
Brendan Rodgers was appointed Celtic manager on 23rd May 2016. The Deila reign had run out of momentum, increasingly characterised by sluggish performances in big games, and a one paced, predictable brand of football. My reaction to the appointment of Rodgers was one of curiosity. Not being overly familiar with Rodgers, and not considering “lifelong supporter” one of my key criteria, this seemed a choice with different risks to Deila. Here was an English Premier League manager, probably on EPL wages, without a stellar list of successes on the cv. What would he make of the Celtic squad and quality of player available to him? To what extent would the board support a man used to multi million pound transfers and wages?
His inauguration in front of an estimated 13,000 supporters at Celtic Park echoed the coming of Martin O’Neill and the manager commenced operations with a huge swell of good will behind him. Ultimately, as Walter Smith observed about managing Rangers, “you are only 2 defeats away from a crisis”. Equally this could be said of Celtic, to this day.
And so, as the season is behind us, what of the Rodgers’ performance evaluation scorecard?
Results
Domestic Dominance
Ahead of all the signings, the formations, tactics, goals scored and conceded, the manager will ultimately be judged on results. Simply on this basis, Rodgers has made himself unimpeachable (until a “crisis” arises”!). Whereas the league title was a non-negotiable target and duly delivered, Celtic have struggled to bring Cup silverware back to Celtic Park.
O’Neill managed 3 Scottish Cups and 1 League Cup in 5 seasons (40%)
Strachan managed 1 Scottish Cup and 2 League Cups in 4 seasons (38%)
Deila managed 1 League Cup in 2 seasons (25%)
Lennon managed 2 Scottish Cups in over 4 seasons (22%)
Mowbray managed 0 in less than 1 season
Delivering both domestic cups for the first time since 2000/01, and for only the 4th time in the clubs’ history, represents a significant achievement. No goals were conceded in winning the League Cup, whilst only two were lost winning the Scottish Cup. Whilst matching O’Neill’s inaugural season with a domestic treble, winning 43 of 47 domestic games and drawing the rest is a record that may never be broken.
What is perhaps more remarkable is that of those results, the draws could easily have been further wins:

In a low scoring game like football, dumb luck, an opposition player scoring a rare probability goal (King for Inverness CT), poor refereeing decisions (Madden vs TRFC and Robertson vs Ross County) can all lead to unexpected defeats never mind draws. Celtic led in all four games that were drawn, being hauled back level with minutes on the clock in 3 of them and missing a penalty in the other vs Partick Thistle. Effectively, Celtic were 5 minutes and one kick from Sinclair away from a perfect domestic season. I doubt any team will ever go so close to winning every domestic game in one season.
Expected Goals (xG) is a useful indicator of the shot quality – how many goals would a team be expected to have scored based on historically similar efforts. The xG model I use is very simple as it is free! Nonetheless it is a useful barometer. Over the domestic season, Celtic were behind on xG in only three matches and level in one:

This resulted in two draws and two one goal wins, which is indicative of how useful xG can be.
All “ifs” and “buts” of course. Rodgers complete domestic record stands at:

When comparing Rodgers to his immediate peer group (Celtic managers this century) he has certainly got points on the board when evaluating domestic records:

“Success %” awards 3 points for every win and 1 for every draw compared to the total available. “Win %” is simply the % of games won.
The table is sorted by % Trophies Won – the ultimate evaluation criteria for any Celtic manager. Strachan was very efficient, winning 50% of available trophies despite having the 2nd lowest overall Game Success %. By comparison, Lennon would be in 2nd place on Game Success but is 2nd bottom based on trophy success. Rodgers can only go down, but will remain top of this league if he can win more than 50% of domestic competitions entered.
Here is Rodgers first season compared to O’Neill’s first season (2000/01) – the last time Celtic achieved the domestic treble:

It is difficult, therefore, to see how the domestic results can be improved upon. We have seen that there was scope to have won some of the drawn games. Which makes the 2017/18 scorecard evaluation on this criterion a little tricky, as we do expect continual improvement!

European Odysseys
The challenges of European football competition in the modern era are multi-faceted for Celtic. Starting the season in mid-July, and with (currently) three qualifying rounds to complete before the end of August, the vagaries of the draw can throw up extremes of temperature, pitch condition, travel logistics and preparedness of opposition, some of whom are mid-way through their season. Should the qualifying campaign be successful, many of the aforementioned variables become more predictable, but you are them competing with players on six-figure salaries (per week!) who can cost up to $100m in transfer fees.
A new manager preparing a team for this challenge, when the transfer window is still open, signing targets have not yet arrived (Scott Sinclair) whilst trying to work through the abilities of a set of players new to him, is truly tested.
Deila had failed to get the club into the lucrative Champions League group stages, following Lennon’s two Group Stage appearances in his four seasons. Although qualification was achieved, it was fraught. Defeat in Gibraltar in Rodgers’ first game represents one of Celtics most infamous defeats given the ranking of the opposition. A last-minute penalty secured progress against FC Astana. The Groups were reached after scoring 5 at home to the Israelis Hapoel Be’er Sheva. A 0-2 reverse in Be’er Sheva reminded Celtic supporters of many European away performances over the last 30 years, but improved in the last 20 minutes to get over the qualification line, just.
His side were given a very hard draw against Barcelona, Manchester City and Borussia Moenchengladbach, and failed to register a win. A 7-0 defeat in Barcelona represents the clubs record European defeat. A 2-0 defeat at home to Borussia Moenchengladbach featured not a single shot on target. Performances improved, with credible draws achieved away to the English and German opponents. Therefore, qualification for the Group Stages represents a successful season for Rodgers – certainly objective met if not exceeded.
Compared to his domestic record, Rodgers will have room for improvements compared to his peers:

O’Neill and Strachan benefitted from automatic CL Group Stage qualification
The journey for Rodgers to any kind of European success (Group Stages and beyond) is more tortuous than his peers. O’Neill and Strachan both benefitted from automatic Champions League Group Stage qualification (kids be like: “wtf!”). Once again Strachan achieved arguably the hardest feat, qualifying twice for the Champions League Last 16, with an “efficient” record – least wins for best outcomes.
The team achieved only one clean sheet in 12 matches – at home to Lincoln Red Imps. There were no away wins and three away draws. All qualifying rounds saw home wins. There were no wins in the Champions League Group Stages.
There is certainly room for improvement in European football. An enhanced set of targets for next season might include:
At least 1 away win in qualifying
At least 1 away win in Group Stage competition
Clean sheets in all qualifying round home ties
At least one clean sheet in Group Stage competition
Average no more than one goal against over the campaign
European football post January 18
The side that started in Gibraltar was:
Gordon
Janko
Tierney
Ambrose
Sviatchenko
Bitton
Brown
Rogic
Griffiths
Dembele
Christie
No more than five of those players can be expected to start the new campaign. The team have had a full season to get used to Rodgers style of play. One should expect, therefore, improvement in performances overall. But as mentioned at the start of this section, there are many variables.
Player Trading
Results are paramount, and some leeway can be given if there are unfortunate defeats if signing strategy is sound. Rodgers has not over hauled the squad in his first season, and many existing players have been given plenty of opportunities to stake their claims. Neither was there a mass exodus.
Evaluating the players Rodgers has brought to the club (Ajer not included as signed prior to Rodgers):

Transfer fees are either from Soccerbase or reported in the MSM at the time.
I’ve used a simple traffic light system where Green = Success; Amber = Partial Success and Red = Unsuccessful. The successes were wonderfully successful – Dembele and Sinclair have managed over 50 goals between them and brought power and pace to the side.
Toure helped shepherd the team into the Champions League Group Stages and has probably brought more to the training ground and dressing room than on the pitch. Gamboa has probably played the role he was brought into play.
De Vries was heavily touted as a Rodgers favourite but did not impress and it is difficult to see what he will add to the team long term. Kouassi was signed outside of the Russian season and has taken time to get up to fitness. Sporadic appearances have not yet revealed obvious gifts, and the heft transfer fee will continue to inform expectations. But the young man needs time.

A comparison with his peers’ FIRST SEASON signings:

