Is the humble foul the last redoubt for Scottish referees and their unfettered unconscious biases? Or is Celtic simply "normal" amongst high possession, high pressing sides?
Good stuff👍👏👏👏 To refute you’d need to believe the nature of the relationship changes from strongly linear to exponential once possession goes beyond a certain point e.g. 70%.
I had a great view of scales v hibs striker in the second half. A number of fouls by the striker weren’t given. A referee might see it as six and half a dozen but it went beyond that on a few occasions.
I did notice a couple of times yesterday that the referee waved play on after a foul by Hibs as Celtic still had possession , not sure that this would impact on the stats though
Interesting piece. Having watched the full game live yesterday, however, I cannot think of a single time when I thought we should have got a foul and we didn’t.
Which means Hibs defending of us was either brilliant or our attacking is so lightweight that it is easy enough to get the ball from us without any meaty dubious challenges needed.
But I hate this modern era of the opponent falling over the ball when our player gets near and getting the free kick to alleviate the pressure. But is it something we should be doing more off? Are opponents better at attracting fouls than we are? And this isn’t just SPFL, happens across Europe as well. Maybe we just aren’t savvy enough?
What a great piece. Have never considered slicing and dicing data on fouls awarded versus possession. Another layer of analysis to consider when watching games. As an aside, do any of the data sets capture odd looking handshakes between officials and players? Just wondering?🤔
Fabulous analysis. Let's keep up the pressure on Scottish refs. Just be shite to everyone?
Good stuff👍👏👏👏 To refute you’d need to believe the nature of the relationship changes from strongly linear to exponential once possession goes beyond a certain point e.g. 70%.
Hi Max i don't think it's exponential but slighly accelerating.
For every % increase of possession, you net concede 0.3 more fouls
I had a great view of scales v hibs striker in the second half. A number of fouls by the striker weren’t given. A referee might see it as six and half a dozen but it went beyond that on a few occasions.
I did notice a couple of times yesterday that the referee waved play on after a foul by Hibs as Celtic still had possession , not sure that this would impact on the stats though
Interesting piece. Having watched the full game live yesterday, however, I cannot think of a single time when I thought we should have got a foul and we didn’t.
Which means Hibs defending of us was either brilliant or our attacking is so lightweight that it is easy enough to get the ball from us without any meaty dubious challenges needed.
But I hate this modern era of the opponent falling over the ball when our player gets near and getting the free kick to alleviate the pressure. But is it something we should be doing more off? Are opponents better at attracting fouls than we are? And this isn’t just SPFL, happens across Europe as well. Maybe we just aren’t savvy enough?
What a great piece. Have never considered slicing and dicing data on fouls awarded versus possession. Another layer of analysis to consider when watching games. As an aside, do any of the data sets capture odd looking handshakes between officials and players? Just wondering?🤔
SPFL ref quietly puts away the Lanarkshire Refereeing Association uniform of tee, pen, card set, book, shorts, whistle... apron, sash and hood. :P
Frank
I need to add in Duels, Pressures specifically and counter pressures volumes and intensity.