After an interminable international break, the SPFL Premiership was back with Celtic at Livingstone and The Rangers hosting Hibernian.
The impact of big calls being incorrect can then be evaluated using the framework outlined here -> Honest Mistakes in the SPFL.
30/03/24 The Rangers vs Hibernian
Incident 1
Referee David Dickinson Game Minute 20th Score At Time 0-0
Incident Triantis and Souttar challenge for a corner cross Outcome No decision; Penalty to TRFC following VAR review Evidence BBC iPlayer - Sportscene - Premiership Highlights 2023/24: 30/03/2024
At 2:51
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict Initial on field decision: No decision but after VAR review, penalty awarded to Rangers and Triantis cautioned.
Corner comes across and the two players both jump for the ball. Neither player makes contact with the ball and Souttar goes to ground clutching his face. In real time, I did not see too much wrong with this tussle. After watching the VAR slow motion footage, you can see the two players jump together and there does appear to a trailing arm from Triantis that catches the Rangers player in the face. This is clearly accidental and no intent at all from the Hibs player. This is clearly a subjective call as to if a foul has been committed and after consideration, I feel this was the wrong call to make.
The Hibs player jumps fractionally earlier than his counter part and is also higher. Souttar appears to make a more half-hearted jump to win the header and as such I feel it is more a case of him jumping into the Hibs player arm rather than the other way around. I certainly do not feel the on field decision was clearly & obviously wrong and once the clip is reviewed, I suspect the referee has seen the arm to head contact in slow motion and based his revised decision on this.
I imagine this split opinion at the time, but I would have liked to the see the referee stick with his original decision to not award the penalty.
Verdict: INCORRECT DECISION. No foul committed
Expected Points
Outcome
TRFC +0.46 xPts
Incident 2
Referee David Dickinson Game Minute 21st Score At Time 0-0
Incident Wright scores for TRFC from a penalty rebound Outcome Goal disallowed for encroachment following VAR review Evidence BBC iPlayer - Sportscene - Premiership Highlights 2023/24: 30/03/2024
At 4:04
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict Initial on field decision: Goal to Rangers but after Var review goal disallowed for encroachment.
We see Tavernier’s penalty saved and then Wright follows in and slots home the rebound. After VAR review the goal is correctly disallowed as Wrights foot is just inside the 18 yard box as Tavernier strikes the penalty. Similar to offside decisions reviewed by VAR, there is no element of subjectivity here, its more black & white. He is either in or out the box and in this case by virtue of his right boot he is adjudged already in the box and therefore encroaching.
Correct decision in law, although I would say without the benefit of VAR, with how tight this call was, without VAR I would be incredibly surprised if any referee or assistant referee would have seen the encroachment given how marginal it was.
Verdict: CORRECT DECISION
Expected Points
Outcome
No impact
31/03/24 Livingston vs Celtic
Incident 1
Referee Don Robertson Game Minute 37th Score At Time 0-0
Incident Kyogo goes down in the box under challenge from Devlin Outcome No decision: it is unclear if any VAR review took place Evidence BBC iPlayer - Sportscene - Premiership Highlights 2023/24: Highlights: Livingston v Celtic
At 6:03
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict Initial on field decision: No decision, VAR reviewed as well.
Low ball gets played into the penalty area, Kyogo tries to get to the ball before the defender and from the resulting challenge, the Celtic player goes to ground claiming a foul.
In real time, Devlin didn’t appear to get much on the ball and upon watching the slow motion replay my suspicions are confirmed. Devlin does not see Kyogo who comes from behind and as Devlin stretches his right foot to play the ball he only succeeds in clipping the rear left ankle of Kyogo. Very surprised that VAR did not recommend an on field review here.
Verdict: INCORRECT DECISION. Penalty to Celtic expected outcome.
Expected Points
Outcome
Celtic -0.54 xPts
Summary
My thanks as always to the Yorkshire Whistler.
This season was looking more promising in terms of refereeing standards. The error rate as identified by the independent expert was down from over 30 percent to around 20 percent. Celtic seemed to be getting the penalties expected, for example. There was still a relative lack of jeopardy down Ibrox way of course.
But since John Beaton decided to re-referee the game at Tynecastle and scupper Celtic from getting ahead in a very tight title race with a very lucrative Champions League pot at the end of it, we seem to be regressing.
Two very poor calls this week, who benefits? The failure of Alan Muir on VAR at Livingston to check the challenge on Kyogo AT ALL (at best if there was a review, it was over in 10-15 seconds) is baffling.
In terms of the overall position:
The Rangers have 0.84 MORE points and Celtic 1.37 LESS than expected due to the impact of Honest Mistakes. The Rangers are benefiting by an estimated 2.21 xPts due to the impact of honest mistakes.
Celtic lead by one point having played one game more.
Note: due to a cut-and-paste error by the author (a genuine honest mistake if you will) The Rangers xPts total was inflated by 0.15 – now corrected this issue.