Alan and I speak often about “variance,” but what does that actually mean? Obviously, there is a statistical definition we can all source quickly - here’s the first four from dictionary.com:
the state, quality, or fact of being variable, divergent, different, or anomalous.
an instance of varying; difference; discrepancy.
Also called mean square deviation. Statistics., the square of the standard deviation.
Physics, Chemistry., the number of degrees of freedom of a system.
With my background in financial markets, I tend to think of it as a blob - i.e. a blend of these definitions to be applied conditionally depending upon the circumstances.
Alan’s relatively new Speedboat League column provides a regular anchoring of underlying performance levels for SPFL Premiership clubs, and it provides an opportunity to explore further how it fits within my broader analytical framework, which I have labeled Expected Trophies.
From a top-down perspective, the amount clubs spend on player wages remains paramount, and a basis for a performance baseline. An easy way to think about that is a non-penalty xG difference table. From there, performance attribution enters the much more complicated picture.
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