Is Martin Right?

A guest article from Stephen McGeouch. WARNING! There might be more maths than fitba in this article.

Stephen ponders whether Martin O’Neill is right to dismiss expected goals.

Last season was a turbulent one for Celtic FC and its fans. The club seemed dysfunctional at every level, and relationships were strained between the players and coaches, the board, and the fans. Performances were patchy. There was no plain sailing as the club was buffeted by storms for the duration of the campaign. Like, I am sure, most other Huddle Breakdown readers and listeners, one event shocked me to my core - Martin O’Neill said that he didn’t much care for Expected Goals!

How could The Blessed Martin dismiss the foundational metric of probability-based football analysis so casually? My soul was torn by his treacherous disdain for the Mother of All Metrics.

Aye, well maybe. Let’s take a closer look at what we get from our favourite estimate-of-likelihood.