I outlined a framework to assess the impact of Honest Mistakes in the SPFL..
Today, there is a wee bonus with a couple of non SPFL Celtic decisions that caught the eye.
We then get back to serious business and cover the games from match day 14 – 27th and 28th November.
23/11/21 Clyde v Celtic B – Glasgow Cup
Our first bonus decision is in the Glasgow Cup! A remarkable sequence of decision making ensured that Celtic B’s 1-0 lead evaporated in the final minute.
Referee Chris Gentles Game Minute 89th
Incident Goodwillie runs through and tumbles as Hazard comes outside his box Outcome Red Card Hazard, Penalty to Clyde Evidence https://twitter.com/OwenJamesBrown/status/1463512862408728578?s=20
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict Watched the attached clip several times and get more aggravated upon each watch.
It’s almost like a training video for new referees to spot as many mistakes in one piece of footage as you can!
Let’s start with the refereeing positioning which can only be confirmed in the first second of the video. He is half way in the other half of the pitch as the long ball is launched over the top. Within 2/3 secs the ball is almost at the Celtic 18 yard box, so the referee can only be up to the half way line at best when he making a key match incident decision.
Surely he’s guessing at what he thinks has unfolded? He incorrectly awards a foul for what appears to be no contact by the Celtic goalkeeper. The opposing forward goes round the keeper and then appears to trip on his own heel. I do not believe any contact is made by the keeper to cause this ‘heel clip’ and that should really have been the end of the incident.
However once the foul is given, the next contentious part of this decision is to award a penalty. The ‘contact’ from the keeper is a good 2 yds outside the penalty area and is not even close to being considered as a penalty decision based on the proximity of where the challenge was made.
For me the assistant referee has to become involved in the decision making process.
In terms of assistant referee’s level of involvement in match decisions, one of the key phrases used in pre match instructions delivered by a referee to his team, is a good AR ‘assists and not insists’.
In real terms an AR is there to assist the referee in making a decision when asked for their input and not insist the referee comes over to them to over ride a decision that the AR might not agree.
There is art to refereeing decision making whereby a good referee will have a feel for when he is only making an ‘educated guess’ decision on an incident and therefore when he should ask for the ARs input or when he is clear and confident of what he had seen and therefore does not need any AR input.
In relation to this footage surely the referee knows he can’t be certain of what he has seen from the expected location of where he is making the decision from.
I’d be interested to know if the AR was consulted. If he was, the AR should have easily been able to confirm the challenge was outside the box (although he would not have over ruled the referee decision to call it as a foul unless the referee told the AR ‘I genuinely don’t know about level of contact - what’s your view’?
Verdict: Incorrect decision. No foul, no penalty, no red card.
25/11/21 Bayer Leverkusen vs Celtic – Europa League
From the Europa League next where Celtic were awarded a penalty against Bayer Leverkusen. Much debate on Celtic twitter on whether Hladesky should have been sent off also.
Only one man for the job!
Referee Anastasios Sidiropoulos Game Minute 40th
Incident Celtic cross into box, Furuhashi is taken out by keeper Hladesky Outcome Penalty to Celtic, YC to Hladesky Evidence Highlights: Leverkusen 3-2 Celtic - UEFA Europa League | UEFA.com
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict The Leverkusen keeper goes to punch clear the cross and mistimes his attempt. Instead of connecting with the ball he connects with the Celtic forwards temple!
I believe the reason the referee shows a yellow card to the keeper rather than send him off relates to the DOGSO law interpretation:
Where a player commits an offence against an opponent within their own penalty area which denies an opponent an obvious goal-scoring opportunity and the referee awards a penalty kick, the offender is cautioned if the offence was an attempt to play the ball; in all other circumstances (e.g. holding, pulling, pushing, no possibility to play the ball etc.) the offending player must be sent off.
The keeper does genuinely attempt to play/clear the ball with his hands. I think this is an example of where keepers are treated slightly differently as a result of being allowed to use their hands in open play. This is akin to a defender gong to head the ball and his head catching the opponents head rather than the ball. Painful but in all likeness, a genuine attempt to play the ball.
Clearly any outfield player that catches an opponent in the head with clenched fists is likely to be sent off for serous foul play or violent conduct.
Verdict: Correct decision to award penalty and a YC.
Back to business with the main talking point affecting the title race being at Celtic Park.
28/11/21 Celtic vs Aberdeen
Referee Kevin Clancy Game Minute 30th
Incident Bates goes down in the box under challenge from Abada Outcome Penalty to Aberdeen Evidence BBC iPlayer - Sportscene - 2021/22: 28/11/2021
At 29:55
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict This is a tight call to make in real time. To be fair to the referee he is well placed to make the decision, close to the action with an unobstructed view.
Bates first touch is slightly heavy and Abada initially thinks he can win the ball cleanly but at the last second feels he can’t and pulls his foot back.
Bates right foot goes to the flick the ball and as his body continues in the forward movement, it is actually his trailing leg that appears to make contact with Abada standing leg.
Bates goes down under what appears to be minimal contact and the referee in real time feels there is sufficient contact from Abada’s leg and awards the penalty.
As we all know whenever a defender ‘dangles a leg’ inside the box they are potentially risking a penalty kick and asking the referee to make a big call either way.
In real time I can see why the referee awarded the penalty but on review of the footage I believe this was the wrong call.
If anything Bates momentum takes him into the retreating leg of Abada rather than Abada fouling Bates.
Verdict: Incorrect decision. No foul and no penalty kick awarded.
Expected Points
Outcome
Celtic -0.6 xPts
Explainer: A goal to Aberdeen in the 33rd minute when 0-1 down adds 0.6 xPts for them. With the penalty and goal incorrectly given, it therefore penalised Celtic’s xPts chances to the same degree.
Summary
My thanks as always to the Yorkshire Whistler.
Only one big call highlighted this week but it was the wrong one and it impacted the xPts (Expected Points) totals.
Expected Points Table
The Expected Points table is therefore:

At the moment, based on xPts, Celtic have 1.73 less points than expected due to Honest Mistakes and The Rangers have 2.2 more points than expected.
That is a 3.93 xPts swing.
The current gap at the top of the table is 4 points.