Ange Postecoglou is the new manager of Tottenham Hotspur. This ends a two-year reign at Celtic that culminated in a record eighth domestic treble, and five Scottish trophies won out of six.
More than the largely positive footballing outcomes, Postecoglou has united the team and the support through a consistent brand of high energy attacking football that resonated with much of the Celtic Park faithful.
Yes, you must win at Celtic, but if you win with flair and playing attacking, inventive football you win hearts as well as minds.
Postecoglou, unlike many storied coaches, concentrated his efforts to make Celtic an attacking monster especially in Scotland. Pushing midfielders into attacking positions, inverting full backs to strengthen the grip in midfield, and focussing attackers on getting into high probability scoring positions culminated in a dominant season of 114 league goals and one loss in a meaningful tie. Another 29 goals were scored in nine successful cup ties.
That 0-2 league reverse at St Mirren stands alone in the season. And even then, six changes saw a centre back combination of Stephen Welsh and Moritz Jenz, in front of a pedestrian midfield of Aaron Mooy and David Turnbull with Anthony Ralston at right back was some way from the optimal line up. Add in the obligatory “honest mistake” for the second goal, and it was fine margins whether there could have been another invincible treble to defend come seasons end.
What was remarkable about Celtic under Postecoglou was the sheer consistency of attacking performances his sides were able to manage. Once renowned for struggling against low blocks, and with Livingston and St Mirren perhaps cracking the code with 5-3-2 formations that flooded the defensive areas but caused issues on the counterattack, rival strategies were dealt with in time.
Football is an unpredictable game and the low scoring nature of it always provides a chance of an upset. Postecoglou came as close as anyone in my lifetime to effectively beat the system. In Scotland at least, his sides sustained a high level of expected goals and attacking intensity such that opponents were exhausted just keeping the score down.
He managed a seemingly perfect blend of possession control and attacking aggressiveness. Over time the counter press became so effective, opponents could barely get out their own half.
All manner of defensive alignments from high lines to low blocks in any shape you wish were summarily dismissed.
The five-substitute rule further tilted the field in favour of this style of football. Press as hard as you can forward guys because on 60 minutes onwards, we can change five of you for similar quality and barely drop the overall intensity.
Subs were rewarded with a dividend of great data for minimal minutes. For some, like Giorgos Giakoumakis, this was not enough, but Oh Hyeon-gyu gorged on his limited minutes as a direct replacement.
It was as if he’d mastered the game up here, domestically.
Europe was very different, and a failure to get past Shakhtar Donetsk despite dominating two games mean no European football post New Year. Celtic were mildly acclaimed for attacking intent but ultimately had no answer to the athleticism, attacking quality of RB Leipzig and Real Madrid. Also, Postecoglou’s aggressive press did not scale to this level of football when his team had 40% possession as opposed to 70%.
Emotion and Commotion
Let me first lay out that whilst I have had a while to come to terms with this situation given the chatter I’d heard from the middle of last week, I cannot get overly angry about this outcome.
Postecoglou has been very consistent in his messaging. Football changes quickly and that works in both directions. It also works for players and managers.
He clearly loved Celtic and has been grateful for the opportunity to land a mark in Europe.
He is also a hugely ambitious man nearing his 60s.
He has the opportunity, as @jucojames spelt out on the Huddle Breakdown, to bring inter-generational wealth to his family. Family is everything to him, and the chance to achieve financial security for his grandchildren and beyond resonates with a man who arrived as a child in a foreign land at five years old with his family having to give up a previously settled life.
He has had to dance on an uncomfortable pin the last week or so. He could not say “I’m staying” and equally until it is signed anything can happen.
It is just the nature of these things. Any ending will be unsatisfactory for those being left behind.
A Low Blow
His loss is undoubtedly a blow for Celtic.
Sourcing a new manager is disruptive in terms of time, effort and resources.
What will be the impact on the existing, remaining football operations staff?
