“We need a right back” has become a familiar refrain from the Celtic support in recent times. The January window delivered a Borussia Dortmund player capped regularly at age grade levels for Germany, and for whom the Westphalians paid over £6m to acquire. Jeremy Toljan started brightly but with Lennon back in the manager’s seat, it may be that Lustig, whom Lennon brought to Celtic in 2012, has the right back position again.
How do the performance numbers compare?
Defending
Two key composite metrics for defending:
Possession Won / Lost compares defensive event outcomes in terms of did Celtic maintain possession as a result of the action.
Defensive Action Success Rate (DASR) considers a range of defensive actions and shows what % of them were successfully won.

The contrast in these key metrics is quite stark and what I’d expect between a central defender and a full back, not two full backs. Lustig is by some distance the more effective defender with a 19% higher DASR and 20% better possession win ratio.
Toljan wins more tackles than the Swede (3.07 per 90m compared to 2.12) but also loses more (2.16 per 90m and 0.43). The German makes many more tackles. Which may not be a good thing. I am a fan of the old maxim about Baresi barely needing to make a tackle due to his expert positioning.
Clearly there isn’t a metric for “positioning”, but we can infer as above. Toljan commits 1.59 fouls per 90m compared to 0.86 by Lustig. Looking at the 5 yellow cards and 1 red card he has racked up in only 791 minutes they are mainly due to being caught on the wrong side of attackers or letting attackers run off him. Lustig only averages 0.03 cards per 90m compared to 0.68 for Toljan. The young German seems to lack concentration and end up in poor positions.
The larger, slower and older Lustig manages to execute more interceptions than Toljan (2.49 to 1.48 per 90m). Furthermore, the Swede blocks more crosses into the box (0.6 to 0.33 per 90m). Even though Lustig misses more blocks (0.33 to 0.11 per 90m) the wider point is he is there to attempt the block. That is, he is in the right position.
Toljan both wins the ball back more often in the defensive third (1.82 to 0.9 per 90m) and loses possession in his own defensive third more often (1.14 to 0.76 per 90m).
It is no surprise the 7cm taller Swede is far more successful in aerial challenges winning 3.61 per 90m compared to 0.61 for Toljan.
All in, the Celtic stalwart Lustig has a clear advantage defensively.
Attacking
Of course, a Celtic full back has attacking duties especially domestically.
Using simple passing stats, Lustig completes 87% and Toljan 86% of all passes. But assessing Packing – the ability to pass and receive the ball where that pass takes opponents out the game - provides deeper context.
Lustig is a far more effective distributor from the back. He completes 7.23 passes per 90m that take opponents out the game compared to 5.12 by the German. But considering the other side of that transaction, receiving the ball, Toljan receives 7.62 pack passes per 90m compared to 4.08 for Lustig. Toljan is more effective making forward runs into space with his superior pace. This suggests Toljan may be more suited to a wing back role.
Indeed, the German attempts slightly more crosses (3.53 to 3.18 per 90m) but Lustig is more accurate completing 0.63 crosses per 90m compared to only 0.11 by Toljan.
The Dortmund player actually created more chances (1.25 to 1.19 per 90m) but the Swede has more assists (0.23 to 0.11 per 90m). Indeed, Lustig’s Expected Assist per 90m (measuring the quality of the chances he creates) is 0.174 to 0.143.
Toljan gets into the opposition penalty area more often (1.82 to 1.43 per 90m) but Lustig is more successful in providing passes into the Danger Zone (0.7 to 0.34 per 90m).
All the above suggests to me that Toljan is a bit careless in possession. He lacks clarity in his final distribution. Lustig on the other hand is under rated as a distributor from deep areas. Whilst lacking the pace to drive forward as a pseudo winger, he is more measured in his final pass.
Conclusion
Another article for another day will show that Lustig’s performance levels are declining. However, 32-year-old regressing Lustig warrants selection over the 24-year-old expensive German. Toljan may improve and Lustig may further regress, but it would be a huge punt by Celtic to make the deal permanent in the summer. In the mean time ever faithful Lustig looks like he deserves his place.
And for Celtic fans we are back where we started “We need a right back”.