The last round of matches occurred on the 2nd January before the break for winter. Celtic went to St Mirren whilst The Rangers hosted Kilmarnock.
The impact of big calls being incorrect can then be evaluated using the framework outlined here -> Honest Mistakes in the SPFL.
02/01/24 St Mirren vs Celtic
Incident 1
Referee David Munro Game Minute 45th Score At Time 0-2
Incident Alistair Johnston goes down defending a throw then Olusanya fouls Hart Outcome Foul to Celtic and YC to Olusanya; VAR review leads to RC upgrade to Olusanya Evidence St Mirren 0-3 Celtic | Maeda Scores After Just 54 Seconds | cinch Premiership (youtube.com)
At 1:20
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict Initial on field decision: Foul to Celtic and Olusanya initially cautioned, but this is upgraded to a sending off after VAR review.
Two incidents in one passage of play here. Firstly, a throw in arrives at the feet at the St Mirren player who puts its arm instinctively to shield the ball from the defender. This arm appears to make contact with Johnston’s face, and he immediately goes to ground. In my opinion there is no reckless nature or intent from the St Mirren player, and it appears the contact is minimal to say the least. I feel Johnston falls to the ground as soon as he feels the brush in his face and could easily have stayed on his feet. I do not feel any foul was committed here, attacker puts his arms out (not up) to protect his space and would not have penalised this offence.
However, the following ball into the box then sees Olusanya fully extend his leg and studs to make contact with the ball and Hart, very bravely dives in and receives studs in the face for his troubles.
I have a small amount of sympathy for the attacker here as he is entitled to challenge for the ball and Hart is diving in and putting his head where the expected contact will be. However, on review, the attacker is late, his leg is fully extended which means he is trying to play the ball with his studs showing and his foot is a good meter off the ground. On this basis, it looks like a challenge that will endanger the safety of the opponent and so is rightly adjudged an act of serious foul play and the red card is fully supported.
Verdict: CORRECT decision to issue the red card
Expected Points
Outcome
No impact
02/01/24 The Rangers vs Kilmarnock
Incident 1
Referee John Beaton Game Minute 45th Score At Time 1-0
Incident Sima scores for TRFC Outcome Goal to TRFC Evidence Rangers 3-1 Kilmarnock | Gers Sign Off For Winter Break With Dominant Win | cinch Premiership (youtube.com)
At 1:55
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict Initial on field decision: Goal awarded
Under pressure from a Kilmarnock defender, Sima receives the ball into his chest before turning and slamming the ball home.
There is a question of a potential handball in the build-up as Sima goes to control the ball. His right arm extends out as the ball hits him, but I do not feel there isn’t any conclusive evidence the ball hits his arm below the imaginary ‘t-shirt’ line which would have constituted a foul. If anything, I suspect the ball hits him on the shoulder, rather than the arm.
Verdict: CORRECT decision to award the goal
Expected Points
Outcome
No impact
Incident 2
Referee John Beaton Game Minute 59th Score At Time 2-0
Incident Ball hits Souttar in the box Outcome No decision; Penalty to Kilmarnock upon VAR review Evidence Rangers 3-1 Kilmarnock | Gers Sign Off For Winter Break With Dominant Win | cinch Premiership (youtube.com)
At 2:28
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict Initial on field decision: Initially no decision, but penalty awarded to Kilmarnock after VAR review.
Kilmarnock work the ball down the right-hand side and the cross is then blocked at close range by the sliding body of Souttar. His proximity is very close to the ball so I can understand why the on-field referee doesn’t give the handball offence in real time.
On VAR review, I was surprised the referee overturned his decision in all honesty.
Yes, the ball does hit Souttar’s right elbow, but the arm is not fully extended, but rather bent inwards slightly. Given the body shape, the sliding motion and the close proximity of Souttar to when the ball was struck, I do not believe this meets the criteria for a handball offence.
Verdict: INCORRECT decision to award the penalty kick.
Expected Points
Outcome
-0.15 xPts TRFC
Summary
My thanks as always to the Yorkshire Whistler.
The 75-match run without conceding a penalty comes to an end in a laughably absurd manner. Somehow a penalty is concocted for handball, but the Verdict above really speaks for itself.
That cancels out all the concerns regarding such an improbably run and we can all go back to normal now. Eh, no, that’s not how data and patterns over multiple seasons works. Nice try though!
In terms of the overall position:

The Rangers have 0.32 less points and Celtic 0.8 less than expected due to the impact of Honest Mistakes. The Rangers are benefiting by an estimated 0.48 xPts due to the impact of honest mistakes.
Celtic led by eight points after 22 matches having played two games more.