Honest Mistakes - 2024/25 Season Ends

The remaining matches to game week 38.

This covers the end of the league season.

The impact of incorrect big calls can be evaluated using the framework outlined here -> Honest Mistakes in the SPFL.

14/05/25 Aberdeen vs Celtic

Incident 1

Referee: Steven McLean

Game Minute: 78^th

Score At Time: 1-4

Incident: Dorrington trips Idah

Outcome: foul to Celtic, second YC to Dorrington

Evidence: Aberdeen 1-5 Celtic | Kenny Scores On Debut As Celtic Hit FIVE Past Dons | William Hill Premiership

At 3:18

Yorkshire Whistler Verdict:

Initial on field decision: 2nd yellow card for Dorrington so sent off

Dorrington, already on a caution, gets caught out with a through ball and makes a clumsy stretch from behind that trips Idah and stops a promising attack. Clear cut cautionable offence and in this case results in a sending off for two cautions.

Verdict: CORRECT decision

Expected Points Outcome: No impact

14/05/25 The Rangers vs Dundee Utd

Incident 1

Referee: Calum Scott

Game Minute: 73^rd

Score At Time: 1-1

Incident: Diomande goes down in the box

Outcome: No decision. Penalty to TRFC on VAR review.

Evidence: Rangers 3-1 Dundee United | Dessers Double Sinks Dundee United | William Hill Premiership

At 2:38

Yorkshire Whistler Verdict:

Initial on field decision: No decision but after VAR review, on field referee awards a penalty kick

A Dundee United defender attempts to get in front of Diomande with his left leg who goes down under the challenge. On field referees view is slightly blocked and isn’t sure a foul is committed. However on the replay it does appear to show the defender clips the right foot of Diomande and I can see why the VAR review was recommended. Diomande is fouled and a penalty kick is the expected outcome.

Verdict: CORRECT decision

Expected Points Outcome: No impact

17/05/25 Hibernian vs The Rangers

Incident 1

Referee: Nick Walsh

Game Minute: 15^th

Score At Time: 0-1

Incident: Raskin challenges Bushiri

Outcome: No decision. (VAR finds no evidence ball crosses the line).

Evidence: Hibernian 2-2 Rangers | Hibs Twice Come From Behind To Earn Point | William Hill Premiership

At 0:40

Yorkshire Whistler Verdict:

Initial on field decision: No decision (VAR found no evidence that the ball crosses the line

As Raskin challenges with Bushiri on the goal line, the Hibs defender ends up on his back onside his own net and he ball after a couple of deflections, hits the bottom of his right foot before eventually being cleared.

At this point of contact on his right foot, from the camera angle presented, the boot certainly appears to be a good 2 yards over the goal line - as such when the ball makes contact with his studs it is my opinion the whole of the ball crossed the goal line momentarily.

Totally understandable why this might not have seen by the on field team given the circumstances but on balance, I feel a goal should have been awarded in this passage of play.

Verdict: INCORRECT decision - goal expected outcome

Expected Points Outcome: -0.9 xPts for TRFC

Summary

A minor bombshell, as there is a mistake in the final game of the season. Only six of 47 incidents reviewed were deemed to be incorrect outcomes by the independent, expert Yorkshire Whistler, whom we all must thank for another season of patience and time.

This leaves the overall position thus:

Celtic have 0.74 MORE expected points, and The Rangers have 0.55 LESS due to the impact of Honest Mistakes. So, Celtic’s expected advantage is 1.29 xPts.

Celtic were champions by 17 points after 38 matches.

A review of refereeing this season will follow in the summer.