Honest Mistakes - to Week 23
Gradually catching up with the review of the big calls affecting the top two
We are gradually catching up with the Yorkshire Whistler.
The matches covered here are for the dates 9th January to 15th January.
The impact of incorrect big calls can be evaluated using the framework outlined here -> Honest Mistakes in the SPFL.
09/01/25 Dundee vs The Rangers
Incident 1
Referee: Callum Scott
Game Minute: 33rd
Score At Time: 1-0
Incident: Murray goes down in the box under challenge from Nsiala
Outcome: No decision.
Evidence: Dundee 1-1 Rangers | Rangers Held At Dundee To Fall Further Adrift Of Top | William Hill Premiership
At 1:17
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict:
Initial on field decision: No decision.
A deflected shot sees the ball spin up into the air and Murray & Nsiala both compete to get to the ball first. Murray appears to be stood waiting for the ball to drop to him as Nsiala moves forward eyes on the ball. As Nsiala jumps to head and clear the ball Murray is stood still making no attempt to jump. This makes it appear that the defender jumps and catches Murray who then drops asking for a penalty.
I believe Nsiala has every right to jump and head the ball. For me no foul is committed here, one player ones to jump for the ball and one doesn’t.
Verdict : CORRECT decision
Expected Points Outcome: No impact
11/01/25 Ross County vs Celtic
Incident 1
Referee: Matthew McDermid
Game Minute: 25th
Score At Time: 0-0
Incident: Hatate breaks into the box under pressure from Campbell
Outcome: No decision.
Evidence: Provided
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict:
Initial on field decision: no decision following VAR review
Hatate breaks into box and Campbell attempting to get pressure on the ball. Hatate stretches and gets his left foot on the ball, there is the slightest of touches between the two players and Hatate, already off balance goes to ground.
On balance i don’t feel Campbell defensive presence is enough to justify a foul on Hatate who is already stretching for the ball.
Verdict : CORRECT decision
Expected Points Outcome: No impact
Incident 2
Referee: Matthew McDermid
Game Minute: 56th
Score At Time: 0-1
Incident: Phillips goes down under challenge from Johnston
Outcome: Penalty to Ross County and YC to Johnston.
Evidence: Ross County 1-4 Celtic | Celtic Survive Scare With Three Late Goals | William Hill Premiership
At 1:13
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict:
Initial on field decision: Penalty to Ross County confirmed by VAR review
As a cross comes in Phillips appears to have a clear header on goal around the 6 yard. Johnston is a yard behind his man and can only succeed in putting his arm in the back of Phillips and concedes a penalty.
As this is not considered a genuine attempt to play the balls and Phillips is deemed to have been denied an obvious goal scoring chance, Johnston should be shown the red card.
Verdict: INCORRECT decision. Red Card expected for Johnston.
Expected Points Outcome: Celtic 0.41 xPts
Incident 3
Referee: Matthew McDermid
Game Minute: 90th
Score At Time: 1-2
Incident: Yang goes down under challenge from Brown
Outcome: Penalty to Celtic and YC for Brown after VAR review.
Evidence: Ross County 1-4 Celtic | Celtic Survive Scare With Three Late Goals | William Hill Premiership
At 3:08
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict:
Initial on field decision: No decision upgraded to penalty to Celtic and YC to Brown on VAR review
Great use of VAR here as, in full speed it’s very hard to determine what contact on ball and player Brown makes in his attempt to challenge Yang inside the box.
We can see that Brown does make a genuine attempt to play the ball with his right foot. The slow motion clearly shows he misses the ball narrowly and only succeeds in bundling Yang over. This is another DOGSO like the previous incident. Penalty correct outcome both times, but the crucial difference between the two is the consideration of if there is a genuine attempt to play the ball (yellow card) or if it’s a push/no attempt to play the ball (also known historically as a ‘professional’ foul).
For future reference, if a DOGSO occurs outside the box and so is only punished by a direct free kick, it is a sending off offence, regardless of if there is a genuine attempt to play the ball or not.
Verdict: CORRECT decision
Expected Points Outcome: No impact.
14/01/25 Dundee vs Celtic
Incident 1
Referee: Don Robertson
Game Minute: 8th
Score At Time: 0-1
Incident: Murray goes down in the box under challenge from Carter-Vickers
Outcome: No decision.
