Honest Mistakes: To Week 29

A bumper catch up, and a rare overrule, but a justified one, not a made-up one.

This review takes us up to date as Scottish Cup weekend arrives – a rest for some!

A bumper edition, then, taking in three matches apiece at the top of the SPFL.

The impact of incorrect big calls can be evaluated using the framework outlined here -> Honest Mistakes in the SPFL.

22/02/25 Hibernian vs Celtic

Incident 1

Referee: Steven McLean

Game Minute: 23rd

Score At Time: 1-0

Incident: Taylor fouls Bowie

Outcome: Free kick to Hibernian and YC to Taylor

Evidence: Sportscene - Premiership Highlights 2024/25: 22/02/2025 - BBC iPlayer

At 4:00

Yorkshire Whistler Verdict:

Taylor wins the first challenge and his forward run sees him then stretch to win the follow-up. His leg is slightly bent as he stretches which reduces the momentum/impact slightly. He does catch his opponent late with studs showing and right to be penalised as a yellow card, reckless tackle.

But doesn’t meet the excessive force/ sending off criteria for me.

Verdict: CORRECT decision

Expected Points Outcome: No impact

Incident 2

Referee: Steven McLean

Game Minute: 76th

Score At Time: 2-1

Incident: Kucharevich goes down in the box

Outcome: No decision

Evidence: Sportscene - Premiership Highlights 2024/25: 22/02/2025 - BBC iPlayer

At 8:39

Yorkshire Whistler Verdict:

The Hibs player tries to get in front of his marker and there is mutual upper-body contact from both players. However, the Hibs player then throws himself to the floor asking for the penalty. Even though the Celtic player leans forward, this is not a push and I feel any contact here should be deemed acceptable.

Therefore no foul was committed.

Verdict: CORRECT decision

Expected Points Outcome: No impact

Incident 3

Referee: Steven McLean

Game Minute: 83rd

Score At Time: 2-1

Incident: Maeda scores for Celtic

Outcome: Goal to Celtic disallowed by VAR judging the ball was out of play

Evidence: Sportscene - Premiership Highlights 2024/25: 22/02/2025 - BBC iPlayer

At 9:41

Yorkshire Whistler Verdict:

A really tight in/out decision here. Depending on angles presented you can argue either way here, my gut feeling was that all of the ball had crossed the byeline, I can’t see any clear evidence to suggest the final call was the wrong one

Verdict: CORRECT decision

It is here I need to, for the first time, interject. It was, in hindsight, very unfair to simply present the YW with the match replay without any background or context. This is, to be fair, the normal method on the basis I do not want to “lead the witness”.

However, in this instance, as well as picking up incorrectly that the goal had been disallowed on the field (even very good referees make mistakes!), the YW would not have had the benefit of the subsequent angles and debate about this incident.

When I pointed out to the YW that the VAR official Alan Muir had overruled the on-field team despite there being no evidence available to support that decision he replied:

“Although my opinion was that the correct decision (the ball went out just) was reached, I would agree with your point that VAR should not be overruling on-field decisions if they do not have sufficient evidence. I am not informed enough to comment on or critique the processes or implementation of those processes that are followed by the VAR team. I leave that to people with more knowledge and understanding of what actually happens.”

Therefore, hopefully, for one time only, the YW will suffer being overruled! The facts in this case are clear. The goal was awarded on the pitch. The absence of goal-line technology and the use of an 18-yard line camera mean that, given the basic laws of physics, it is impossible to ascertain with certainty that the ball is in or out with the available technology therefore the on-field decision cannot be overruled.

Verdict: INCORRECT DECISION – goal to Celtic

Expected Points Outcome: -0.9 xPts for Celtic

22/02/25 The Rangers vs St Mirren

Incident 1

Referee: Kevin Clancy

Game Minute: 45th

Score At Time: 0-0

Incident: Igamane fouls O’Hara

Outcome: Foul to St Mirren, RC to Igamane. VAR changes the card to YC for Igamane

Evidence: Sportscene - Premiership Highlights 2024/25: 22/02/2025 - BBC iPlayer

At 24:09

Yorkshire Whistler Verdict:

On balance, I can see why this decision was overturned. Igamane stretches in with his right foot and catches his man. At full speed and from the ref’s angle, it appears that this could be seen as a two-footed tackle (triggering excessive force criteria). However when reviewed you see the Rangers player's left leg momentarily leave the ground as well, but this being also begins to tuck in and is bent, which helps reduce the overall impact of the tackle. I feel this was a reckless (YC) tackle and the outcome was the right one.

