Honest Mistakes: Week Eight

You've got to hand it to the Duk-ing Dons

All eyes were on Celtic Park as Nick Walsh took charge of the country's top two sides. The following day, third-placed The Rangers slipped to defeat at Kilmarnock in an uneventful match regarding big calls.

The impact of incorrect big calls can be evaluated using the framework outlined here -> Honest Mistakes in the SPFL.

19/10/24 Celtic vs Aberdeen

Incident 1

Referee: Nick Walsh

Game Minute: 70^th

Score At Time: 2-2

Incident: Duk scores for Aberdeen following a free kick and kick down.

Outcome: Goal to Aberdeen disallowed following VAR review for handball against Duk.

Evidence: https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m0024bgq/sportscene-premiership-highlights-202425-19102024

At 9.06

Yorkshire Whistler Verdict:

Initial on-field decision: Goal to Aberdeen; VAR review leads to goal disallowed for handball

Duk scores from close range when he makes connection with a cross, however on review we see the ball does accidentally hit his right arm before the ball ends up directly in the goal from this last touch.

This is that slightly different aspect of Law 12 Fouls/Misconduct that clearly states:

•                          scores in the opponents’ goal:

o   directly from their hand/arm, even if accidental,

o   immediately after the ball has touched their hand/arm, even if accidental

So even if the handball is accidental (which it was) and his body shape was not made unnaturally larger that could not be justified (which could be justified in that passage of play) it was still a correct decision to rule out the goal as they scored directly from the handball.

Now if the ball had then gone onto a team mate who then scored after the initial accidental handball by Duk we could well have seen a goal stand. But in this instance the right outcome was arrived at.

Verdict: CORRECT decision

Expected Points Outcome: No impact

Incident 2

Referee: Nick Walsh

Game Minute: 90^th

Score At Time: 2-2

Incident: Duk stops Johnston shot on the line.

Outcome: No decision following VAR review.

Evidence: https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m0024bgq/sportscene-premiership-highlights-202425-19102024

At 12:44 and 20:57

Yorkshire Whistler Verdict:

Initial on-field decision: No decision after VAR review

Duk throws his body literally on the line to block a last-minute goal-bound shot from Johnston and there appears to be the question of a potential handball here.

I’ve watched this back numerous times from three different angles and, on balance, feel the correct outcome was probably arrived at.

Duk has little reaction time, tries to block the shot and I believe the ball hits his thigh and then left arm straight after. He looks to twist his chest towards the ball which sees his arm actually swing back in behind his body as it gets hit by the ball.

Accidental definitely and as the arm isn’t actually extended outwards I would say his body shape is justifiably larger in this particular incident. A subjective decision made by the referee that is certainly not clear and obvious enough of an error, to warrant an on-field review.

Verdict: CORRECT decision

Expected Points Outcome: No impact

Summary

My thanks as always to the Yorkshire Whistler.

A relatively quiet week but some big calls to dissect nonetheless.

This leaves the overall position thus:

Celtic have 0.46 MORE expected points, and The Rangers also have 0.46 MORE due to the impact of Honest Mistakes. So, no “advantage” for either team.

Celtic lead by six points after eight matches.