I saw Willie Collum on the VAR Review show stating that the Trusty red card was absolutely the correct decision, while the decision not to award a penalty for the foul on Scales was absolutely the wrong decision. See: https://youtu.be/Rb8BPN5Z-Fk?si=daeTsImXcpQZ47_D
He says: “This should be a penalty kick. This should be an on-field review for a penalty.”
And; “We’ve coached the referees; this is a penalty kick for us.”
How do the expected points shake out if the penalty is awarded? - it's 1-1 at the time, we're down to 10 men and there are 15 minutes remaining.
I find the DOGSO rules puzzling. Sterling stops a ball, albeit with accidental contact, from almost certainly going in yet an attacker 20+ yards from goal can cut across a defender initiating accidental contact and the defender gets sent off. Which has more likelihood of an actual goal?
The Livo tackle for me was outside the box so should have been a free kick, but a red card.
The Olusanya tackle on Tierney is 10x worse than the outcry on the Ox. That for me should really be a red as the rulebook doesn't say anything about intention
Alan, from the replay it looks like the the contact from the tackle by the livi player is outside the box? If it is I assume this massively would change xPTs and xG
The VAR Review shows that it was a foul, and that it was definitively outside the box, and so the 'proper' sequence therefore should have been; on field review, red card, free kick.
I saw Willie Collum on the VAR Review show stating that the Trusty red card was absolutely the correct decision, while the decision not to award a penalty for the foul on Scales was absolutely the wrong decision. See: https://youtu.be/Rb8BPN5Z-Fk?si=daeTsImXcpQZ47_D
He says: “This should be a penalty kick. This should be an on-field review for a penalty.”
And; “We’ve coached the referees; this is a penalty kick for us.”
How do the expected points shake out if the penalty is awarded? - it's 1-1 at the time, we're down to 10 men and there are 15 minutes remaining.
Hi Tony
Would have been huge - 1.08 xPts
Hmmm... 😔
I find the DOGSO rules puzzling. Sterling stops a ball, albeit with accidental contact, from almost certainly going in yet an attacker 20+ yards from goal can cut across a defender initiating accidental contact and the defender gets sent off. Which has more likelihood of an actual goal?
I advocate for some kind of xG model to AI assess DOGSO incidents and indeed penalties, with a threshold having to be met for Reds/penalties.
The Livo tackle for me was outside the box so should have been a free kick, but a red card.
The Olusanya tackle on Tierney is 10x worse than the outcry on the Ox. That for me should really be a red as the rulebook doesn't say anything about intention
"Fan disagrees about call by neutral impacting their club" shocker, Ryan :)
Alan, from the replay it looks like the the contact from the tackle by the livi player is outside the box? If it is I assume this massively would change xPTs and xG
The VAR Review shows that it was a foul, and that it was definitively outside the box, and so the 'proper' sequence therefore should have been; on field review, red card, free kick.
I don't debate the calls unless more clarification is needed
It looked very close to me - i couldn't be sure either way personally fwiiw