This edition covers fixtures up to the completion of match day 34.
The impact of a call being incorrect can be evaluated using the framework outlined here -> Honest Mistakes in the SPFL.
07/05/23 Hearts vs Celtic
Incident 1
Referee Nick Walsh Game Minute 42nd Score At Time 0-0
Incident Cochrane pulls down Maeda Outcome Foul to Celtic and YC to Cochrane; VAR upgrade to RC to Cochrane Evidence (4) Heart of Midlothian 0-2 Celtic | Celtic Clinch Title With Win Over 10-Man Hearts | cinch Premiership - YouTube
At 1:40
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict Cochrane does impede Maeda about 4/5 yards outside the box clearly. In real time, the on-field referee has to make a snap call based on what he sees in front of him from his particular angle. He sees 3 other Hearts defenders all running back towards goal as well Cochrane and given that the ball is out wide rather than central, feels on balance that this is a promising attack (caution) rather than denial of a goal scoring opportunity (sending off offence).
Without the aid of VAR, I would say this is a marginal call either way and so don t feel the referee made a clear and obvious error with the information in front of his eyes at the time. However, when VAR intervenes, they can pause/review this passage of play. Under video review, it certainly appears Maeda was poised to break through unopposed into the box and either get a clear shot off or even square the ball into the path of his teammate in a more central position. This does look to constitute the denial of a goalscoring opportunity. On this basis I would support the final decision made to issue the red card.
VERDICT: CORRECT DECISION
Expected Points
Outcome
No impact
07/05/23 The Rangers vs Aberdeen
Incident 1
Referee John Beaton Game Minute 32nd Score At Time 0-0
Incident Cantwell pushes Scales over Outcome Foul to Aberdeen; YC to Cantwell and Scales Evidence BBC iPlayer - Sportscene - Premiership Highlights 2022/23: 07/05/2023
At 32:09
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict Scales uses his body to Cantwell’s run, legally in my opinion. Cantwell reacts and seems to shove Scales in his lower arm. Scales goes down theatrically holding his face. A small melee ensues.
The yellow card for Cantwell is certainly justified as Cantwell is clearly adopting an aggressive attitude. Not a violent conduct offence though, so certainly did not warrant a red card. I’m a little bit puzzled as to why Scales picks up the yellow card though. Without further clarification, the only reason I can see that would be worthy of a yellow card is that the referee deemed Scales reaction to the shove as feigning of a facial injury to get Cantwell sent off. (cautionable as an attempt to deceive the referee). Unless I’m given further evidence to the contrary, this is my view on Scales’ caution.
VERDICT: CORRECT DECISION
Expected Points
Outcome
No impact
Incident 2
Referee John Beaton Game Minute 34th Score At Time 0-0
Incident Goldson and Duk clash Outcome No decision Evidence BBC iPlayer - Sportscene - Premiership Highlights 2022/23: 07/05/2023
At 33:05
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict Bit of grappling going off here between two physical players. I suspect the referee does not award a free kick as Duk eventually shrugs off Goldson’s attentions before winning a corner.
Duk attempts to cut inside and then slips and slides into Goldson, who then puts his arms around Duk as a result. It does look messy and if the referee had awarded a free kick and issued a yellow card against Goldson for holding/preventing a promising attack, it would have been quite justified. However, you can see from Duk’s reaction he just wants to keep playing and does not feel like he has been impeded. The holding offence starts and finishes outside the area, even though the players land inside the box, so I am happy that a penalty offence is not considered here either.
VERDICT: INCORRECT DECISION. On a balance a marginal call to allow the play to continue or award the offensive free kick. Given that both players end up on the ground momentarily and feel the safer option of the two would have been to award the free kick. A subjective call and certainly not a clear and obvious error.
Expected Points
Outcome
No impact
Summary
My thanks as always to the Yorkshire Whistler.
Howls of pain from Sky Sports for what was a conclusive red card in the end for Cochrane of Heart of Midlothian.
But, the refs had a good week all told.
In terms of impact on the expected points picture, it is as you were:

Based on the in-match game state when the decisions were made (or not made), The Rangers have 4.39 MORE expected points due to the cumulative impact of Honest Mistakes and Celtic 3.52 LESS.
A swing of 7.91 xPts.
Celtic are now champions after 34 weeks.
I wonder what impact, if any, this has on the trends of honest mistakes?