No one has come close to O’Neill’s stellar initial transfer period where six players were purchased and all became first team regulars. Strachan and Lennon also brought in players of high quality such as Nakamura, Boruc, Hooper and Commons with some notable fails. Lennon was given leeway to completely re shape the team. Deila did not churn the squad in his initial season. Mowbray’s buys were not a success.
Celtic still have a very large first team squad. Rodgers has been very keen to give almost all existing players an opportunity. Although the Loan market has been used extensively, and some youth players have had invaluable game time, the squad needed pruning with some sales, which largely has not happened.
Just by the numbers it is a mixed picture. Overall, the successes have been so influential Rodgers must be in credit.
Tactics and Playing Style
The teams Rodgers created at Swansea City and Liverpool were notable for their attacking intent. Liverpool finished 2nd in 2013/14 scoring 101 goals (2.66) and conceding 50 (1.32). His Celtic team started with 66 goals in 29 matches (2.28) up to the end of the Champions League Group Stage, with 34 conceded (1.17). By the seasons end 150 goals had been scored (2.54) and only 50 conceded (0.85). Attacking football has been a feature of a dominant Celtic side domestically, and in patches in Europe. What other traits have characterised the Rodgers debut season?
The Art of Judging Momentum
Momentum is possibly an unscientific term for an analysis site. I would posit that all supporters of football recognise it, even if they could not describe it nor measure it. Yet we know that is it exists. I recommend reading the e-book Momentum in Soccer (Higham, Harwood and Cale). Recognising it, for and against, and acting to either maximise or remediate is the mark of a proactive and positive manager.
On the evidence of this season, Rodgers seems a master of recognising the signs of momentum shift and acting accordingly.


It is noticeable that:
The huge majority of the matches were early in the season
Most of the matches were either European, Cup Finals and Semi Finals, or matches against our closest rivals
The art of doing nothing (not disrupting momentum) can be as important as trying to change momentum
Rodgers has Aberdeen worked out
As the season progressed, Rodgers team became more settled as he filtered out the players he wanted. I would posit that he therefore had the players and the style more established meaning less changes were needed to playing formation and personnel later in the season.
Positive Tinkering
As well as positively influencing game momentum, in general Rodgers makes positive, attacking substitutions and tactical changes. Examples of this are:
Brining on Sinclair, the day he signed, to score the winner away at Hearts
Griffiths and Roberts replaced Forrest and Bitton late on against Manchester City to try and chase the win
Attacking subs away to Ross County rather than hold 1-0, ends up winning 4-0 with Dembele and Sinclair scoring from the bench
Henderson on for Gamboa away to Borussia Moenchengladbach to chase a rare away European win
Away at Hamilton and down to 10 players when McGregor is sent off in horrid conditions on a poor plastic pitch. Keeps 2 players up front in a 4-3-2 and is rewarded with a 3-0 win.
A goal down at half time to St Mirren, brings on Roberts for Macka-Steven at half time and Griffiths for Bitton 8 mins later. 3 goals follow in 14m.
Home to Hearts in final game, brings on Rogic for Gamboa at half time. He immediately finds space between the lines and the 1st goal follows.
No one is perfect
No manager gets every decision right, and in to balance the scorecard, there were instances where Rodgers got his tactical calls wrong.

