There are rumours of clubs potentially bidding for Ntcham. He missed 19 games to injury and that hampered progress January to March. Prior to this I detailed his worth in Why Ntcham Matters. Now the season is over, how did his performance compare to last season, and compared to the squad?
Comparison to Last Season
Ntcham completed the equivalent of 28.18 matches, managing 2536 minutes compared to 3414 minutes in 17/18. And let’s be clear: his performance levels have dropped compared to his debut season. Let’s take a look at his scorecard.

Red = 10%+ reduction; Amber = 0-9% reduction or improvement; Green = 10%+ improvement.
Injury and absence have disrupted Ntcham’s rhythm. Most noticeably around defensive actions. His DASR% is down by 10% and he is now net losing possession whereas last season Ntcham was net winning back possession. If we include passing, his Possession Effectiveness is down 4%. He is creating 15% less chances, and has a rather measly assist rate of 0.04 per 90m compared to 0.18 last season. He is completing the same number of passes but rather less accurately. The young Frenchman is completing less of those crucial Pack Passes that break the defensive lines – down 5%. BUT his Expected Assists (xA) is only down 9% whilst actual Assists is down 78%. That is either bad luck (e.g. bad finishing by others) or creating poor quality chances (unlikely – see below). It is the same story with his shooting. The good news is he is clearly an avid reader of this site and has reduced his Shots Outside the Box from 84% to 72%. Not surprisingly, his Expected Goals (xG) has shot up from 0.199 per 90m to 0.343! But the damn ball has not been going in as his scoring rate is down slightly from 0.24 goals per 90m to 0.21. All this means his Expected Scoring Contribution has actually risen! Whilst actual Scoring Contribution has tanked. Conclusion? I’m concerned at his falling defensive stats as this may be an inference of work rate and general digging in. However, it looks like from a creating and scoring perspective, the numbers suggest he is due a bit of a regression upwards towards the mean. And that is good news for Celtic.
Squad Comparison
Ntcham’s principle differentiating skill set is his ability to pass through the opposition lines. This is measured by Packing and Impect scores. He continues to lead the Pack Pass table completing 8.94 per 90m. McGregor is next best on 7.81. Ntcham is the only squad member with a Pass Impect per 90m over 40 (41.74). But here is the surprise – Ntcham leads the squad with the highest number of Pack Receives per 90m of 8.94. This is indicative of finding space, taking in and controlling passes that take opponents out the game. Add that to the occasional dribble and Ntcham has the highest Total Packs per 90 of 18.49 and highest Total Impect of 82.01. To put into context the next highest are Izaguirre (surprised?) with 15.06 Total Packs and Christie (69.3 Total Impect). In other words, he is by far the most effective player at getting Celtic through the opposition either passing, receiving or dribbling. And that is a vital role. From a deeper midfield position than say, Forrest and Rogic, he we can assess his ability to be the fulcrum to moves that result in shots by looking at Secondary Assists – the pass before the assisting pass to a shot. Whilst Ntcham trails McGregor only by volume of Secondary Assists (1.63 to 1.76 per 90m) he leads the team in quality of Secondary Assists. Ntcham’s xA from such passes is 0.284 per 90m (oddly Izaguirre is 2nd by this measure). Ntcham’s overall Expected Scoring Contribution (xSC) is only a fraction below Rogic’s at 0.542 (Rogic has had a very poor season – see Rogic and the Slopes of Doom). It is easily higher than any other central midfielder.
Conclusion
There is no doubt Ntcham’s score card is more Red than Green denoting regression in performance. But he is suffering from under hitting xA and xG which should reverse. And more importantly, he leads the team in crucial metrics regarding ball progression and creativity. Those wanting him away should reconsider. To lose Armstrong, who was the nearest to Ntcham in profile, then the young French Under 21 star would be difficult to replace.