Verdict: CORRECT decision

Expected Points Outcome: No impact

Incident 2

Referee: Kevin Clancy

Game Minute: 51st

Score At Time: 0-0

Incident: Mandron scores for St Mirren

Outcome: Goal to St Mirren

Evidence: Sportscene - Premiership Highlights 2024/25: 22/02/2025 - BBC iPlayer

At 25:17

Yorkshire Whistler Verdict:

In the build-up to this goal the Rangers defender challenging Mandron goes to the ground and a foul is initially awarded for the Rangers player.

However on review, you can clearly see the Rangers player trips himself up and the goal is rightly awarded.

Verdict: CORRECT decision

Expected Points Outcome: No impact

25/02/25 Celtic vs Aberdeen

Incident 1

Referee: John Beaton

Game Minute: 45th

Score At Time: 2-0

Incident: McGregor scores for Celtic

Outcome: Goal to Celtic

Evidence: BBC iPlayer - Sportscene - Premiership Highlights 2024/25: 25/02/2025

At 11:29

Yorkshire Whistler Verdict:

There is a question of a foul in the build-up to the ball arriving at McGregor's feet, but I see two players both fairly attempting to challenge for the ball.

This challenge sees the Aberdeen defender knocked off balance so he can’t play the ball - but I would again deem this acceptable contact.

Verdict: CORRECT decision

Expected Points Outcome: No impact

26/02/25 Kilmarnock vs The Rangers

Incident 1

Referee: Steven McLean

Game Minute: 52nd

Score At Time: 1-1

Incident: Dessers scores for TRFC

Outcome: Goal to TRFC

Evidence: Sportscene - Premiership Highlights 2024/25: 26/02/2025 - BBC iPlayer

At 9:09

Yorkshire Whistler Verdict:

From a corner Dessers scores and there are several player-on-player challenges as to be expected. I can’t see any clear fouls or infringements so the goal is correctly allowed.

For me it is a case of both players with arms around each other, there is no one party that is fouling/impeding more significantly than the other. I would deem it part and parcel of the congested penalty area we see from free kicks and corners.

Verdict: CORRECT decision

Expected Points Outcome: No impact

01/03/25 St Mirren vs Celtic

Incident 1

Referee: Matthew McDermid

Game Minute: 45th

Score At Time: 1-1

Incident: Alebiosu challenged Maeda in the box

Outcome: Penalty to Celtic

Evidence: Sportscene - Premiership Highlights 2024/25: 01/03/2025 - BBC iPlayer

At 46:45

Yorkshire Whistler Verdict:

Maeda looks to skip past his man in the box and the St Mirren defender stretches to make the block. He makes no contact with the ball but does catch Maeda's right leg clearly.

Verdict: CORRECT decision

Expected Points Outcome: No impact

Incident 2

Referee: Matthew McDermid

Game Minute: 87th

Score At Time: 2-3

Incident: Johnston challenges Idowu in the box

Outcome: No decision

Evidence: Sportscene - Premiership Highlights 2024/25: 01/03/2025 - BBC iPlayer

At 50:34

Yorkshire Whistler Verdict:

Johnston and another covering defender close down Idowu in the box, Johnstone slides in and it’s not initially clear which of three players actually plays the ball.

However, on the slow-motion replay you can see it is the St Mirren whose left foot just plays the ball before that foot I’ll caught by the studs of Johnston’s left foot. I was surprised that VAR didn’t recommend on-field review here as my opinion is that a penalty should have been awarded.

Verdict: INCORRECT decision. Penalty kick expected outcome.

Expected Points Outcome: +0.77 xPts Celtic

Summary

My thanks as always to the Yorkshire Whistler.

The Alan Muir intervention at Easter Road mirrors that of David Dickinson at Fir Park (the Jota “offside” based on pictures from Hamilton flats), the John Beaton intervention at Tynecastle (Yang becomes the only player in Scotland to be sent off for a high boot to the face and Iwata is penalised for a handball that hits him as he is being cleared out the way by his player).

VAR officials incorrectly operated outside of protocols to penalise Celtic.

Almost a pattern.

It was, as mentioned above, unfair, in retrospect, for the YW to have fully grasped the complexity of this and also the YW did not have access to all the subsequent “evidence”.

The overall direction of travel remains positive, however. Despite two errors this week, that is only six from 47 referrals (13%).

This leaves the overall position thus:

Celtic have 0.74 MORE expected points, and The Rangers have 0.35 MORE due to the impact of Honest Mistakes. So, Celtic’s expected advantage is 0.41 xPts.

Celtic lead by 16 points after 29 games.