Danger Zone (DZ) Passes are those completed into the area most likely to yield a goal. The DZ is the width of the 6 yard box and the depth of the 18 yard box. Shots taken from here are more likely to result in goals by Expected Goals (xG) models.
These types of passes are important also because there is a strong correlation between the number of this type of pass completed and results. Simply, against better opposition you won’t get as many – 0 in Salzburg, 2 in Leipzig. Whereas against weaker opposition you tend to get more – 10 in Dundee and 9 against Heart of Midlothian in recent comprehensive wins.
Who are Celtic’s DZ botherers?
Set Plays
The most prolific providers of chances in the DZ are McGregor (27) and Griffiths (26). Griffiths provides 2.59 DZ passes per 90m which is 1.46 more than anyone else. However, the majority of his completed passes into this area are from set pieces (usually corners) – 22 out of 26.
The reason for the “however” is that chances from corners and set pieces are generally of lower quality than chances created from open play. At corners and set pieces the defence is as organised as it can be and heavy in numbers. Crosses tend to have to be aerial to get above the defenders in front of the near post. And headed attempts at goal are harder to score from than strikes with feet.
Celtic may not be particularly potent at corners as I have shown repeatedly but the more important point is that corners are not an effective means of scoring goals. Launching the ball “in the mixer” is very British, and not very fruitful.
The DZ passing data illustrates this well. Griffiths has created 22 chances from corners and set pieces and created 0 goals. McGregor has created 9 chances and has 1 assist from corners into this zone.
The average xA of the chances Griffiths is creating with passes into this area is only 0.082. The leading provider of open play passes into the DZ is Tierney with each pass having an average xA of 0.183, more than double Griffiths’ rate.
Across the squad, 33 DZ passes have yielded 1 goal from set plays. Overall, DZ passes from set plays are only converted 3% of the time by Celtic this season.
Open Play
A better measure of creativity, therefore, is to focus on DZ passes in open play. Here are the squad DZ pass from open play per 90m averages:

Tierney leads by volume (22 DZ Passes) with McGregor (17), Forrest (17), Lustig (13) and Edouard (10) the others managing double figures.
However, in only 4.43 complete matches (equivalent minutes) it is young Johnston who has the best rate at 1.13 per 90m and indicative of his potential. Gamboa’s is from another small sample of 4.23 matches. Tierney comes in third with Christie and Forrest not far behind.
Dembele’s 0.72 rate is another example of how his penalty box focussed actions are not wholly replaced by the other strikers.
Griffiths, Ntcham and Sinclair are the main attackers or creative players who fall below the squad average of 0.56.
Assists / Expected Assists (xA)
To illustrate the potency of such passes, Celtic have scored 35 goals from 137 DZ open play passes this season (26%). Forrest leads the way with an incredible 8 assists coming from such passes. Tierney is next on 5.
Comparing the number of assists with Expected Assists for DZ passes:

Forrest is having a great season but it will be difficult for him to maintain a rate of 8 assists against xA of 4.826. Similarly, Sinclair is expected to have 1.468 assists not the 3 credited. Sinclair does not get many passes onto this area (only 5) but with 3 assists leads the squad with 60% effectiveness.
On the other hand, both Christie and McGregor can expect their assist productivity to increase if they can keep putting passes into this area. Christie has an incredible 3 assists from only 6 passes into the DZ yet his xA is 3.907. McGregor is only seeing 6% of his DZ passes converted into goals. His corners are more effective!
As a squad, despite being below xG over the season, Celtic have managed 35 goals from DZ passes in open play compared to an xG of 32.375. It highlights the value of such actions.