Progress in Europe

How much of the progress was due to controllable factors and how projectable may this season's progress be into the future?

As the 2024-2025 season winds to a close, I think it is reasonable to state that a material positive within the season was Celtic’s performances and results in the Champions League competition. Like last week’s column and examining context with the league campaign, this week’s is to do similar with the Champions League.

First, let us begin with some measurable objective information:

1. Celtic finished 21st of 36 teams within the league phase on 12 points

2. Qualified for the knockout phase

3. Finished 21st in goal difference within the league phase (applies to rest of list)

4. Finshed 22nd in non-penalty goal difference

5. Finished 17th in non-penalty xG difference

6. Finished 18th in non-penalty xG

7. Finished 19th in non-penalty xG conceded

8. Finished 2nd in xG per shot

9. Finished 15th in xG per shot conceded

10. Finished 16th in xG from open play

11. Finished 16th in xG from open play conceded

12. Finished 26th in xG from set pieces

13. Finished 24th in xG set pieces conceded

I will stop on lucky number 13!

This list offers some robust context as to how Celtic earned the 21st place and 12 points - it was very unlikely a fluke or heavily skewed “variance,” as we are fond of characterizing weird unusual outcomes.

As readers are likely aware by now, and possibly sick of hearing, a primary building block within my analytical framework is trying to assign attribution to factors that are controllable and those that are uncontrollable. Each have variance within them, but at least the former includes a material degree of agency.

The latter is what I consider to be more like pure “luck.”

When I look at the 2024-2025 Champions League campaign, the on-the-pitch variance was modestly beneficial to Celtic, where we enjoyed the 12th most favorable total amount. Breaking that out into controllable vs uncontrollable we benefited from both - 9th and 14th of the 36 teams.

So while we were robust in performing well, there was also a bit of positive luck thrown in, as well as some controllable variance like good finishing and shot stopping.

Of course, those were all factors that unfolded once the teams reached the pitch!

Another hugely important uncontrollable variable is the draw. That is where I will spend the remainder of this column, as it was a material factor, in my opinion.

This article from August 30, 2024, shared Opta’s model methodology on the relative strength of the draw prior to the league phase beginning: