Speedboat League 2025/26 - @ 7th December, 2025

The Derek McInnes quote that will become the theme of the season.

After a 0-0 draw with Motherwell, Heart of Midlothian manager Derek McInnes insisted that “the league table doesn’t lie”.

I wonder if he has ever met Tony Bloom. Or has he met him, talked to him, and failed to understand the words The Lizard imparts?

The success of Tony Bloom’s Starlizard gambling operation (and part of his empire may or may not be gambling on SPFL matches - I’m sure the vigilant Scottish sports press will be all over that), as regards professional football, relies upon one simple maxim.

Because Bloom’s gambling operation starts from the principle that the league table DOES lie. He was one of the first to recognise that. Whilst actual goals scored reflect what happened, if you are looking to predict future matches (i.e. for gambling purposes), xG is a better predictor than actual goals. I am sure his high-end gambling algorithms include many more complex attributes, but that was the starting point.

And as I will break down in the next podcast, this is the theme of the season. The differential between how teams have been performing and their outcomes.

In that spirit, and despite the outpouring of cognitive dissonance, outcome bias and general flame-producing products being applied to head covering material, here is yer latest Speedboat League.

Note: so long as all teams have played different numbers of matches, I’ll persist with average xPts per game as opposed to total expected points.