a decent defence, Gordon makes the 2nd most saves (4.27) of any keeper in the league. Despite this, the average shot against is only 0.07 xG per shot which is the lowest in the league.
Summary
Hearts rely on Gordon to a greater extent to maintain a decent defensive record. They will be a threat from set plays but are quite vulnerable themselves from such situations.
Up top they may go brave and the inform trio of Boyce, McKay and Mackay-Steven will be a worry for Celtic’s evolving back line.
Expect goals then as Celtic are certainly due a few.