Title Race Fine Margins

Post-split week 1

As the title race comes down to just 12 games, 4-each for Hearts, Celtic, and Rangers, results are truly all that matter. However, paying some attention to underlying performance levels may still offer some probabilistic value as to how to think about each matchup.

Of course, as we always warn, single game data and related metrics are to be taken with a grain of salt, as there are material limits to what event data measure, and what the associated modeling can help infer.

To highlight these limits, I created four videos to review all the shots for each of Celtic and Falkirk, then Rangers and Motherwell.

For each shot, the expected goal and post-shot expected goal values are shared, with my eyeballing of where keepers’ positions are relative to modeling an optimal angular position at the time of each shot.