Squad Management
Rodgers has played Sinclair and Dembele whenever fit, and his other signings Toure, Gamboa and De Vries are usually on the bench. Otherwise, virtually the whole Celtic 1st team squad have been given a chance to impress the new manager.
37 players have been given game time or at least bench time.
Youth players have been given experience of the match day squad – Hazard, Ralston, Miller, McCart, Ajer, Johnston and Aitchison have all either played some minutes or been with the match 16.
Of the senior professionals only Commons has not featured at all in the match 16.
A number of senior players have been given opportunities and it would appear will get limited time in future – Janko, Ambrose (not at Hibernian), Toure, Bitton, Henderson, Mackay-Steven, Ciftci. Bitton has been designated a “special teams” player, often brought on to add control and close games out. The others have seen game time rapidly reduced in a ruthless manner.
There were an incredible 22 loan moves outward for Celtic players. Of those who are not young prospects, the future would appear uncertain for Allan, O’Connell, Christie and Fasan.
Rodgers managed the squad particularly well in December when the team had 9 matches in 29 days. Games against Partick Thistle saw eight and three changes respectively. Youngsters such as Miller were given game time. The football was not sparkling but as well as getting a 1-1 draw at Manchester City, all eight domestic games were won with an aggregate of 20-7 in goals.
Rodgers has notably adopted a more pragmatic style to ensure 1-0 away wins. Against Dundee way only 2 ½ days after playing Manchester City at home, a structured Celtic kept the home side at arm’s length to secure 3 points. Similarly, 2 days after World Cup qualifiers, and prior to facing Barcelona, Celtic played a containing possession based game away to Kilmarnock on the artificial pitch. Such games do mark out teams as champions.
Celtic have settled for a 4-1-4-1 shape as the season has progressed but Rodgers has drilled his players to be comfortable shifting shape within that, often going 3-4-3 or 3-5-2. Occasionally he has used a 4-4-2 diamond as well. The flexibility in tram shape is a welcome improvement given the previous two years of rigid 4-2-3-1.
Overall Rodgers has managed the squad in an exemplary fashion. Managing to win domestically whilst fighting o the European front, and negotiating fixture congestion in December. Many young prospects have been given debuts. Finally, he now has a good idea of the senior players that don’t have a future at Celtic. Throughout he has drilled the team to effectively change shape and formation as required.
General management
The final section of Rodgers’ balanced performance scorecard I’ve called “General Management” but involves the other aspects of the role such as media, player, fan, board engagement and management.
The Media
An insightful piece from the deputy editor of Footbal365, Daniel Storey, is worth reading “Brendan Rodgers and a reputation restored” regarding Rodgers and his time at Liverpool. His relationship with the press could have been better. As Celtic manager, Rodgers is never going to be forever known as the singular “Brendan”, nor will he be anointed a magic head garment nor lauded as the next Mourinho. That’s just the way it goes in Scotland. And Celtic supporters would not have it any other way, as healthy scepticism is the default setting of many, including myself immune as I am to “Messiahs”!
Rodgers has given the Scottish media precious little to get their teeth into. Not for him the Mowbrayesque statement about needing 10 new players as soon as the transfer window closed. Neither has he made a song and dance nor been drawn into endless tedious exchanges about foot and diets as was Deila’s fate. In fact, the revelation over improved player fitness was covered by Brown after the season had finished. If Rodgers believed the players were not fit enough and had poor diets it was dealt with from the off, and quietly.
He has been consistent in displaying humbleness regarding having the Celtic job, and of emphasising his happiness in the role. Rare controversy was taking Jason Cundy to task for criticising the Scottish game.
It could have started very badly of course. The 1-0 reverse in Gibraltar provided the Scottish media with gold dust as the “worst defeat in Celtic history” was declared. Rodgers was sanguine afterwards, claiming it was a 2-leg tie and there was no embarrassment. Whilst the tie will never be forgotten, given the end of the season and the trophies accumulated including Group Stage qualification, it is more a curio now. But the impressive aspect for me was how calm Rodgers was following that match. He could have blasted what was not really his team but if he did, any harsh words were in private. The second leg was negotiated with no drama.
Winning football matches tends to immunise managers from press adverse reaction and he undoubtedly has credit in the bank. A couple of defeats would test this. But overall, the worst excesses of self-absorption and psychobabble claimed by Storey in his article, have instead been replaced with a very calm and rational media persona.
Supporter Relations
Rodgers has been taken into the hearts of the Celtic support like no one since Martin O’Neill. The success and style of football has been consistent. His much-conveyed love for the club and history as a lifelong supporter appreciated. If there is any dissent I have not noticed it. But we do know how fickle supporters are!
Board Relations
The manager has been at pains to praise the board, the CEO, the majority shareholder, whenever possible. Backed with significant funds (by Celtic standards) to obtain Sinclair and Kouassi, and allowed to reshape the back-room staff, Rodgers appears to have established a great working relationship with the board. His complaints about the state of the Celtic park has resulted in a two-year programme of pitch modernisation.
With rumours of a Van Dijk dividend to come, and with Champions League and (presumably) around 55,000 season tickets banked, it will be fascinating to assess whether he gets his summer transfer targets. But for now, all is sweetness and light.
Player Relations
Best described as an iron fist in a velvet glove. Rodgers has given chances to, then passed on several players – Ambrose, O’Connell, Jancko, Toure, De Vries, Mackay-Steven, Ciftci all had a chance and were then moved out the picture. Commons has not had a squad place all season. Allegedly not slow in voicing his views, there have been no rumours I am aware of, of the player being unhappy in a disruptive way.
The only adverse player action played out in public has been the comments suggesting Griffiths needed to improve all aspects of his life to obtain better overall fitness during his January 17 absence. Consequently, Griffiths displayed a petulant reaction to being substituted against Partick Thistle. There was a great public display of making up, although some remember how tightly Michael Corleone hugs his brother Fredo!
The appears to have the respect that Deila never achieved, with Brown’s praise of him sometimes highlighting this contrast. But again, Rodgers is to be commended for handling the existing players with dignity, whilst assimilating his own players, all the while maintaining squad discipline and control.
Summary
A quick recap on Rodgers’ scorecard (using the traffic light system again):