Will the new man want to gut the backroom or work with whomever is left?
Which players may feel wedded to the fate of Postecoglou and now be unsettled?
What merry dance will the club be led in pursuing targets? The scars of the Eddie Howe fandango linger.
Are the targets that had always been considered even available?
As I outlined above, it is difficult to envisage any other coach dominating opponents to such an extent as Postecoglou’s side have this season, and indeed most of last. One meaningful league defeat from 20th September 2021 to 7th May 2023.
This is a team where the power of the system trumps individuality. The strength is in the collective organisation. Individuals are virtually interchangeable providing they respond to the triggers and cues, and fill the spaces expected.
It is hard to coach this and the Australian perfected it over the last 18 months.
That well oiled machine is now lacking its architect, its designer, the one person with the vision in his head of how all the pieces fit together.
Players have been recruited to fit into highly specific roles. How successfully can they adapt to new patterns and systems?
A large contingent has been recruited from Asian markets, and whilst everyone will have their own ambitions and life situations, how will the recruits from far away lands feel losing the man who knew they would be alright joining him in Glasgow? In general footballers are stoic and are used to the capriciousness of the sport, but there is a significant community of Japanese players who need to be kept onside.
It is all very unsettling but true organisational health and competency reveals itself when stressed. The spotlight turns to Celtic’s senior leaders to navigate the way forward.
That does not fill me with confidence.
The mindset that went from Roy Keane to Eddie Howe to Ange Postecoglou when last Celtic were in this situation does not scream “coherence, strategy, joined up thinking”. For me, this is the biggest risk in all of this. The nagging feeling somehow Celtic got lucky in stumbling upon Postecoglou rather than plotting a style of play, and management. Has Celtic’s weak core organisational structures and values been masked by the Aussie’s brilliance?
Anecdotally, Postecoglou wielded enormous power in terms of football operations. Has the organisation matured and developed under him – crucially modernised - or is there now a huge vacuum?
They say is it better to have loved and lost than never loved at all.
I would not swap out the last two seasons of attacking football and success. It has been relentless and enormously enjoyable.
I’m not sure we’ll see the like again, domestically.
Opportunities
All that being said, any change brings about the opportunity to grow and develop.
Domestic performances until the title was won were as near to perfection as football can be in my experience.
However, since the League Cup Final win, it has felt like the team are running on empty and stumbling a little to get over the line. Expected goals fell from 2.8 to 2.2 and injuries have seemed to be on the increase.
I have been struggling to think of the last 90-minute performance of consistency. Yes, the wins continued to be racked up but in the Derbies in particular, the players seemed to be doing “just enough”. It was thrilling for 27 minutes at Kilmarnock. A beach ready Aberdeen was dispatched on trophy day. The league was secured at Tynecastle but aided by a sending off. Maybe 4-0 at home to Aberdeen on 18th February?
After nearly two years of incessant “Angeball”, and relying on a relatively small core of players to achieve it, are double training sessions and practising at match pace sustainable?
As mentioned, injuries have started to creep up after a lull at the start of the season. The players look tired and Postecoglou himself has said the lads are running on empty.
How many times can you hear the same messages and respond to the same motivations once you’ve achieved the treble?
Like Marcelo Bielsa whose footballing philosophies Postecoglou’s style resembles, eventually everyone just gets exhausted.
And we must talk about Europe. Conceding 15 goals in the Europa League Group stages, more than any other side, then falling heavily to FK Bodø/Glimt could arguably be put down to shaping a team and prioritising the league and Champions League entry.
That Champions League campaign was ultimately unsuccessful with a bottom place group finish and no progression and no wins.
There were glimpses of attacking cohesion and for sure more salaried opponents were worried. But again, the defensive side of “Angeball” did not seem to scale.
