Speedboat League - The Basics of Football

Echoes of the classic Generation Game episode where Fabian Delph schools Pep Guardiola, much like the goings on at Celtic this week.

As the most tumultuous SPFL season in decades stumbles on, throwing up more plot lines as both Jimmy Thelin and Wilfried Nancy depart the stage, so we seek solace in the rationality of numbers.

Except this is not the reaction these guides (for that is what they are) will likely elicit.

This week especially, when minds are frazzled by derby defeat, will generate irritation levels at what “the numbers tell us”. Those levels could be off any imaginary radar Keith Jackson may possess.

A discombobulating feature of this season is that the trends in underlying performance veer in diametrically opposite directions to pervading fan sentiment.

· “Heart of Midlothian start the season brilliantly!” – actual performance levels are meh.

· “Heart of Midlothian have a stumble!” – actual performance levels improve.

· “First non “Old Firm” champions since 1985 – it’s a cert now!” – xG difference barely positive over last six matches.

· “Danny Rohl has mastered Celtic and Youssef Chermiti is the new Kris Boyd (???? – Ed)” – err, the new manager bounce appears to be over, and underlying performance is in decline.

· “Martin O’Neill – genius – he just gets the club and wins!” – underlying performance levels drop steadily

· “Nancy, get tae ….” – Celtic’s rolling xG difference touches the title winning 1.5 xG difference and is now highest in the league

Or, maybe, the data is just shite!

Well, the data is just the data. The interpretation of it is the analysis, and the analysis definitely can be shite!

Because pervading fan sentiment cannot be wrong, right?

This is what makes this season the most fascinating, and trying to analyse what is behind these trends is what we attempt on the podcasts and articles.

So – “Let’s have a look at the old scoreboard”.