Inamura's First Blush

While my plan had been to write this week about a discussion amongst subscribers regarding Liam Scales’ passing, I decided to pivot after watching Saturday’s game versus Livingston. My muse?

Hayato Inamura

Cards on the table - I declared publicly that he was the new object of my “man crush” once it became clear that Lennon Miller would not be signing with Celtic. That crush formed due to the benchmarking exercise I conducted on him earlier in the summer, followed by more extensive video review and watching him in the preseason friendlies.

I think he has “it” - and by “it” I mean that fairly rare confluence of vision, technical ability, and decision making that can produce an outlier deep-lying playmaker.

Of course, even if I had “it” that would not mean I was suitable to play for Celtic…the whole 50-year-old overweight guy who is slow and cannot jump COULD be a problem.

But Inamura also happens to be reasonably quick, fast, and of a decent height. Yes, he is relatively slight in physique, so no one is going to confuse him with Kyle Vassell or other brickhouse-adjacent players Celtic often face domestically.

My bias and analysis ahead of Saturday’s game was that he should be a valuable player within the squad this season - as a rotation option for domestic games versus bottom seven-size clubs, and particularly in such games following midweek European fixtures.

That is an 88 second sample of video showing the sort of passes I observed when digging into his game time in Japan prior to signing with Celtic. Note, he was not pressured for the most part in the ones shown (I included a “bad” one at the end), but then that is kinda my point - what sort of games do Celtic face in volume each season…particularly against those bottom-seven-type sides that tend to play deeper defensively?

That was the section within the benchmarking exercise in which I looked at his data for duels, as well as running and dribbling with possession of the ball. His public data from the J-League indicated a top sprint speed comparable to what Alistair Johnston has posted in recent Champions League games, which was about 34 km/h.

Yes, he’s not the most physical player and he did play for a terrible defensive side in Japan - at left center back. He is highly unlikely to be ready to defend at a Champions League level, and particularly so in a position he has not played at professionally prior to arriving at Celtic, in a new tactical system, playing with a new primary spoken language, and in a country half way around the world from his homeland.

With all of that precursor out of the way, how did he do against Livingston?

This image shows a scatter plot of all 156 league games in which Greg Taylor played at Celtic, with possession value metrics combined to produce two variations labeled as the X and Y axis. The X-axis includes defensive actions, while the Y-axis excludes those - hence the strong positive correlation. In addition, neither include any shooting-related metrics. Inamura’s performance was shown in red.

Yes, the game was “against Livingston ffs,” but then so were a lot of the 156 games Taylor played at Celtic - and I mean “Livingston” in the sense of a team against which we dominate possession and defenders do very little defending.

To place the two graphics into some numerical context, his non-shooting value, which included defensive actions, would have placed him at the 87th percentile within all of Taylor’s league performances. His passing value per minute played would have placed him in the 83rd percentile.

Some additional context - Inamura was part of a heavily rotated lineup, without most of the primary starters playing around him. He did end up playing approximately 42 of his 100 minutes with a team far more representative of “full strength.”

Analytical Conclusions

Alan and I often state that single-game stats are usually best ignored relative to extrapolating anything into the future. What I show in the three images above from Inamura’s first game was descriptive - i.e. they help measure how he performed in that one game.

Placing this single game into a broader analytical mosaic is the job of an analyst, so I will render my own assessment, for better or worse.

The game did not occur within a vacuum, just as his performances in preseason did not. I actually prefer the idea of playing him in the “Taylor role” and inverting or even developing him as a defensive midfielder.

But even with all of the complexity of his signing, transition, and a manager who has singled him out publicly for his own reasons, he walked into Celtic Park on Saturday and posted a performance that put him far closer to Greg Taylor’s best than his average.

Was Greg Taylor ever ready to defend at a Champions League level? How about a teenaged Anthony Ralston against PSG? Jack Hendry? Paulo Bernardo? Nat Phillips?

How many goals would Inamura need to be central in helping create to offset the inevitable defensive howler(s)?

I do not subscribe to the logical fallacy of appealing to authority. It may very well be that Rodgers will have Inamura sent out on loan, and despite the poor history of Celtic placing players in productive loan environments, I will retain hope that Inamura’s would be different.

But like disagreeing with his decision to effectively swap Hyeon-Gyu Oh for Adam Idah, along with many others he’s made throughout his managerial career, this would be a very poor decision on squad construction and resource utilization.

Celtic are likely never going to be able to carry duplicate depth across all positions at a Champions League level, which is a laughable criteria given the frequency with which we field starters who are similar - including the striker Rodgers wanted last summer.

I believe Celtic would be better off looking to optimize this season’s squad, and Inamura could be a very valuable player in accomplishing that objective.