Honest Mistakes 19: Glasgow Derby

The final derby of the season to review for the Yorkshire Whistler

This covers the derby match from 4^th May.

The impact of incorrect big calls can be evaluated using the framework outlined here -> Honest Mistakes in the SPFL.

04/05/25 The Rangers vs Celtic

Incident 1

Referee: Nick Walsh

Game Minute: 37^th

Score At Time: 0-0

Incident: Taylor goes down in the box

Outcome: No decision.

Evidence: https://x.com/Zeshankenzo/status/1919401813817590195

Yorkshire Whistler Verdict:

Initial on field decision: No decision

Taylor runs into the box and the Rangers player for a split second tugs on the Celtic players shoulder, who then immediately drops to the ground.

Although there does appear to be the suggestion of a minor pull, this kind of physical contact happens multiple times in any game. As a referee, we are expected to consider the impact and how sustained any holding or pulling offences appear to be. There have been various other incidents reviewed over the last couple of seasons, similar in nature where ‘no foul’ was the expected outcome.

For me the way Taylor’s legs spin out from under him is not consistent with the slight contact he feels on his shoulder and I feel he is trying to ‘buy the foul’.

Not impactful or sustained enough for me to feel the decision was incorrect.

Verdict: CORRECT decision

Expected Points Outcome: No impact

Incident 2

Referee: Nick Walsh

Game Minute: 80^th

Score At Time: 1-1

Incident: Hagi goes down in the box

Outcome: No decision.

Evidence: Rangers 1-1 Celtic | Points Shared In Close Derby | William Hill Premiership

At 4:28

Yorkshire Whistler Verdict:

Initial on field decision: No decision

Hagi and a Celtic defender both look to react to a parry from the Celtic keeper and neither appears to play the ball before there is contact with each other. The Celtic player has an outstretched leg that makes contact with Hagi as he also begins to stretch for the ball. For me this is expected mutual contact for a contested ball and I don’t feel Hagi is impeded unfairly in the context of this challenge.

Verdict: CORRECT decision

Expected Points Outcome: No impact

Summary

As the season meanders to a close, the patterns of non-assistance continue, but I’ll do a full review at the end of the term.

This leaves the overall position thus:

Celtic have 0.74 MORE expected points, and The Rangers also have 0.35 MORE due to the impact of Honest Mistakes. So, Celtic’s expected advantage is 0.39 xPts.

Celtic led by 17 points after 35 games and were already champions.