Evidence: Provided
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict:
Murray goes down under challenge from Carter-Vickers
Initial on field decision: No decision
Murray looks to get on the end of a long ball and is in front of his marker just inside the penalty box. The ball has taken a high bounce so Murray has to slow down as he waits for the ball and bring it under control. This gives Carter-Vickers the chance to put pressure on Murray. Murray then feels contact and goes to ground. For me the Celtic defender gets in Murray’s space and doesn’t make any clear attempt to tackle or impede Murray. There is a token appeal for a penalty from Murray but it is half hearted in nature, which suggests he doesn’t really feel it is a foul either.
Verdict: CORRECT decision.
Expected Points Outcome: No impact
Incident 2
Referee: Don Robertson
Game Minute: 38th
Score At Time: 0-1
Incident: Sylla goes down in the box challenging Carter-Vickers
Outcome: Foul to Dundee.
Evidence: Provided
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict:
Initial on field decision : Foul to Dundee
The two players are part of a crowded penalty area as a corner is swung in. I’ve watched this back several times over and for the life of me cannot see where any foul is committed by the Celtic man.
If anything there is a question as to if Carter-Vickers is impeded by the Dundee man, as Sylla is off balance his arm appears to catch Carter-Vickers and bring him down as well.
Given the proximity of other players in a congested area of the pitch, I wouldn’t say a clear foul is committed by Sylla and certainly no foul by the Celtic man either.
Verdict: INCORRECT decision. No foul committed
Expected Points Outcome: No impact
Incident 3
Referee: Don Robertson
Game Minute: 90th
Score At Time: 3-2
Incident: Sylla blocks a Kuhn shot
Outcome: Penalty to Celtic for handball
Evidence: Dundee 3-3 Celtic | 93rd-Minute Penalty Salvages Point In SIX-Goal Epic | William Hill Premiership
At 4:15
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict:
Initial on field decision: Penalty to Celtic for handball by Sylla.
Some sympathy for Svlla here as he throws his body in front of a goal-bound shot. Exactly the kind of last ditch blocking you hope to see from brave centre backs. As he throws his body at the ball he has no idea where it will hit him and is clearly an accidental contact of ball on hand.
However the ball hits his right elbow which is much higher than the rest of his body in motion. You can’t really rationalise this unnaturally larger body/arm shape as natural and expected in this particular context for me and so I agree with the on field decision to award the penalty.
Verdict: CORRECT decision
Expected Points Outcome: No impact
15/01/25 The Rangers vs Aberdeen
Incident 1
Referee: Kevin Clancy
Game Minute: 74th
Score At Time: 1-0
Incident: Clarkson challenges Yilmaz
Outcome: Foul to TRFC and YC to Clarkson.
Evidence: https://x.com/ScotlandSky/status/1879882082463154551
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict:
Initial on field decision: Foul to Rangers, caution to Clarkson
Clarkson is stretching to block a ball in front him and as Yilmaz gets to the ball first, the Aberdeen man only succeeds in catching the Rangers player with his right-side foot, studs slightly raised around Yilmaz inner left shin.
Periodically referred to as the infamous ‘orange card type of tackle’ it feels it should be more than yellow but not quite a red!
If the on-field ref had sent Clarkson off. I’m confident VAR would not have recommended an on-field review. Clarkson clearly catches him slightly high and slightly late with studs showing.
However, in his defence, he slows his momentum and turns his body at the last second which is a conscious effort to make sure the tackle is not one of excessive force/endangering opponents’ safety. Also, I believe the studs graze across the left shin rather plant it. Fine margins but on balance I’m happy to back the on-field decision.
Verdict: CORRECT decision.
Expected Points Outcome: No impact
Summary
My thanks as always to the Yorkshire Whistler.
A rare error uncovered this week with Alistair Johnston lucky to escape a red card at Ross County.
This leaves the overall position thus:
Celtic have 0.87 MORE expected points, and The Rangers also have 0.35 MORE due to the impact of Honest Mistakes. So, Celtic’s expected advantage is 0.52 xPts.
At this juncture, Celtic led by 13 points after 23 games.