Soro for Brown?
By James Daily (@jucojames)
The signing of Ismaila Soro may be one of the most interesting developments to monitor over the remainder of this season. I briefly covered the implications of Scott Brown’s steady decline in my recent piece on Liam Donnelly and I will state my bias upfront – I believe Celtic should be upgrading that position. Is Soro really a potential candidate to supplant Brown as a first team selection? A comparison of performance statistics is difficult for a variety of reasons, but I will attempt to combine what I have surmised from the data along with several hours of scouting videos.
Soro-ful Context
The Israeli league is currently ranked 23rd in the UEFA club coefficient rankings, which is just behind Norway, Sweden and Switzerland – as a reminder, Scotland has moved up to 16th with the success of Celtic and The Rangers in Europe this season. Based upon a review of Passes Per Defensive Action (PPDA) and Challenge Intensity (duels, tackles and interceptions per minute of opponent possession), the Israeli top-flight has a style of play significantly less intense than the SPFL. For example, the lowest PPDA for a team in the SPFL is Ross County at 11.98 per 90 minutes, while the league average for the Ligat ha'Al is 10.41. The lowest Challenge Intensity in the SPFL is Aberdeen at 6 per 90 minutes, while the Ligat ha'Al average is 5.91.
On top of this general disparity in league playing style, Soro’s former club, Bnei Yehuda, seems to deploy a more defensive philosophy with low pressing and intensity. The club currently sits 9th in a league of 14 teams, and its most common formation this season has been a 5-4-1, which they have deployed 21% of the time. Soro has played most frequently as a right sided defensive midfielder in more defensive shapes.
The disparity in playing style between Celtic and Bnei Yehuda is stark. Celtic ranks 3rd in the SPFL behind The Rangers and Hearts in PPDA and Challenge Intensity per 90 minutes, with 7.85 and 7.5. By comparison, Bnei Yehuda ranks 13 of 14 in PPDA per 90 minutes at 13.5 – or almost twice as much as Celtic! Bnei Yehuda also has had almost exactly 50% possession this season, while Celtic are 2nd in the SPFL behind The Rangers with 63.8% possession. In addition, Celtic is a far more attacking team, having produced an xG per 90 minutes of about 2.30 in the SPFL this season, which compares to just 0.97 for Bnei Yehuda.
Heatmaps
With that information as context, here are heatmaps and some stats (all per 90 minutes) to compare between the two players:
The difference in color in the heatmaps is largely due to the much higher level of passing and possession at Celtic, as it represents total actions by each player. Otherwise, the positioning of Brown and Soro has been very similar this season. I think this generates an obvious question and has been a focal point of my issue with Brown’s playing time and role this season. Given Celtic’s dominance in possession and attacking versus much of the SPFL, why does one of our key midfielders have a heatmap that looks like that of a midfielder for a mid-table team who largely plays to absorb pressure rather than attack on the front foot?
Performance Stats
Statistically speaking, Brown and Soro are mostly similar with a few exceptions. The most positive stats in Brown’s favour are his rate of Interceptions and Recoveries. The fact that Celtic press opponents at a much higher rate than Bnei Yehuda could be a major factor in this disparity, but I think Brown’s anticipation and wisdom in reading the game remain excellent and should not be discounted. The stats which lean towards Soro have to do with his relative youth and athleticism, as well as what appears to be a more diverse set of passing skills.
Soro’s Dribbles and Progressive Runs standout and would add a different dimension to our midfield, as currently we rely heavily upon our Centre Halfs, and particularly Ajer, to break opponent lines while dribbling from the back. The combination of Soro having one more Progressive Run per game on top of having fewer Losses, and significantly less of those lost possessions occurring in his own half, suggest that his quickness and pace has him being less “caught out” in defensive transitions than Brown.
Soro’s stats and video highlights also suggest that he is a far more aggressive and creative passer than Brown. His Through Passes and Passes to Box are much higher than Brown’s despite playing on a far less creative/offensive team, and his vision and cross-field passing really stand out in the videos I’ve reviewed.
Finally, Soro being just 21 years of age suggests he still has some important potential development and improvement to experience, whereas Brown is likely heading in the opposite direction.
Conclusion
We obviously need to see him adjust to the speed and intensity of the Scottish game, but I am encouraged that his passing skills and athleticism may offer significant upgrades over the current version of Scott Brown.