I am settled on the view you cannot press with the same intensity off of 40% possession as you do domestically against inferior technical players when you have 70% possession. It is simply not physically feasible. Add in a failure to craft a midfield lacking pace and athleticism, and Celtic struggled to compete in the key areas of the pitch.
And the pressure on the defence that resulted saw eight goals lost to Real Madrid and five to RB Leipzig. Celtic averaged 2.23 xG against per game. At this level, once a team gets over 2 xG you can expect 5, 6, 7, 8 goal hammerings.
Postecoglou showed little inclination to directly address this other than to do Plan A better. Celtic have improved in their rest defence shape whereby the inverted full backs and the centre backs at least protect the centre of the pitch on transition.
But is it enough to move the dial in Europe and at least get a run deep into the Europa League? I remain sceptical that this thrilling form of domestic football scales to that level.
Because ultimately, it comes down to the players and the level they are at. It was, again, @jucojames that planted the seed in my head about the squad – are these players as good as we think they are?
Postecoglou has given high store to recruiting the man first and the player second. We have a dressing room of lovely young men. Who would not be proud to call Matt O’Riley, Jota, Kyogo Furuhasi your son?
But in football, you need nasty bastards as well. It takes all types to make a team and to achieve a balance of creative tension that keeps standards high.
Many of our players shine because the system is so strong. Relatively mediocre players like Carl Starfelt and Greg Taylor are competent and better domestically in this system where all know their jobs. It is admirable and makes sense in terms of the cost of squad building. Daizen Maeda is a monster of endeavour and counter pressing intent, but his technical limitations will always restrict his attacking potency at the highest level. These are examples. I could go through the whole squad from the stylistically compromised and gradually declining but excellent leadership of Joe Hart, to the incredible specificity of the role the star striker Kyogo has and whether changing his role would blunt his effectiveness.
But again, it only scales so far, and in the European arena those limitations are cruelly exposed.
I do wonder if we have recruited for character and cultural fit over raw quality of player. A good manager navigates that and forges a team from within.
Reasons to be Cheerful
It is now obviously a safe space for me to articulate the nagging doubts above that I have harboured as the season unfolded.
More positively, we need to keep cheering Ange on! Because his success is OUR success. Brendan Rodgers took Leicester City to 5th, 5th 8th in the Premier League, an FA Cup, a Community Shield win over Manchester City and a European semi-final.
If Ange is similarly successful, managing and winning at Celtic is seen as a credible step up to that higher level. Therefore, we will continue to attract ambitious and talented candidates. (Just don’t fall in love with them!).
And as regards timing, this is the best time for a manager to leave. We have the full Summer to regroup. The Pre Season Cup, Linked With Trophy and Bragging Rights Shields were always going to be beyond us as they are every Summer.
But seriously, we have Champions League football to offer. By far the biggest football budget in the country, an advantage which repeats year after year after year so long as we buy season books.
The squad is stacked with sellable assets on reasonable contracts.
There is a massive challenge for Michael Nicholson to unload perhaps up to ten players who appear to have no future in the club. And if anything, we need to accelerate the rate of squad churn to grow revenues and gradually upskill quality.
But this is a million miles away from the Neil Lennon / Peter Lawwell 2020/21 bin fire. A new manager knows he has a high mark to hit and the tools and resources available to make an immediate impact.
My biggest concern is our own board and their approach to managerial recruitment.
What should happen is Nicholson and Mark Lawwell with his big book of City Group knowledge should define a set of criteria and scour the world for talent that fits the football operation objectives.
What I fear is that Dermot Desmond and his UK and Ireland rolodex of limited pages will instead inform selection.
We might get lucky again, like we did with Postecoglou. We might not.
How do you feel?
I’m a bit sad its over but happy it happened.
The club is in great shape to overcome the challenges of incompetent and arguably corrupt governance, backwater league finances and delinquent near rivals.
The fans and the players are bonded, and the love is strong.
It is over to the custodians now, and we wait with trepidation to see whether we are getting the modern football club we deserve.